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Austerity (ad infinitum)


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#1 George Rowell

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Posted 29 June 2019 - 09:52 PM

I just read two headlines days apart. "Europe turns on spending taps as austerity comes to an end" (FT Feb 9 2019) and "Eurozone hovers on the brink of recession - but Germany pushes for more austerity". (Telegraph Feb 5 2019). Do not bother to read them! The fact is little has changed, austerity seems to be with us for a long time. The UK for going on 15yrs and the US for arguably 20yrs.

I believe austerity will simply continue with the (bulk of the) middle class getting what they voted for. I have said this numerous times but what interests me is the impact it has on the growth of industries like debt, gambling, gaming, IT, security and entertainment.

I am going to do some research and post it here and bounce it around.
A doctor knows a little about a lot. A specialist knows a lot about a little. In time the doctor knows less and less about more and more and the specialist knows more and more about less and less until ultimately the doctor knows nothing about everything and the specialist knows everything about nothing.

#2 George Rowell

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Posted 30 June 2019 - 12:42 AM

O & OE please. I formulated this stuff for fun. The methodology is crap, it is just find trends but it seems student loans are doing well and with entertainment the traditional sources are not as profitable as say gaming companies.

Student Loans top 4 Thebalance
Sofi - Social Finance Inc-----Started by four students. From nothing in 2012 to lending 4billion now. No IPO yet.
Laurel road----------------------Started 2013 taken over by keybank. Revenue 54M.
Lendkey--------------------------Started 2017 by investors. Now loans 2billion out. No IPO yet.
SallieMae------------------------We all know about SallieMae.

Entertainment top ten Source (Investopedia) ; 5yr stock price change
Comcast-----------------24.8/43.4 prof 18.6 +75%
CBS----------------------64.5/49.2 loss 15.30 -23%
DirectTV------------------------------------------
Dish Network Co----66.4/38.40 loss 28.00 -64%
Netflix------------------65.8/339.9 prof 274.1 +421%
Time Warner-------------------------------------
Fox-------------------------------------------------
Viacom------------------88.3/29.7 loss 59.03 -67%
Disney------------------86-4/139. prof 53.20 +61%
Wanda Media-----------------------------------------

Top Gaming Companies - Source Newzoo ; 5yr stock price change
Tencent----------------16.2/45.6 prof 29.1 +181%
Sony--------------------16.7/53.0 prof 36.3 +225%
Microsoft---------------41.6/137. prof 96.3 +234%
Apple-------------------96.4/198. prof 102. +106%
Activision--------------26.7/46.0 prof 19.5 +75% (Took a big hit in Nov 2018. on an earning prediction. Changed management and stayed down)

Over the same period the NASDQ increased 83%

Of course choosing the top ten and so on is a self fulfilling act but it does tentatively suggest a link to austerity.
There are many others that I reckon linked to austerity. I am going to look at betting, security and accounting at some time.
A doctor knows a little about a lot. A specialist knows a lot about a little. In time the doctor knows less and less about more and more and the specialist knows more and more about less and less until ultimately the doctor knows nothing about everything and the specialist knows everything about nothing.

#3 George Rowell

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Posted 01 July 2019 - 02:16 AM

Did some research into gaming and came to a dead end. Take overs, stock market suspensions, strange activity, management changes, changes in taxation and new laws for gambling all make it difficult to take a simple snapshot.

On another tack, property acquisition for renting was explored by a BBC documentary some years ago but still relevant which showed that London had attracted huge foreign investments, a lot of it shady, to buy and build property for people caught in the rent trap.
A doctor knows a little about a lot. A specialist knows a lot about a little. In time the doctor knows less and less about more and more and the specialist knows more and more about less and less until ultimately the doctor knows nothing about everything and the specialist knows everything about nothing.





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