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#421 Traveler

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Posted 06 June 2019 - 07:44 AM

A couple of articles about how much the Chinese need US dollars, and how hard it is getting to obtain them. Interesting reading. Kind of blows off that "sell the treasuries" option many folks thought was actually viable.
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#422 J-CA

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Posted 06 June 2019 - 11:13 PM

 Traveler, on 06 June 2019 - 07:44 AM, said:

A couple of articles about how much the Chinese need US dollars, and how hard it is getting to obtain them. Interesting reading. Kind of blows off that "sell the treasuries" option many folks thought was actually viable.
1. These are in part pre-trade-war issues working their way through the Chinese economy, reframing them in terms of current politics is probably wrong.
2. This is the opposite of blowing off the "sell the treasuries" option, if the China actually needs USD because they can't borrow in USD then selling treasuries is the way to acquire USD regardless of the credit risks of the individual borrowers in China.
3. It is very important to remember that the Chinese economy is in the midst of a reversion to true fascism, currency controls are a big part of that. Every moderately rich Chinese person with significant overseas assets to flee to is another citizen that is a threat to the authority of the central government.
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#423 Traveler

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Posted 07 June 2019 - 07:10 AM

I meant "sell the treasuries option" as being some sort of cudgel that China could wield to retaliate, not that it would be bad. They already sold >1t to support their economy two years ago without the slightest hiccup. Although at the last auction, the buyer ratio was the lowest ever, at slightly over 2:1.

And the yuan is back at 7. All those rich Chinese are not very happy.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
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#424 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 07 June 2019 - 07:49 AM

One sure indicator that someone really hasn't a clue is when they proclaim that China could crash our economy by "calling in" the debt they hold.
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#425 LFC

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Posted 07 June 2019 - 12:26 PM

To those of you with more local knowledge do you have any idea how big a deal this is to the average Chinese when you look across the entire range of products in their food supply?

Quote

An outbreak of African swine fever, a highly contagious disease that’s been called “pig Ebola,” is ravaging Asia’s pig industry with no signs of letting up.

The current outbreak of the virus, which kills almost all animals it infects, began in China in August. Since then, some 22 percent of the country’s pig herd has been lost to the disease and to culling, Christine McCracken, an animal protein expert at Rabobank, told Vox.

African swine fever is also now spreading in several countries neighboring China, including Mongolia, Russia, Cambodia, and Vietnam. The map below shows current outbreaks in Asia, as reported to the World Organization for Animal Health, or OIE.

The disease, which was discovered a century ago in Kenya, is particularly deadly to pigs because it spreads easily and there is no treatment or vaccine. The only way for pig producers to prevent it is to kill all animals that have been infected or potentially exposed, or to put strict biosecurity measures in place.

Officials in China have tried in vain to get the outbreak under control to protect the country’s roughly 440 million pigs, which make up more than half of all pigs on earth. So far, it says it has culled 1.2 million pigs, putting thousands of small producers out of business. McCracken and others say that is a significant underestimate.

By the end of the year, she estimates China may lose as many as 200 million pigs. That’s an astonishingly high number, considering that a single pig can produce 200 pounds of food. It’s also remarkable when you compare it to the 250 million poultry in 63 countries that were culled following the outbreak of avian flu in China in 1996.

This African swine fever outbreak, in other words, is much worse than that avian flu outbreak in terms of livestock losses. “It’s historic; there’s never been anything like this in the history of modern animal production,” said McCracken. “And it’s a frightening situation only in that there is no current control.”

Though China is the epicenter and the worst-affected country, Vietnam has also been forced to cull 2 million of its 30 million pigs, according to Reuters. And tourists have brought the disease into several countries in Europe, including Poland and Romania, where it’s spreading among wild boar.

“This is the biggest animal disease outbreak we’ve ever had on the planet,” Dirk Pfeiffer, a veterinary epidemiologist at City University of Hong Kong and expert on African swine fever, told the Guardian. “It makes the foot and mouth disease and BSE [mad cow disease] outbreaks pale in comparison to the damage that is being done.”

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#426 George Rowell

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Posted 07 June 2019 - 09:51 PM

Shanghai. I ate pork yesterday and asked two people about swine fever and they had not heard about it. So, not much news coverage maybe. The impact so far seems minimal and the price is about $4US a lb. No a panic yet at least.

Just found out the low end price for pork is 12 yuan/jin or about $1.6/lb.
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#427 George Rowell

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Posted 07 June 2019 - 09:56 PM

View PostTraveler, on 06 June 2019 - 07:44 AM, said:

A couple of articles about how much the Chinese need US dollars, and how hard it is getting to obtain them. Interesting reading. Kind of blows off that "sell the treasuries" option many folks thought was actually viable.
There is talk about trading in local currencies backed by gold. Easier said than done.
A doctor knows a little about a lot. A specialist knows a lot about a little. In time the doctor knows less and less about more and more and the specialist knows more and more about less and less until ultimately the doctor knows nothing about everything and the specialist knows everything about nothing.

#428 J-CA

    Probably in one of my drunken stupors..

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Posted 08 June 2019 - 03:44 PM

View PostLFC, on 07 June 2019 - 12:26 PM, said:

To those of you with more local knowledge do you have any idea how big a deal this is to the average Chinese when you look across the entire range of products in their food supply?
Not local to me but I know from talking to some pork producers that did a tour in China that their sanitary controls at their barns are a disaster, they run their barns like Canadians did in the 1960's, and I imagine the tours are conducted to show off the best ones. Their newer megabarns will come out of this whole experience much stronger though, they will fix their issues and many more small farmers will have been driven out of the industry.

If you have noticed that trade retaliation from China towards Canada has been refusing the buy Canadian canola and now messing with pork import licenses. Conveniently their demand for Canola meal is way down due to the culls and their pork production is, I presume, way up in the short term from premature slaughters for the same reason. When they finally do get this under control rebuilding the stocks will drive pork prices way up, but I imagine that they will suddenly find little issue with imported products at that point.
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