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2020 Presidential & Congressional Elections


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#661 Traveler

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Posted 15 July 2019 - 07:48 AM

On a related note, how Biden's polling has slipped. Still ahead, but a remarkable decline, with most (22% decline) among the "somewhat liberal" tranche. I wonder how they define that. I am there in the "moderate conservative" tranch that declined by 8%, next to the smallest decline of 5% by blacks.

I thought I would be considered somewhat liberal. I guess folks who believe in UBI policies and redistribution via tax reform are now conservative? My the Overton Window has shifted.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
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#662 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 15 July 2019 - 10:56 AM

View PostTraveler, on 15 July 2019 - 07:48 AM, said:

I thought I would be considered somewhat liberal. I guess folks who believe in UBI policies and redistribution via tax reform are now conservative? My the Overton Window has shifted.

And this is one of my key replies to those who are afraid that the activist freshman class in Congress will scare off the increasingly scarce "moderates:" the shift in the window argues just the opposite.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#663 LFC

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 12:12 PM

View PostTraveler, on 15 July 2019 - 07:48 AM, said:

On a related note, how Biden's polling has slipped. Still ahead, but a remarkable decline, with most (22% decline) among the "somewhat liberal" tranche. I wonder how they define that. I am there in the "moderate conservative" tranch that declined by 8%, next to the smallest decline of 5% by blacks.

That article shows that Sanders has a higher chance of being a losing proposition. He's only popular with the leftest of the left. This upcoming election I'd hold my nose and vote for him (as I would have in 2016) but he's a poor choice.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#664 Traveler

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 01:13 PM

View PostLFC, on 17 July 2019 - 12:12 PM, said:

That article shows that Sanders has a higher chance of being a losing proposition. He's only popular with the leftest of the left. This upcoming election I'd hold my nose and vote for him (as I would have in 2016) but he's a poor choice.
Meanwhile 20% of Sanderites said they would vote AGAINST Biden.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#665 LFC

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 02:21 PM

View PostTraveler, on 17 July 2019 - 01:13 PM, said:

Meanwhile 20% of Sanderites said they would vote AGAINST Biden.

F***ing children who would rather drive around with "Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Bernie" bumper stickers than accept adult level responsibility.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#666 Probabilistic

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 02:23 PM

View PostLFC, on 17 July 2019 - 12:12 PM, said:

That article shows that Sanders has a higher chance of being a losing proposition. He's only popular with the leftest of the left. This upcoming election I'd hold my nose and vote for him (as I would have in 2016) but he's a poor choice.

I haven't been able to bring myself there yet. Gag reflex is too strong. I reassure by telling myself we would not have to confront this choice - bozo vs crank.

#667 AnBr

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 04:12 PM

Did someone say Bozo?

Posted Image
“Trump’s a stupid man’s idea of a smart person, a poor man’s idea of a rich person & a weak man’s idea of a strong man.”

— Fran Lebowitz


“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937

#668 LFC

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 05:03 PM

538 says that Beto O'Rourke doesn't have a base within the Democratic Party, or at least not much of one, and the pool that he is potentially most attractive to is small and has other choices.

Quote

As my editors will tell you, I have a bad habit of leaving stories half-finished. Sometimes it’s because I get bored or busy, but sometimes it’s because the subject gets less and less newsworthy as I’m in the process of finishing a story.

That’s the case with a story I’ve been working on about Beto O’Rourke, who has become less relevant to the Democratic primary now that he’s polling at only about 3 percent. But the story may help to explain why O’Rourke has struggled so much, so I’m going to resurrect it in brief, bulletpoint form.

Here’s the gist of the argument: O’Rourke is probably competing for young voters more than for older ones, for white voters more than nonwhite ones, and for moderate voters more than for very liberal ones. (His voting record in Congress was fairly moderate, although the policy positions he’s staking out now are more of a mixed bag.) There are plenty of young voters, white voters and moderate voters in the Democratic electorate. But there aren’t that many who are young and white and moderate.

According to the Cooperative Congressional Election Study,1 63 percent of voters in the 2016 Democratic primaries were white, 51 percent identified themselves as moderate or conservative, and 56 percent were born in 1965 or afterward, per the Pew Research Center. Multiply those numbers together, and you’d expect:

63% * 51% * 56% = ~18%

…about 18 percent of Democrats to be all three things at once. That’s enough to form a real base when you’re competing for a party nomination, especially when Democratic rules require you to win at least 15 percent of voters in a state or congressional district to secure convention delegates.

But when you actually look at individual-level voter data, you find something different: Only 12 percent of Democratic primary voters are young and white and moderate. That’s far fewer voters to go around, especially when you’re also competing with, say, Pete Buttigieg for the same voters.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#669 LFC

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 05:06 PM

Susan Collins's record of mouthing some self-serving crap and then folding to vote with Republicans is catching up with her. She now has the second highest disapproval rating in the Senate next to Mitch McConnell.

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A month and a half ago, the pollster Critical Insights released a poll that said Republican Sen. Susan Collins’s approval rating had dropped to 41 percent and her disapproval rating had risen to 42 percent. But it was just one poll, and others found that she still enjoyed strong support.

However, Morning Consult’s quarterly poll of senators’ approval ratings, released on Wednesday night, agrees that Collins’s popularity is underwater. Only 45 percent of Mainers said they approved of her compared with 48 percent who said they disapproved, and only one senator (Majority Leader Mitch McConnell) has a higher disapproval rating than Collins now does.

This is a stark turnaround for Collins, who was once one of the most popular senators in the country. In the first quarter of 2017, for instance, Morning Consult gave her a +40 net approval rating (her approval rating of 67 percent minus her disapproval rating of 27 percent). But her reputation for bipartisanship took a hit last fall, when she voted to confirm Brett Kavanaugh, President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee who faced multiple allegations of sexual misconduct. Granted, her popularity was already on the decline before that vote (she had a +22 net approval rating in the second quarter of 2018), and it didn’t nose-dive immediately after it (it was still +15 in the fourth quarter of 2018), but importantly, it does seem to have polarized her support along party lines.

Before the vote, Morning Consult found Collins enjoyed the approval of most Democrats and independents, while Republicans were split 47-47 on her job performance. But after the vote, her net approval among Republicans surged, while it dropped with independents and plummeted among Democrats. In the latest poll, her net approval rating was +27 among Republicans, -2 among independents and -40 among Democrats.

That’s a bad trade for Collins, because Maine is a Democratic-leaning state (it has a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean1 of D+5), so she will need the support of some independent and/or Democratic voters to win reelection in 2020.


If she gets flushed out it will be goodbye to bad rubbish.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#670 AnBr

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Posted 27 July 2019 - 08:18 AM

Bernie Sanders fires staffer for union activities.
“Trump’s a stupid man’s idea of a smart person, a poor man’s idea of a rich person & a weak man’s idea of a strong man.”

— Fran Lebowitz


“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937

#671 gmat

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Posted 27 July 2019 - 03:26 PM

View PostTraveler, on 17 July 2019 - 01:13 PM, said:


Meanwhile 20% of Sanderites said they would vote AGAINST Biden.

They would vote against Biden in the general? Jaysus, that’s worse than being one of Trump’s White Trash Legion of Morons

#672 Rue Bella

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Posted 27 July 2019 - 03:36 PM

The Sanderites claim to fame is wanting to burn it all down. Why would they change their stipes now? They brought us the first incarnation of Trump, and very well might bring us the second.
What is wrong with these people? ~ PG

California Secession - Let my people go!

#673 Practical Girl

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Posted 27 July 2019 - 04:45 PM

I'm waiting. But just as in '16, I don't trust the country. And all I can think as I write this is "for god's sakes, how many more times do you have to say it?"

Jesus Christ, Himself, could become the Democratic candidate and still lose. I'm basically without hope.
Every woman needs a blowtorch.
---Julia Child


--- On September 17, 1787, as Benjamin Franklin was leaving the deliberations of the Constitutional Convention, at Independence Hall, in Philadelphia, a woman called out to him, saying, “Well, Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?”
“A republic,” Franklin said, “if you can keep it.”


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--- "Write hard and clear about what hurts"
Ernest Hemingway

#674 Rue Bella

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Posted 27 July 2019 - 07:25 PM

"Jesus Christ, Himself, could become the Democratic candidate" - Trump would just shoot him on 5th Avenue - and still win.


No matter who the Dem candidate will be, it should be a blow-out. Just as Hillary should have won in a blow-out, but didn't.

And now with Trump and his minions holding governmental reigns, there is an even greater likelihood of Russian interference. Who's going to prevent that in 2020?
What is wrong with these people? ~ PG

California Secession - Let my people go!

#675 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 27 July 2019 - 07:33 PM

View PostRue Bella, on 27 July 2019 - 07:25 PM, said:

And now with Trump and his minions holding governmental reigns, there is an even greater likelihood of Russian interference. Who's going to prevent that in 2020?

I'm not sure who would prevent Trump getting 115% of the vote, but I know who is going to prevent doing anything to head it off. (Easy -- he's already doing it.)
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#676 JackD

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Posted 27 July 2019 - 07:37 PM

20% would vote against Biden? Link?

#677 Traveler

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Posted 28 July 2019 - 07:15 AM

View Postgmat, on 27 July 2019 - 03:26 PM, said:

They would vote against Biden in the general? Jaysus, that’s worse than being one of Trump’s White Trash Legion of Morons

That was from an earlier article I posted here. Now it looks like that might have been overstated.

Quote

A recent YouGov poll, which asked Democrats to list all the candidates they were considering rather than requiring them to pick just one, also seems to suggest that Sanders has a relatively high floor of support. Among Democrats who were considering only one candidate, 28 percent were considering only Sanders, and 27 percent were considering only Biden. Everyone else was in the single digits on this question.

Here’s the catch, though: Only 28 percent of Democrats fell into the category of considering only one candidate. (By comparison, 67 percent are still considering multiple candidates, and 5 percent aren’t considering any current candidates.) So Sanders isn’t getting 28 percent of 100 percent — he’s getting 28 percent of 28 percent. That means just 8 percent of the overall Democratic electorate truly falls into the “Bernie or bust” category.
Well, that is comforting I guess. And apparently the same proportion of Biden voters wouldn't vote Dem. That I find perplexing.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#678 Traveler

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Posted 28 July 2019 - 07:26 AM

View PostJackD, on 27 July 2019 - 07:37 PM, said:

20% would vote against Biden? Link?
I recall seeing that, and I thought I posted it here. But there are indeed elements of such stubbornness.

Quote

The 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Survey found that fewer than 80 percent of Bernie voters cast their ballot for Clinton, and 12 percent of them voted for Trump. Trump’s margin of victory in the three states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) that gave him his electoral victory was smaller than the number of Bernie voters who opted for Trump. Shocking, yes; unusual, maybe not. A 2010 Public Opinion Quarterly survey found that 25 percent of Hillary Clinton’s voters in the 2008 Democratic primaries voted for Republican John McCain in the general election, and not Barack Obama.
Interesting. Difference is McCain could be seen as actually worth voting for if you were a conservative Dem.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#679 Traveler

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Posted 28 July 2019 - 07:30 AM

While on the subject, check out this article on Warren voters vs. Sanders voters.

Quote

In poll after poll, Sanders appeals to lower-income and less-educated people; Warren beats Sanders among those with postgraduate degrees. Sanders performs better with men, Warren with women. Younger people who vote less frequently are more often in Sanders’ camp; seniors who follow politics closely generally prefer Warren.

Sanders also has won over more African Americans than Warren: He earns a greater share of support from black voters than any candidate in the race except for Joe Biden, according to the latest Morning Consult surveys.

For progressive activists, who are gathering this week in Philadelphia at the annual Netroots Nation conference, it’s both promising and a source of concern that the two leading left-wingers in the primary attract such distinct fans. It demonstrates that a progressive economic message can excite different parts of the electorate, but it also means that Sanders and Warren likely need to expand their bases in order to win the Democratic nomination.

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#680 AnBr

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Posted 28 July 2019 - 10:22 AM

Not directly relevant to 2020, but something to look out for a reoccurrence.

Computer scientists say they have strong evidence election was rigged against Clinton in three key states
“Trump’s a stupid man’s idea of a smart person, a poor man’s idea of a rich person & a weak man’s idea of a strong man.”

— Fran Lebowitz


“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937





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