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#21 baw1064

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Posted 04 August 2018 - 03:46 PM

I could have put this in the climate change thread, but it now appears that China is the country that is cheating on the Montreal Protocol, and is using large amounts of CFC-11 (global warming and ozone depletion all in one!). So hypothetically, if we had a President who wanted to do something good (LOL!) getting the Chinese to abide by the agreements they've signed on to wouldn't be a bad place to start in a trade dispute. Among other things, the whole reason they're using CFC-11 is because it provides an economic advantage at the expense of the environment.

https://eia-global.o...lowing-industry
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#22 Traveler

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Posted 05 August 2018 - 09:07 AM

Is anyone here surprised?
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#23 JackD

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Posted 05 August 2018 - 09:28 AM

The President would approve just as he does of the dismantling of EPA standards of all sorts.

#24 baw1064

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Posted 05 August 2018 - 03:33 PM

 Traveler, on 05 August 2018 - 09:07 AM, said:

Is anyone here surprised?

Slightly. There has always been a lot of doubt as to what extent the CFC ban was actually being enforced in China. But it appeared that global emissions of CFC-11 were at a very low level about 10 years ago (there was still some, because if you use it as a blowing agent for insulation foams, it will gradually leak out of the foam over many years). So China (and everybody else) had more or less curtailed CFC emissions. Ramping up production again after you'd essentially stopped for several years and invested in alternative technologies I do find a little bizarre. If you just don't care about the environment, why bother to stop in the first place?
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#25 Traveler

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 09:30 AM

This is a pretty good take on how Xi shot himself in the foot.

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As officials and scholars look around the world, they see widespread skepticism of Chinese ambition, particularly in Western capitals whose governments are taking measures to limit China’s ability to buy strategic assets. If this is China’s moment, officials ask, how is it the new superpower seems so alone? “There was a broad-based consensus building that China’s behavior was predatory and needed to be stopped,” says Jude Blanchette, who analyses Chinese politics at Crumpton Group LLC, an international advisory and business development firm in Arlington, Va. “The casting off of term limits was a match on that gasoline and has acted as an accelerant for pushback in the U.S.”
[...]
EU officials say they agree with Trump on the substance of his criticisms, even if tariffs aren’t their preferred weapon.
China made a series of huge mistakes, and it will come back to bite them. Here I am pretty much behind Trump's moves, poorly aimed as they may be.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#26 Traveler

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Posted 09 August 2018 - 07:55 AM

And this talks about how the OBOR (one belt one road) initiative is running into headwinds.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#27 Beelzebuddy

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Posted 09 August 2018 - 08:09 AM

More analysis

Quote

A growing trade war with the United States is causing rifts within China’s Communist Party, with some critics saying that an overly nationalistic Chinese stance may have hardened the U.S. position, according to four sources close to the government.

Quote

A prominent and influential academic whose views have found favor in some party quarters has also come under attack for his strident views on Chinese power.

Wang, who was the architect of the “China Dream”, Xi’s vision for China to become a strong and prosperous nation, has been taken to task by the Chinese leader for crafting an excessively nationalistic image for the country, which has only provoked the United States, the sources said.

...

There is a growing feeling within the Chinese government that the outlook for China has “become grim”, according to a government policy advisor, following the deterioration in relations between China and the United States over trade.

Fear Sells!

Cui bono?

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#28 LFC

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:33 AM

It looks like China is looking for more leverage over Apple. I wonder what it is in particular that they want to steal.

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To gain advantage in the intensifying “trade war” with the United States, China threatened on Tuesday to retaliate against Apple Inc with an incredible public statement.

“China is by far the most important overseas market for the U.S.-based Apple, leaving it exposed if Chinese people make it a target of anger and nationalist sentiment,” People’s Daily stated in an article titled “Strong Sales of U.S. Brands Including Apple Give China Bargaining Chips in Trade Row.”

The article, reprinted from a sister newspaper, went on: “China doesn’t want to close its doors to Apple despite the trade conflict, but if the U.S. company wants to earn good money in China, it needs to share its development dividends with the Chinese people.”

The article in the Communist Party’s—and therefore, China’s—most authoritative publication added one more implied threat: “It is impractical and unreasonable to kick the company out of China, but if Apple wants to continue raking in enormous profits from the Chinese markets amid trade tensions, the company needs to do more to share the economic cake with local Chinese people.”

In a country filled with customers crazy for Apple products, the only way the American brand would become a target of ire is if the political leadership was determined to make it so, as Beijing has done with other foreign businesses. Chinese officials have organized protests against a host of Japanese companies and, more recently, Lotte Group, the South Korean retail and tourism conglomerate.

The Communist Party has also gone after Apple before. In March 2013, for instance, Chinese officials took a series of actions, suggesting they were seeking to undermine the brand.

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#29 Traveler

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:21 PM

Some links on how it looks for China:
1
2
3
SCMP is pretty much on the case. These are some very interesting developments.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

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Posted 11 August 2018 - 06:31 PM

So China is tolerant?

Quote


A United Nations human rights panel said on Friday that it had received many credible reports that 1 million ethnic Uighurs in China are held in what resembles a “massive internment camp that is shrouded in secrecy.”Gay McDougall, a member of the U.N. Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination, cited estimates that 2 million Uighurs and Muslim minorities were forced into “political camps for indoctrination” in the western Xinjiang autonomous region.



“We are deeply concerned at the many numerous and credible reports that we have received that in the name of combating religious extremism and maintaining social stability (China) has changed the Uighur autonomous region into something that resembles a massive internship camp that is shrouded in secrecy, a sort of ‘no rights zone’,” she told the start of a two-day regular review of China’s record, including Hong Kong and Macao.

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#31 LFC

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Posted 14 August 2018 - 01:15 PM

More on China's treatment of Uighurs even outside of the country.

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A major human rights crisis is unfolding in northwestern China, according to the United Nations, which said last week that there were credible reports that the Chinese government is holding one million or more ethnic minorities in secretive detention camps.

Yet even for those who have escaped China, surveillance and intimidation have followed. As part of a massive campaign to monitor and intimidate its ethnic minorities no matter where they are, Chinese authorities are creating a global registry of Uighurs who live outside of China, threatening to detain their relatives if they do not provide personal and identifying information to Chinese police. This campaign is now reaching even Uighurs who live in the United States.

A few months ago, Barna, who lives in a major U.S. city and requested that her real name not be revealed, received an odd message from her mother, who lives in China. Barna’s mother asked her to send her U.S. car license plate number, her phone number, her U.S. bank card number, and a photo of her ID card. Barna’s mother said that China is creating a new ID card system that includes all Chinese, even those who are abroad.

Since her mother was located in China and they were talking via WeChat, a Chinese chat app permitted by China’s internet regulator since it gives authorities access to messages and phone calls, Barna knew that their conversation was likely being monitored. So she told her mother that she did not have a car in the United States and that she only uses her Chinese bank card, though her mother knows this isn’t the case.

But Barna agreed to send the photo of her ID card. “From her unsettled voice, I can tell she has been pushed by the authorities,” said Barna. “For the sake of my mom’s safety, I said OK.”

In recent months, many other Uighurs living in the United States have received similar demands from Chinese authorities, relayed by family members back in China who were paid official visits from local public security bureau officials. One Uighur living on the east coast told The Daily Beast that Chinese police had demanded a copy of the individual’s employment contract with their university; another was told they had to provide a letter from their academic supervisor. If they don’t comply, these Uighurs know that their relatives may be detained.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#32 Traveler

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Posted 14 August 2018 - 02:30 PM

A non-like thanks.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#33 Traveler

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Posted 17 August 2018 - 09:07 AM

Time for the end of week update.

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Beijing has signaled a willingness to strike a deal that narrows the trade deficit. But policy advisers see little room to budge on some of Trump’s other demands, including an end to subsidies for strategic industries, a stop to forced technology transfer and more competition for state-owned enterprises. Those stipulations -- shared widely by both Republicans and Democrats alike -- are seen as posing an existential threat to the Communist Party, whose legitimacy to rule hinges on its ability to improve livelihoods.
So the cold war will continue. Glad we are not in China these days.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#34 Traveler

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Posted 17 August 2018 - 09:13 AM

But maybe they will actually address the issues?

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To restart trade negotiations with the U.S., China must offer a package of measures, according to Jacob Parker, the vice president for China operations for the U.S.-China Business Council in Beijing. China needs to make an offer that slashes the bilateral trade surplus, lowers import tariffs, provides better protection for intellectual property and stops forced technology transfers, Parker said earlier this month.
Not very likely...
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#35 Traveler

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Posted 17 August 2018 - 09:21 AM

This outlines the fundamental issues. They have very little to with the trade deficit.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#36 Traveler

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Posted 17 August 2018 - 09:22 AM

And finally (for now at least), how the Fed is also pressuring China.

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More to the point, with debt approaching 300 percent of gross domestic product, any interest-rate increase would raise debt-servicing costs substantially and place enormous pressure on Chinese firms. This is exactly why the government is trying to keep rates down and maintain the peg. No country can depend on debt-financed investment to drive growth in an overleveraged economy if interest rates are rising.

This leaves China in a bind. If it wants to retain the soft peg to the dollar, it will need to accept a weaker yuan as spreads narrow, or raise interest rates. If it doesn’t want to remain as closely linked to the dollar, it will need to link the yuan to another currency or let it float in some way — yet this would alsoimply a weaker yuan and higher interest rates.

In other words, something has to give. China has long talked about moving away from an investment-based growth model but never seriously tried it. The time for talking may soon be up.

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#37 Traveler

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Posted 17 August 2018 - 09:29 AM

Spoke too soon. This article does a very good job getting to the bottom of why China is so predatory.

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The struggle to make a decent life under conditions of intense competition and general scarcity has made social unrest a chronic condition in China. The government no longer releases statistics on the number of strikes and protests, and the official media outlets rarely cover them, but there is little doubt that discontent is both broad and deep. China Labour Bulletin’s unofficial tally of labor disturbances stood at 1,257 for 2017 and rose to 1,063 in the first seven months of 2018. Since these numbers reflect only the cases accessible online, largely via social media, the monitoring group believes the real number might be 10 to 20 times higher.

Chinese leaders have concluded that the only way to manage this dangerous instability is to continue the current trajectory of development and maintain China’s movement to higher-value production. What they fear above all else is that China might fall into the “middle-income trap,” in which a country’s developmental trajectory levels off and stagnates well short of advanced status. Countries such as Egypt, Thailand, and Brazil are mired in such a condition, frustrating the aspirations of their people and giving rise to widespread political turmoil.

China’s leaders are intensely aware of this experience as well as earlier Chinese precedents, including the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 that were fueled by high inflation and economic dislocation. Several years ago, Wang Qishan—often considered the second-most powerful man in China—made Alexis de Tocqueville’s The Old Regime and the Revolution required reading for top cadres, warning explicitly that China’s current situation resembled that of France on the eve of revolution.

Feeling their backs against the wall, no amount of pressure from the United States will convince Chinese leaders to give up their development strategy. But why should they? Raising a country from poverty and increasing opportunities for everyone should not be controversial goals. Why, then, are so many in the United States jumping at the chance to condemn China for it? The answer is that, under the existing form of globalization, the only way to achieve development is to “cheat”—where cheating is defined as significant state intervention in the market economy. The only major countries that have achieved a developmental breakthrough are precisely those that have manipulated the terms on offer by the global economy.
Seems like most Chinese are at the very same knife edge of financial ruin as most Americans. But far poorer to start with.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#38 Traveler

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Posted 19 August 2018 - 11:08 AM

This is a pretty good take on why the Chinese are so afraid of the strikes, and social unrest.

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Tocqueville analyses the causes of the French revolution by examining social conditions under the "old regime". He wrote that when the revolution erupted, the "old regime" of Louis XVI was at its most prosperous, but that prosperity had fuelled social disparity, leading to the revolution. He offered an explanation as to why prosperity did not prevent a major revolution but, on the contrary, fomented one.

Although China is the second-largest economy in the world, with its people enjoying unprecedented wealth, polarisation has also reached an all-time high. Its Gini coefficient, which measures income disparity, is 0.61 - way above the internationally recognised danger threshold of 0.4. On the scale, 0 means perfect equality and 1 maximal inequality

Tocqueville also believed that not all the revolution's legacies were positive, even though it overthrew the old regime and took France into a new era of equality and democracy. After overthrowing the autocratic monarchy by violent means, socials ill reappeared after undergoing a makeover.

Economist Hua Sheng , the president of Yanjing Overseas Chinese University, recalled on his blog recently a comment that Wang made about the book.

"For a country like China, with substantial weight in the world, historical and contemporary experience shows that its transformation towards modernity will not be smooth. The Chinese themselves have not paid a sufficient price yet," Hua quoted Wang as saying when advising him to read the book.

Analysts said Wang's remark reflected the fear among leaders that a revolution - the price to pay for modernisation - was looming in the world's last major communist-ruled nation.

The factors that contributed to the French revolution and the waves of revolution that reverberated through North Africa and the Middle East in the past two years can be seen in today's China. These include widespread discontent caused by despotism, corruption, social inequality, social injustice, unemployment and inflation, along with the rise of the middle class. Public protests in China, officially described as "mass incidents", have recently exceeded 100,000 a year.

"This is exactly why Wang and other senior leaders wanted officials to study the book, because what Tocqueville saw in France two centuries ago has an almost exact replica in today's China," Gu said.

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#39 AnBr

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Posted 19 August 2018 - 02:15 PM

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when the revolution erupted, the "old regime" of Louis XVI was at its most prosperous, but that prosperity had fuelled social disparity, leading to the revolution. He offered an explanation as to why prosperity did not prevent a major revolution but, on the contrary, fomented one.

Kind of backwards reasoning. Why does increasing disparity alone not explain it? The conditions of prerevolutionary Paris were just awful. Perhaps you could have such disparity, but the average man needs have to be adequately met, first. Too many people struggling just to survive is only a guarantee of an unstable society.
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#40 Traveler

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Posted 19 August 2018 - 02:55 PM

Which I don't think is the case with China. The CCP misinterprets discontent as folks being in dire conditions. It sure ain't great for many in the cities, but nobody is going hungry or homeless.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire





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