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2020 Presidential & Congressional Elections


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#1461 Beelzebuddy

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Posted 12 February 2020 - 04:50 PM

View Postgolden_valley, on 12 February 2020 - 04:44 PM, said:

This +1000. The media overstates the significance of IA and NH anyway and are busy looking for a narrative. Droning on about Warren's plans got too boring for media or parsing out actual policy proposals is too much work. I think Buttigieg sort of got the Trump treatment with lots of free media via interviews (who is this guy coming out of nowhere). So surprise! Buttigieg does well.

But he's a ratings goldmine!

Just like that other guy, that last time...
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#1462 LFC

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Posted 12 February 2020 - 05:11 PM

View PostBeelzebuddy, on 12 February 2020 - 04:50 PM, said:

But he's a ratings goldmine!

Just like that other guy, that last time...

Oh, man! That's just...

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#1463 AnBr

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Posted 12 February 2020 - 06:45 PM

View PostAnBr, on 12 February 2020 - 03:06 PM, said:

I think that some of the hand wringing over Sanders doing well at this point is a bit of a much-a-do-about-nothing. He did well in the caucus states and New England, but faltered elsewhere. The fact that he did not do as well in Iowa and New Hampshire would seem to bear it out. Not that he could not do it, just I do not think it all that likely as some seem to fear.

That said, this article is a look at how he would be ripped apart by tRump if he sould get the nom. https://thebulwark.c...bernie-sanders/

I would be more concerned that we have a repeat of last time with Bernie deadender trolls throwing monkey wrenches in the works to the advantage of tRump in fits of outrage.
“Trump’s a stupid man’s idea of a smart person, a poor man’s idea of a rich person & a weak man’s idea of a strong man.”

— Fran Lebowitz


“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937

#1464 AnBr

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Posted 12 February 2020 - 06:50 PM

https://thehill.com/...vote-for-bernie
“Trump’s a stupid man’s idea of a smart person, a poor man’s idea of a rich person & a weak man’s idea of a strong man.”

— Fran Lebowitz


“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937

#1465 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 12 February 2020 - 08:04 PM

View Postgolden_valley, on 12 February 2020 - 04:44 PM, said:

The media overstates the significance of IA and NH anyway and are busy looking for a narrative.

Thus, there is the "endorsement primary," the "Billionaire primary," and now we're in the "media primary." Remember "who would you rather have a beer with?" in 2000? The endless empty rumors about the Clinton Foundation? E-MAILS!!!! Yeah, those. And then of course there was 2016's endless mountains of free media exposure for Trump, calling in to every news and talk show -- for free.

Now it's the scramble to define What This Election Is All About.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#1466 JackD

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Posted 12 February 2020 - 10:25 PM

As a practical matter, nothing of significance happens until Super Tuesday.

#1467 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 13 February 2020 - 07:28 AM

As a historical matter, a lot of supporting decisions (and dropouts) happen before Super Tuesday. That, and the punditocracy generally settles on the official narrative for the year.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#1468 HockeyDon

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Posted 13 February 2020 - 09:15 AM

View Postgolden_valley, on 12 February 2020 - 04:44 PM, said:

Droning on about Warren's plans got too boring for media or parsing out actual policy proposals is too much work.

The irony of the press whining that the grand plans these candidates want to implement aren't fleshed out, then once the plan is fleshed out they get to nit-picking followed quickly by the realization that distilling anything remotely complex is simply beyond their abilities, so they drop it and move to the next shiny object.
Well, fuck.

How can I be expected to distinguish BS from reality when so much of my reality is utter BS?!

"There seems to be a lot of people dying of ignorance while living in the information age." my sister-in-law.

#1469 AnBr

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Posted 13 February 2020 - 09:30 AM

Not to mention that there is little use for a lot of detail given the the outcome would be more of Congress's design than that of the PotUS.
“Trump’s a stupid man’s idea of a smart person, a poor man’s idea of a rich person & a weak man’s idea of a strong man.”

— Fran Lebowitz


“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937

#1470 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 13 February 2020 - 09:47 AM

View PostAnBr, on 13 February 2020 - 09:30 AM, said:

Not to mention that there is little use for a lot of detail given the the outcome would be more of Congress's design than that of the PotUS.

Warren would have been so much better off to remind those asking that while the President can set policy objectives, the details are up to Congress. Ask them.

Once explained as "The President proposes, Congress disposes." A great lead-in to reminding the audience that Trump's attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act failed in Congress by one vote in the Senate when Republicans controlled both Houses.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#1471 Probabilistic

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Posted 13 February 2020 - 11:01 AM

View PostHockeyDon, on 13 February 2020 - 09:15 AM, said:

The irony of the press whining that the grand plans these candidates want to implement aren't fleshed out, then once the plan is fleshed out they get to nit-picking followed quickly by the realization that distilling anything remotely complex is simply beyond their abilities, so they drop it and move to the next shiny object.

The fundamental problem with Warren's campaign was that she allowed the realization of the untenability of Medicare-For-All to embarrass her. First she tried to stonewall. Her embarrassment breached through it. She then came up with a plan that could be easily shown to be inconsistent. When that didn't work she played the woman card. Now she's pretending to be the unity candidate when no one is listening. Ask Cory Booker how well that strategy worked. She looks disingenuous.

Bernie has the distinct Trumpian advantage of not letting facts get in the way. He's unencumbered by emabarrassment. The best way to sell unrealistic ideas is never use the tools of reality to justify them.

Elizabeth Warren's strategic mistake was expecting Bernie's collapse, while failing to anticipate Biden's. Biden's history and performance during summer and fall last year should have been clues. Had she kept her corruption critique and added middle of the road policies, she would have succeeded.

#1472 JackD

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Posted 13 February 2020 - 11:04 AM

The Affordable Care Act itself was a product of Congress not the Presidency. (see: Lieberman, Joe, Baucus, Max, and others.)

#1473 golden_valley

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Posted 13 February 2020 - 02:42 PM

View PostProbabilistic, on 13 February 2020 - 11:01 AM, said:

The fundamental problem with Warren's campaign was that she allowed the realization of the untenability of Medicare-For-All to embarrass her. First she tried to stonewall. Her embarrassment breached through it. She then came up with a plan that could be easily shown to be inconsistent. When that didn't work she played the woman card. Now she's pretending to be the unity candidate when no one is listening. Ask Cory Booker how well that strategy worked. She looks disingenuous.

Bernie has the distinct Trumpian advantage of not letting facts get in the way. He's unencumbered by emabarrassment. The best way to sell unrealistic ideas is never use the tools of reality to justify them.

Elizabeth Warren's strategic mistake was expecting Bernie's collapse, while failing to anticipate Biden's. Biden's history and performance during summer and fall last year should have been clues. Had she kept her corruption critique and added middle of the road policies, she would have succeeded.

Warren has poor political instincts...she let Trump bait her into the DNA test; she let Bernie bait her into Medicare for All (Harris fell for this too). She seems blind to some of the political game playing that goes on in elections and in politics in general. She so believes that her plans will solve everything. That's okay when you're a Senator introducing legislation, but it's not healthy in a presidential candidate (or a president).

#1474 JackD

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Posted 13 February 2020 - 04:26 PM

I think Warren should get some credit for backpeddling from Medicare for all when its unpopularity made it clear that compromise for a Medicare/public option was not only more politically acceptable but also possibly achievable. If the "progressives" and the "centrists" arrive at the convention at a stalemate, she could be an acceptable compromise. Not to say she hasn't made a lot of political mistakes but she may benefit from the circumstances of the time. The concern is that the Bernie/progressives will take their ball and go home if they don't get the nomination. Warren, at least, has some cred with them. The other competitors don't.

#1475 AnBr

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Posted 14 February 2020 - 02:42 PM

From the ultra right Washington Examiner: Bernie Sanders isn't a ‘democratic socialist’ — he's an all-out Marxist
Perhaps the right-wingers that want to dump tRump are prematurely pulling the "Comrade Sanders" charge before the primaries get much further along to undermine his chances.
“Trump’s a stupid man’s idea of a smart person, a poor man’s idea of a rich person & a weak man’s idea of a strong man.”

— Fran Lebowitz


“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937

#1476 Probabilistic

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Posted 14 February 2020 - 04:19 PM

View PostJackD, on 13 February 2020 - 04:26 PM, said:

I think Warren should get some credit for backpeddling from Medicare for all when its unpopularity made it clear that compromise for a Medicare/public option was not only more politically acceptable but also possibly achievable.

Credit for backpedaling on a cockamamie scheme? How about ten times that amount of discredit for proposing it in the first place? So net-net...

#1477 JackD

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Posted 14 February 2020 - 04:44 PM

Not really net-net. Some compromise candidate is going to have to be found or it's more Trump in all likelihood.

#1478 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 14 February 2020 - 06:17 PM

View PostProbabilistic, on 14 February 2020 - 04:19 PM, said:

Credit for backpedaling on a cockamamie scheme? How about ten times that amount of discredit for proposing it in the first place? So net-net...

Nothing wrong with it -- it's actually the best long-term solution, and well-proven in other countries.

Feasible today? It is to laugh.

Public option? We'd have had it already except for the futile attempt to bring Republicans and Blue Dogs on board. (We also would have had it sooner and without flaws from the desperate last-minute move to go with the buggy Senate draft.)
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#1479 Traveler

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Posted 15 February 2020 - 08:14 AM

A pretty interesting take on Sanders' ceiling. Which ain't all that high. And then here comes Mike. I am open to him frankly. Not at all happy with Warren having lurched too far left, and now climbing down off the MCA wall. Too little too late. Biden? Toast. Pete? a bridge too far IMO. Amy, Not enough firepower. So Mike by default? Interested to hear from our commentariat what folks think of Mike. Especially vis a vis taking on the dump.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#1480 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 15 February 2020 - 09:26 AM

Bloomberg is about as good as we can expect from a Republican. Like Biden, he can probably get Federalist Society judges confirmed by the Senate and stands a pretty fair chance of getting tax cuts through Congress.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO





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