194 replies to this topic

[Traveler]

Its the Russians. They want to raise the price of oil. /s . Sure does look like a false flag op.

[D. C. Sessions]

LFC, on 07 June 2019 - 01:38 PM, said:

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A top US military official just said the Iranian threat against Americans in the Middle East remains “imminent,” but no major attacks have occurred mainly because of swift US action over the past month.

Elephant repellent FTW!

[LFC]

The U.S. is claiming that this is video of a Revolutionary Guard boat removing an unexploded limpet mine from the side of one of the tankers. Uuuuuuh, why would they bother removing it unless it's a specific Iranian designed and manufactured mine? And why would they use an easily identifiable and traceable mine? Color me skeptical.

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The U.S. military on Friday released a video it said shows Iran’s Revolutionary Guard removing an unexploded limpet mine from one of the oil tankers targeted near the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting the Islamic Republic sought to remove evidence of its involvement from the scene. Iran denies being involved, accusing the U.S. instead of waging an “Iranophobic campaign” against it.

The U.S. Navy rushed to assist the stricken vessels in the Gulf of Oman, off the coast of Iran, including one that was set ablaze Thursday by an explosion.

The ships’ operators offered no immediate explanation on who or what caused the damage against the Norwegian-owned MT Front Altair and the Japanese-owned Kokuka Courageous. Each was loaded with petroleum products, and the Front Altair burned for hours, sending up a column of thick, black smoke.

There's a photo at this link that supposedly shows the damage and a mine. Notice that the damage they show (and the damage earlier) is always conveniently well above the water line so the ships don't risk sinking. Also notice that nobody has died. If these are Iranian terrorist attacks meant to inflict serious damage then they suck at it.

[LFC]

The Japanese owner of one of the tankers contradicts the U.S. on how the attack on their boat was carried out.

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Yukaka Katada, the owner of one of the stricken oil tankers crippled in explosions in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday, says the U.S. is wrong about the way the attack was carried out. Speaking at a press conference in Tokyo on Friday, he contradicted Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the U.S. Navy, which released a video that purports to show an Iranian patrol boat removing a limpet mine from the port side of the Kokuka Courageous. Katada said his ship was attacked on the starboard side by a flying object, not by a mine. “It seems that something flew towards them. That created the hole, is the report I’ve received,” Katada said, according to the Financial Times. “It seems there was a high chance they were attacked by a flying object. The impact was well above the water. I don’t think it was a torpedo.” The Japanese ship owner did not say who might be responsible for the attack. Iran has vehemently denied it was involved.

[golden_valley]

LFC, on 14 June 2019 - 06:57 AM, said:

The Japanese owner of one of the tankers contradicts the U.S. on how the attack on their boat was carried out.

Hmmm and how does this play with Abe's visit to Iran on Wednesday this week?

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The chief cabinet secretary, Yoshihide Suga, said Mr. Abe would use the visit as an opportunity to encourage Iran’s leaders to “ease regional tensions.” And Mr. Abe, speaking at Haneda Airport in Tokyo before leaving for Iran, said he wanted Japan to “play whatever role it can to promote peace and stability in the region.”

The formulation seemed like a step down from the grander vision Mr. Abe described during meetings late last month with Mr. Trump in Tokyo, where the prime minister called for “close collaboration” between the United States and Japan to prevent tensions with Iran from turning into armed conflict.

[LFC]

golden_valley, on 14 June 2019 - 10:50 AM, said:

Hmmm and how does this play with Abe's visit to Iran on Wednesday this week?

[LFC]

Juan Cole puts some perspective on "Benghazi Mike" Pompeo's history and current statements. He's lied before and there's no reason to believe him this time. Then of course there's Bolton...

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The mysterious mines that blew up two tankers, one of them Japanese-owned and operated, on Wednesday, sent a frisson of fear through the Gulf, since it was clear that Trump warmongers would blame Iran and then use the incident as a springboard to war.

Despite the confident pronouncements of “Benghazi Mike” Pompeo at his brief news conference, the fact is that US intelligence hasn’t had time or access to come to a firm conclusion about the author of the mine attack.

Pompeo’s people put out grainy video of some sort of small ship coming alongside one of the tankers and then leaving peacefully. Since this doesn’t look very much like an attack, they are alleging that the Iranians were taking away an unexploded mine. That doesn’t make any sense at all, and the video again needs to be carefully analyzed.

Pompeo alleged that only the Iranians had the expertise to deploy these mines.

We heard this crock for 8.5 years in Iraq– all shaped charges had to be Iran-backed, even those of al-Qaeda, because Iraqis didn’t have the expertise. Shaped charges are a simple WWII technology and the US invaded Iraq out of fears it was so sophisticated that it could construct an atomic bomb. But Iraqi Sunnis couldn’t make a shaped charge. Sure. Had to be Iran, helping those hyper-Sunni al-Qaeda. Very likely story.

In Iraq War days I was told that the Rumsfeld Department of Defense put out so much such arrant nonsense as anonymous news articles planted in the Iraqi press that some Defense Intelligence Agency analysts used to read my blog, confident that I would suss our the psyops horse manure and give an accurate picture. The Bush administration produced so much fake news about Iraq that Bush analysts were in danger of being fooled by it and recommending policy on the basis of it!!

So about the allegation that no other forces could have deployed mines in the Gulf area.

Just last December, 86 mines were swept in the Red Sea, the planting of which was attributed to the Houthi rebels of Yemen. The Straits of Hormuz might seem far away. But once they’re already on the sea in a small ship, all they’d have to do pack some mines and ply the waters off southern Yemen and Oman over to the Straits of Hormuz, and they could have easily committed this act.

[JackD]

I think that Pompeo is claiming the Houthis did it with mines supplied by Iran as opposed to the Iranians themselves having done it. That doesn't mean that it's true, of course.

[LFC]

JackD, on 14 June 2019 - 04:18 PM, said:

I think that Pompeo is claiming the Houthis did it with mines supplied by Iran as opposed to the Iranians themselves having done it. That doesn't mean that it's true, of course.

They claimed it was a Revolutionary Guard boat. That's about as direct as blaming gets. Unless, of course, they decided that didn't play well and have since "altered their assessment." Here's another report on what they claimed.

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The US military has released video footage which it says shows an Iranian military patrol boat approaching one of two tankers attacked in the Gulf of Oman, to support the Trump administration’s claims that Iran was responsible.

The blurry black and white footage, taken from the air, shows a small military boat alongside the Japanese-owned Kokuka Courageous, and someone standing up on the prow of the boat to remove an object from the tanker’s hull. The boat then pulls away from the tanker.

US officials were quoted as saying the boat was an Iranian Revolutionary Guard patrol boat approaching the tanker after it was attacked on Thursday, and the object removed was an unexploded limpet mine. It was unclear whether it was being alleged the Iranian sailors were detaching the mine in order to remove evidence.

[HockeyDon]

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someone standing up on the prow of the boat to remove an object from the tanker’s hull.

Uh, what? Years ago I worked with a guy that was EOD when he was in the military. From the various stories he told, one simply doesn't walk up and casually handle unexploded ordnance, let alone do so from standing on the prow of a ship, no matter how calm the waters might be.

Perhaps they were willing to risk setting off the device in broad daylight, immediately after several other explosions rocked shipping in that area, including that very ship. That seems completely ham-fisted and incompetent. Basically in complete contradiction to the claim that this was a sophisticated and highly technical operation. I'd categorize these actions in the same level-of-idiocy-bucket as 'Trump is a very stable genius'.

[D. C. Sessions]

We've been assuming as a basis for policy for the past couple of decades that "terrorists" are so clever that they pose an existential threat to the USA and at the same time the brightest of them can't come up with any of the scores of ways that your basic engineering freshman can rattle off to bring down an airliner without being detected by TSA.

[golden_valley]

HockeyDon, on 17 June 2019 - 08:46 AM, said:

Uh, what? Years ago I worked with a guy that was EOD when he was in the military. From the various stories he told, one simply doesn't walk up and casually handle unexploded ordnance, let alone do so from standing on the prow of a ship, no matter how calm the waters might be.

Perhaps they were willing to risk setting off the device in broad daylight, immediately after several other explosions rocked shipping in that area, including that very ship. That seems completely ham-fisted and incompetent. Basically in complete contradiction to the claim that this was a sophisticated and highly technical operation. I'd categorize these actions in the same level-of-idiocy-bucket as 'Trump is a very stable genius'.

A "deepfake" video?

[HockeyDon]

I don't know what to call it.

I'm reluctant to claim that I'm way smarter, more clever, and more devious than anyone in the governments on either side of this incident. On the other hand, knowing nothing of how operations like this get carried out and using only my imagination I can think of several ways this could have been handled that wouldn't seem so completely incompetent and bungled at every turn.

My understanding so far is thus:
1. Put limpet mines on some oil tankers.
2. Make sure it's above water level so it's super visual.
3. Make sure it's more of an inconvenience than an actual threat.
4. Do it against a ship from Japan, while they're on an official visit.
5. Ignore all the publicity sure to surround these and other attacks.
6. Sail up in broad daylight to remove an unexploded mine.

[JackD]

They're sending more troops to the Middle East.
Oh, shit!

[baw1064]

golden_valley, on 17 June 2019 - 12:20 PM, said:

A "deepfake" video?

I'd say a kiddie-pool-fake video.