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2020 Presidential & Congressional Elections


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#581 JackD

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Posted 24 June 2019 - 04:37 PM

That's what we need: more candidates!

#582 LFC

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Posted 25 June 2019 - 12:00 PM

Joe Biden's comments and Corey Booker's race card playing didn't move the needle even a little. As Josh Marshall said, "Twitter is not real life." He has a few observations about how the race is currently shaping up. In full:

Quote

Unsurprisingly, after a week of discussion of Joe Biden’s conversations with segregationist Southern Democrats in the 1970s, the controversy appears to have done precisely nothing to affect his standing in the primary race. Twitter is not real life. The activist-centric political conversation seems to have very little traction with the broader Democratic electorate. And yet, the race does seem to be changing. At least its contours are starting to come more clearly into view.

Elizabeth Warren, through indefatigable campaigning and reams of policy proposals covering almost every topic of public interest, seems to be emerging as the left/liberal, post-Trump alternative to Joe Biden. The most conspicuous development is that Bernie Sanders does not appear to be playing that role.

Another thought: With months of campaigning already under their belts there are 5 to 7 candidates who’ve managed to generate any public support at all. There’s the top five: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris and Buttigieg. There are maybe a couple others who have barely generated any public support but are still distinguishable from the great majority who have yet to manage even as much as 1% or even half a percent of support nationally or in any state.

All of these faux candidates should really get out of the race. Anyone can run of course. It’s a free country. But because of what happened in 2016, the DNC has created a hyper-fair, hyper-equitable system for structuring the primary contest so that no one will feel, no one can claim that they were shunted out of the process, had the establishment rig the contest in favor of others, etc. The rubber meets the road in the organizing of debates. The upshot of that effort is that Elizabeth Warren, in many ways the most interesting and important contender at the moment, is relegated to what amounts to the JV debate and is not even allowed to face the other 4 or 5 real contenders in the primaries. Everyone who can’t surmount the zero percent barrier, certainly after the debates, should just drop out.

Extreme procedural fairness, in this sense, can end up being unfair to voters.


That's about 70-80% who will need to go soon if they can't gain any traction. I'm happen to say Warren starting to move up. I want to see Sanders trailing by a lot.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#583 LFC

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Posted 25 June 2019 - 12:48 PM

Here's a 538 piece on how Roy Moore could actually win the Senate race. The setup:

Quote

On Thursday, the former chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court announced his bid — and his new campaign can’t be entirely written off. Yes, Moore is defying the wishes of many Republicans, including President Trump, who said in a tweet last month that “Roy Moore cannot win.” But Moore still has a passionate base of support, particularly among conservative evangelical Christians. So the main question for his candidacy moving forward will be whether he can attract voters beyond his base.


I could have written it much more succinctly. "F***ing Alabama. The end."
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#584 Rue Bella

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Posted 25 June 2019 - 12:54 PM

Quote

But Moore still has a passionate base of support, particularly among conservative evangelical Christians.

Surprise! I loath these people.
What is wrong with these people? ~ PG

No longer politically correct

#585 LFC

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Posted 25 June 2019 - 01:08 PM

538 has tracked just two meaningful shifts in the polls. Yes they make all the caveats about it being early but the shifts are big enough that they're at least worth looking at.

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Two big, obvious things have happened. One is that Elizabeth Warren has gained at Bernie Sanders’s expense. Contrary to the claims made by the Sanders campaign, it’s not just “manufactured media narratives” that have Warren surging or Sanders slumping. Instead, that’s what you get if you make any effort to look at an average or cross-section of polls instead of cherry-picking, although the shifts have been fairly gradual.

The other trend is that Beto O’Rourke and Pete Buttigieg have swapped places. At the end of March, O’Rourke was at 9.3 percent and Buttigieg was at 2.6 percent; now, it’s Buttigieg at 7.7 percent and O’Rourke at 3.6 percent.


I can't embed the whole chart because it's not an image but here are the poll averages for some of the major candidates going from March 31 until June 19. I also added the shift difference amount.

..........3/31 6/19 Diff
..........---- ---- ----
Biden: 29.1 31.1 +2.0
Sanders: 21.0 15.7 -5.3
Warren: 5.7 12.1 +6.4
Harris: 8.7 7.1 -1.6
O'Rourke: 9.3 3.6 -5.7
Buttigieg: 2.6 7.7 +5.1
Booker: 3.3 2.1 -1.2

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#586 LFC

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Posted 25 June 2019 - 01:15 PM

538 explains the Democratic tie-breakers for limiting the number of candidates at the debates. There could potentially be a tie that they aren't prepared for. I blame much of this crap on Sanders and others who took a greater chance of access to the debates to its illogical conclusion. It's absolutely ridiculous to try to ensure that anybody polling over just 1% is included.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#587 Probabilistic

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Posted 27 June 2019 - 11:09 AM

I had to abandon watching the first debate after an hour and twenty. Numbingly boring.

Winner:losers :: 0:10.

A: "We will bring about massive changes!"

Q: "How?"

A: "By bringing about massive changes. By making it free-for-all. What don't you get?"

Q: "How will you deal with the disruptions brought about by massive changes?"

A: "By wishing those away."

Q: "How will you energize the (white) working class voters?"

A: "We need to get them back on our side. By randomly speaking in Spanish...Using strange words like Latinx... and by talking louder and louder, thusly!!"

I'm mostly kidding but this will not do.

#588 Rue Bella

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Posted 27 June 2019 - 11:17 AM

Wake me in 12/20 when it's all over. Perhaps in more ways than one.
What is wrong with these people? ~ PG

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#589 golden_valley

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Posted 27 June 2019 - 11:24 AM

View PostProbabilistic, on 27 June 2019 - 11:09 AM, said:

I had to abandon watching the first debate after an hour and twenty. Numbingly boring.

Winner:losers :: 0:10.

A: "We will bring about massive changes!"

Q: "How?"

A: "By bringing about massive changes. By making it free-for-all. What don't you get?"

Q: "How will you deal with the disruptions brought about by massive changes?"

A: "By wishing those away."

Q: "How will you energize the (white) working class voters?"

A: "We need to get them back on our side. By randomly speaking in Spanish...Using strange words like Latinx... and by talking louder and louder, thusly!!"

I'm mostly kidding but this will not do.

I hated the run up to the event and the follow up too. Was in a meeting and didn't see the event. I swear I heard one tv talker say something about their "pre-game show" and others after the event discussing whether a "knock out" was delivered.

#590 Probabilistic

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Posted 27 June 2019 - 11:38 AM

View PostRue Bella, on 27 June 2019 - 11:17 AM, said:

Wake me in 12/20 when it's all over. Perhaps in more ways than one.

Chances are you'll have to reset your alarm - postpone by another 4 years.

#591 Traveler

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Posted 27 June 2019 - 12:20 PM

I watched about 5 minutes. Couldn't handle the crew of nothingburgers. Missed Booty and Warren's apprearances, so hopefully they stood out.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#592 JackD

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Posted 27 June 2019 - 12:56 PM

Mayor Pete (Booty?) is on tonight.

#593 LFC

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Posted 27 June 2019 - 01:52 PM

TPM has their biggest takeaways from the Democratic debate. All I can say is "YAWN!"

Oh, yeah. I despise Bernie Sanders more than ever. "Some people are saying?" Is he auditioning to be Faux News's pet liberal?

Quote

Sounding a Trumpian note, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) told MSNBC’s Kasie Hunt Wednesday that “some people are saying” he would have won the Democratic nomination in 2016 if the system wasn’t “rigged.”

“Some people say that if maybe that system was not rigged against me I would have won the nomination and defeated Donald Trump,” he said. “That’s what some people say.”

He got irritated as she continued to push the question of whether he’ll drop out if he’s not the nominee, demanding to know if she’d asked the question of other nominees.


All I can say is buck Fernie. Buck, buck, buck Fernie.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#594 JackD

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Posted 27 June 2019 - 04:05 PM

Some people say that Bernie is losing to Elizabeth Warren because what she says actually makes sense.

#595 LFC

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Posted 27 June 2019 - 04:09 PM

View PostJackD, on 27 June 2019 - 04:05 PM, said:

Some people say that Bernie is losing to Elizabeth Warren because what she says actually makes sense.

He still has a permanent grievance that the party he refuses to affiliate with (except during presidential election time) isn't bending over backwards to help him become their candidate. And now he's repeating debunked bullshit about his loss to Clinton with weasel words. What a f***ing tool.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#596 Probabilistic

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Posted 27 June 2019 - 04:43 PM

Check out the Bernie videos played on Trevor Noah's Daily Show. These are hilarious. Bernie's a crank, has been all his life. Just I had noted in the '16 cycle, he's all shout and spittle and no solutions. He's satisfied just mouthing off but never actually executing - never caring to build coalitions to move towards his goals. He doesn't accept over long periods of time profound change can be wrought incrementally. Making people's lives somewhat easier every few years and building on that is better than waiting 40 years for his exact solution.

#597 AnBr

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Posted 27 June 2019 - 06:29 PM

From the last election, but a telling insight of trying to work with Slanders.

The trouble with Bernie

Quote

Here's my problem with Bernie Sanders. With few exceptions, I agree with his positions on issues. But I don't like him or his political temperament. He'd be an awful president.

I followed him carefully when I was editor of the Burlington Free Press in Vermont. Sanders was the state's sole congressman, lived in Burlington, and would periodically visit with the newspaper's editors and publisher.

Considering that the Free Press' editorial positions were very liberal, reflecting the nature of a very liberal Vermont community, one might think that meetings with Sanders were cordial, even celebratory.

They weren't. Sanders was always full of himself: pious, self-righteous and utterly humorless. Burdened by the cross of his socialist crusade, he was a scold whose counter-culture moralizing appealed to the state's liberal sensibilities as well as its conservatives, who embraced his gun ownership stance, his defense of individual rights, an antipathy toward big corporations and, generally speaking, his stick-it-to-them approach to politics.

My most memorable encounter with Sanders was during an editorial board session during a period when the Vermont Progressive Party was reconstituting itself to challenge for more seats on the Burlington City Council.

Sanders had been mayor of Burlington from 1981 until 1989, institutionalizing progressive government in the city and other Vermont enclaves. Although he has been in Washington since his election to the House of Representatives in 1991, he remained the titular head of the movement, yet refused to endorse a progressive slate seeking City Council seats or the new leadership orchestrating the campaigns.

After discussing his favorite issues — corporations, government reform, health care and the like, I asked about his unwillingness to endorse his fellow progressives. He said it wasn't his role. I suggested voters might expect him to weigh in. He disagreed, clearly annoyed at the persistent questioning. Finally I suggested that he had a larger moral responsibility to the progressive movement.

At which point he jumped out of his seat, told me to go f*** myself and stormed out of the edit board meeting. OK, maybe my persistence bordered on hectoring. But I felt he ought to provide an honest answer. My suspicion was that he resented others for assuming his mantle of progressive leadership and wouldn't acknowledge them.

Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937

#598 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 28 June 2019 - 09:07 AM

Only peripherally related to 2020 (she is running for reelection, after all) I got something new in the mail this morning. For the first time in almost 50 years as a registered voter, I got a large-sized "postcard" from my Representative, Xochitl Torres Small. Well, maybe others as generic "vote for me" but this one ...
  • Starts by describing her job as serving us. In an earlier era that might have been routine boilerplate but I haven't heard it lately.
  • Lists her offices: Wahington, Las Cruces, Roswell, Belen, and Carlsbad [1]. On the back is a map with them marked. BIG district.
  • A short list (8) of services offered, including service academy nominations (first time I've ever seen them even mentioned.)
I suppose this might be SOP in some places, but please recall that the previous rep for NM2 had one office in Las Cruces where the staff locked out the public and Steve Pierce literally snuck out the back to hide from his constituents. My previous "representative" in Phoenix held "town halls" that were invitation-only (read: fundraisers) which were generally not even publicly scheduled.

So -- is this a one-off or is there something going on?

[1] Carlsbad is appointment only.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
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These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
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#599 golden_valley

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Posted 28 June 2019 - 09:39 AM

View PostD. C. Sessions, on 28 June 2019 - 09:07 AM, said:

Only peripherally related to 2020 (she is running for reelection, after all) I got something new in the mail this morning. For the first time in almost 50 years as a registered voter, I got a large-sized "postcard" from my Representative, Xochitl Torres Small. Well, maybe others as generic "vote for me" but this one ...
  • Starts by describing her job as serving us. In an earlier era that might have been routine boilerplate but I haven't heard it lately.
  • Lists her offices: Wahington, Las Cruces, Roswell, Belen, and Carlsbad [1]. On the back is a map with them marked. BIG district.
  • A short list (8) of services offered, including service academy nominations (first time I've ever seen them even mentioned.)
I suppose this might be SOP in some places, but please recall that the previous rep for NM2 had one office in Las Cruces where the staff locked out the public and Steve Pierce literally snuck out the back to hide from his constituents. My previous "representative" in Phoenix held "town halls" that were invitation-only (read: fundraisers) which were generally not even publicly scheduled.

So -- is this a one-off or is there something going on?

[1] Carlsbad is appointment only.

My Congresscritters, the former one a Republican and his successor, a Democrat did and do such things fairly frequently. Along with personal robo calls and emails inviting us to their open office hours. Maybe it's just a California thing to do this.

#600 LFC

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Posted 28 June 2019 - 09:50 AM

[sigh] This author gushes over Kamala Harris but, being a fiscal conservative, I was hit square between the eyes by this sentence.

Quote

It was plain from her first answer that Harris was playing to win, using a question about whether ambitious and expensive Democratic proposals should be paid for by hitting President Donald Trump’s signature tax-cut legislation.


Uuuuuh, Ms. Harris, do you even realize that we had a massive structural deficit BEFORE the Trump/Ryan tax cuts? That we have multiple problems that will increase the difficulty of this like Social Security and Medicare? That Republican spending is out of control and has been in lasting ways every time they've controlled the federal government? AFAIC Harris just went on record as saying there wasn't a problem before the Trump/Ryan tax cuts. That makes her piss poor Democratic candidate in my eyes. She's embracing Sanders Math™ which deals with big numbers and never adds up.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer





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