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#361 George Rowell

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Posted 17 March 2019 - 05:23 PM

View PostTraveler, on 14 March 2019 - 03:40 PM, said:

I tend to think that the most recent stuff is better constructed. But stuff constructed in 2005-2010 looked like something out of Bladerunner by 2017. Stuff constructed in 2012 had stucco cracking and iron stains below the windows by 2014. Remember that article about Chabuduo?
I have not seen this sort of bad construction in Shanghai. But it is the normal investment route to buy a second or third investment house, often in places where there are no shops or facilities because - there are no people. At any one time the may be a single family staying in a total deserted and isolated housing project. The guard is always asleep.
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#362 baw1064

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Posted 17 March 2019 - 05:30 PM

View PostGeorge Rowell, on 17 March 2019 - 12:07 PM, said:

Don't talk about precipitative sea level rise please. Our house is 30 meters from the river and less than 1 meter above the high water level!!! I get worried when it rains hard. I want to look at the pelicans, not swim with them. That would completely ruin my day. I am hoping climate change will be slow enough to see me out and yet somehow also solve the problem of my will.

You'll be able to swim with the black swans!
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#363 George Rowell

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Posted 17 March 2019 - 05:35 PM

View Postindy, on 14 March 2019 - 01:10 PM, said:

That's crazy. What kind of recourse do people have when their house falls apart after a couple of years? The other question is, is this the rule or the exception? If it's the rule, you'd think people would be livid.
These are usually investment houses and left empty. Nobody buys these or sells them and there are tens of thousands. In Beijig there are 4 million empty new flats and Shanghai has 3 million. The company that built the ones in the film probably no longer exists. In Shanghai I have never seen one like that, or even close, nor Suzhou, maybe because the town government is more powerful.
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#364 George Rowell

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Posted 17 March 2019 - 05:47 PM

View Postbaw1064, on 17 March 2019 - 05:30 PM, said:

You'll be able to swim with the black swans!
I used to go canoeing a lot but now catch fish and take an interest in the wildfowl population. The pelicans are the bossy kings but there are about 50 black swans and 20 mostly white swans. Quite a few canards and hens too not to mention parrots in the trees dotting the embankment. Just hope the water does not come in my front door any time soon. Until then I will enjoy the sunrises and sunsets, both on the river. It is scary but in 50 years the house may not be feasible.

Flamingoes tend to gather about two Klicks away but right here does not suit them, and a few Ibis, with those curved beaks, that take an interest in peoples lawns as well as any marsh. Few have any real fear of humans.
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#365 George Rowell

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Posted 18 March 2019 - 12:02 AM

You are Stealing our Women!!!

https://www.youtube....h?v=uTUaFB77uZQ
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#366 George Rowell

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Posted 18 March 2019 - 12:19 AM

The other day I met my next door neighbor who was about to take his dogs for a walk.
"Can you chop down some of your trees", he said. "There is a lot of debris and it blows into my gutters. Not only that" he said and lowered his voice and leaned over, "the other day I saw a RAT!"
"Keep your voice down" I hushed, "Wen may hear you talking about huge rats and get excited."
He raised his eyebrows, "Is she scared of rats" he asked.
"No", I replied, "Wen is Chinese, they eat rats."
"Noooo! Reeeally!"
"Yes, just don't tell her, OK" :)
"OK"

My neighbor has not mentioned rats again. but then I did get the tree fellas :) in
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#367 George Rowell

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Posted 18 March 2019 - 12:26 AM

Dystopian state. Facial recognition and surveillance in China

https://www.youtube....h?v=FqbT7pFWS_I



I might add that the Chinese themselves do not seem to mind at all. It catches criminals.
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#368 George Rowell

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Posted 18 March 2019 - 12:56 AM

Don't mention the ABCC11 gene!

On my last stay in China I had an allergic reaction, possibly from what I ate, maybe from the metformin, so I went to the skin hospital. Now the interesting thing is that a higher than usual percentage of the patients were women and quite a few had mild BO. That was a strange distribution for China.
Now you may wonder where this is going but the Japanese and Koreans have a no-smell ABCC11 gene variant and only 5% percent of Chinese have the smelly variant. What does that mean? Well, simply put no body odor! Yep, and for a smelly European that makes me real jealous. I looked at those ladies again and saw no visible blemishes.
I may be completely on the wrong track but it occurred to me that they were here because they thought there was something wrong with them. I can imagine their disappointment when they found out. If that was the case then it must have hit hard. But there you are. In the heat after a busy day they crowd the metros and - no problem. Unless you are a smelly 'Laowai' like myself - or one of the dreaded 5%.

If you have dry earwax you may be one of the lucky ones too.
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#369 LFC

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 09:31 AM

The FBI is clamping down on certain Chinese "academics" who are suspected of being spies. If this is under the direction of the Trump administration then I'll give him credit for this one.

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The FBI is reportedly barring some Chinese academics from entering the U.S. over their suspected connections to Chinese intelligence, The New York Times reported.

At least 30 professors from China who focus their work on social sciences and experts on government policy have had their U.S. visas reviewed or canceled in the past year. The FBI reportedly believes that China is using visiting academics to spy on U.S. citizens.

The Trump administration has focused substantial efforts to crack down on intellectual property theft by China.

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#370 andydp

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 12:30 PM

View PostLFC, on 15 April 2019 - 09:31 AM, said:

The FBI is clamping down on certain Chinese "academics" who are suspected of being spies. If this is under the direction of the Trump administration then I'll give him credit for this one.

We’ve a couple of Chinese nationals arrested here. We have the GE research lab. Rensselaer Poly institute. Albany College of Nanoscience. Plenty of “fertile ground”.
Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.

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If you've got public schools paid for by taxpayers, you're in a socialist nation. If you have public roads paid for by taxpayers, socialist nation. If you've got public defense (police, fire, military, coast guard) paid for by tax dollars, socialist nation. If you're in a nation that has nationalized or localized delivery of services that are not paid for by users alone, you're in a socialist nation- the only question is how socialist. As I see it, we have the military pay to protecting the shipping lanes for our fuel needs which makes up very socialist. In a capitalist nation, the people supplying the oil would pay for their own defense force.


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#371 Bact PhD

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 03:32 PM

View Postandydp, on 15 April 2019 - 12:30 PM, said:



We’ve a couple of Chinese nationals arrested here. We have the GE research lab. Rensselaer Poly institute. Albany College of Nanoscience. Plenty of “fertile ground”.
The same could be said of any burg that contains a major university (or several smaller institutions).
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#372 George Rowell

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Posted 15 April 2019 - 07:51 PM

By law Chinese citizens anywhere in the World can be forced to spy even if they do not spy voluntarily. https://thediplomat....telligence-law/

"In 2017 the regime passed the National Intelligence Law, which requires all Chinese citizens and entities to supply intelligence information if requested.
Article 7 states that Chinese “organizations and citizens shall, in accordance with the law, support, cooperate with, and collaborate in national intelligence work.” It adds that the state will “protect” individuals and organizations that assist in such intelligence efforts.
Article 14 states: “The state intelligence department has the right to ask any (Chinese) government, organization, and citizen to supply the necessary support, assistance, and cooperation.”
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#373 Traveler

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Posted 16 April 2019 - 10:28 AM

What a surprise. After all, we do the same ourselves. Just voluntarily....
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#374 Traveler

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Posted 08 May 2019 - 02:13 PM

Well, while we enjoyed a little hiatus from the hijinks in the China negotiations, it looks like the proverbial shit is about to hit the fan. First a little background.

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The endgame in the trade war between China and the United States seems near. President Trump, betting with real currency — American strength — apparently has the upper hand, and the concessions President Xi Jinping is likely to make won’t be mere tokens. When — if? — an agreement is finally announced, Mr. Trump will surely fire off bragging tweets, partly to shore up his credentials for a second term, amid personal and policy troubles. For Mr. Xi, almost any deal could mean a very serious loss of face.
[...]
But those were easy stunts, performed in a country with no audible opposition and that bans “reckless” talk about the government. The trade war, on the other hand, is the first real occasion to assess Mr. Xi’s leadership capabilities. And his performance might not look so good, even if one discounts the setbacks related to the trade war.
First and foremost, Mr. Xi has utterly failed to manage the United States–Chinese relationship. In contrast, every Chinese leader since the founding of the communist state in 1949 had recognized the paramount importance of those ties, worked hard to improve them — and reaped huge benefits.
[...]
But Mr. Xi has been aggressively hard-line. Under him, anti-American rhetoric has spread in official media. The Chinese government has been explicit about wanting to challenge the United States’s military presence in Asia. It has made aggressive moves toward Taiwan and in the South China Sea. It has sent Chinese battleships through American waters off the coast of Alaska. (It claimed to only be exercising the internationally recognized right of “innocent passage,” but the move clearly was a show of force.)

State authorities in Beijing try to co-opt members of China’s vast diaspora, hoping to develop a network that will facilitate political infiltration into other countries and high-tech transfers out of them. To this end, they resort to both overt schemes, like the Thousand Talents Plan, an official headhunting program, and covert tactics overseen by the C.C.P.’s influence machine, the United Front.

These efforts have set off alarms among some Americans. In 2017 and 2018, two groups of blue-ribbon scholars and ex-officials from previous United States administrations advocated a fundamental change in America’s view of China. Their members were moderates and mostly well-disposed toward China. Yet some of their recommendations dovetailed with the views of the Trump administration hawks who consider China to be America’s number-one enemy and security threat. Mr. Xi, apparently oblivious to this sea change, was caught unprepared when Mr. Trump hit China with a tariff war.

Then he instructed his team to basically throw out the trade agreement they were about to sign.

Quote

The diplomatic cable from Beijing arrived in Washington late on Friday night, with systematic edits to a nearly 150-page draft trade agreement that would blow up months of negotiations between the world’s two largest economies, according to three U.S. government sources and three private sector sources briefed on the talks.Th document was riddled with reversals by China that undermined core U.S. demands, the sources told Reuters.

In each of the seven chapters of the draft trade deal, China had deleted its commitments to change laws to resolve core complaints that caused the United States to launch a trade war: Theft of U.S. intellectual property and trade secrets; forced technology transfers; competition policy; access to financial services; and currency manipulation.
So the Chinese welshed on a deal that they would have welshed on anyway. When that is "winning", I think "losing" by starting a trade war is actually warranted. As I said in the stupid trade thread, time to sell short. And buckle up. Gonna be a tough decade ahead.

The big question is how much of the rest of the planet is going to be on board. I think a lot more than Xi expects. And trump will tariff the piss out of anyone selling products in the US with any Chinese parts. Which will keep a lot of exporters honest.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
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#375 LFC

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Posted 08 May 2019 - 02:52 PM

From the trade thread...

View PostTraveler, on 08 May 2019 - 02:27 PM, said:

I would like to move this discussion over to the China thread. These are big time developments. I had no idea Xi was that stupid.

Stupid or is he just going to immediately play the victim (i.e. the entire nation is the victim) to rile up HIS base and blame Trump for everything that goes wrong economically for the next few years? I don't understand the domestic political angle within China at all so don't know what looks dumb from here but plays well in Peoria Peking.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

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#376 Traveler

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Posted 08 May 2019 - 02:59 PM

Nope, Xi is setting himself and the hardliners up for a fall. China cannot keep stimulating its way out of its problems. Debt is >300% GDP already. Workforce declining, seniors accelerating. There were only two ways out. Keep it up, and delay the inevitable. Or act like a normal country with some semblance of fair play. Which would actually be much better for China in the long run. Choosing sides with the SOEs will inevitably be inefficient.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#377 pnwguy

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Posted 08 May 2019 - 05:10 PM

Too bad the seniors can't be handled like the Uyghurs, in "re-education camps". But too many centuries of Chinese culture that venerates the family elders would undermine that approach. It would be hard to scale up the Tienanmen Solution to handle the revolts that would happen across the country.
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#378 George Rowell

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Posted 09 May 2019 - 04:56 AM

View PostTraveler, on 08 May 2019 - 02:13 PM, said:


The big question is how much of the rest of the planet is going to be on board. I think a lot more than Xi expects. And trump will tariff the piss out of anyone selling products in the US with any Chinese parts. Which will keep a lot of exporters honest.
The Chinese like to single out small countries who try to make a stand. If Trump goes forward with his Tariffs the chances are they will be emboldened and do the same.
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#379 Traveler

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Posted 09 May 2019 - 08:00 AM

It will be interesting to see how the EU responds. Their talks with China about opening markets are on hold now.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#380 Traveler

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Posted 09 May 2019 - 08:09 AM

Here is more on why that old "saving face" and "century of humiliation" will prevent a trade resolution.

Quote

Trump has tried to mollify Chinese concerns about foreign bullying by taking steps to prevent the trade pact from appearing one-sided. The United States would be bound by the same intellectual property, technology-transfer and open-investment provisions as China, said the individual close to the talks.

Aaron L. Friedberg, a China expert at Princeton University who served as an adviser to former vice president Richard B. Cheney, said there are limits to history’s hold on the Chinese government.

“They use the ‘century of humiliation’ and all the bad things that foreigners have done to them as a tool that serves multiple purposes,” he said, including as a shield against legitimate foreign demands.

More recent experience may also explain negotiators’ inability thus far to strike a bargain.

For 40 years, U.S. leaders have prioritized deepening economic ties between the two countries rather than confront China over its trade practices.
The recent backsliding that irked Trump may indicate that Beijing has misread him and expects the unconventional U.S. leader to make the same choice, Friedberg said.

“They may have trouble imagining this relationship could fundamentally break down and look very different than it does now,” he added.
I dont see any way out. Time to take profits in equities. Analysts expect a good 10-15% drop if this goes through.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire





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