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#1 Traveler

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 08:04 AM

Folks, I think it is long past time to discuss China, a nation with which I am pretty familiar. As you might know, I am no fan of many Chinese policies, and support measures that go after IP theft and the egregious impediments on foreign firms doing business in China. Not tariffs. So as an intro, I present an interesting article on how Henry K still has hand in.

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The former secretary of state—who famously engineered the tactic of establishing diplomatic relations with China in order to isolate the Soviet Union—pitched almost the inverse of that idea to Trump during a series of private meetings during the presidential transition, five people familiar with the matter told The Daily Beast. The potential strategy would use closer relations with Russia, along with other countries in the region, to box in China’s growing power and influence.

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#2 Traveler

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 08:17 AM

Bloomberg has been publishing a raft of stories on China the past weeks. This is a pretty good one.

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For one thing, China would refrain from further militarizing disputed areas of the South China Sea, and instead sit down with the other claimants, maybe giving an inch or two to reach a compromise that gained foreign support while maintaining China’s dominance. To resolve the trade war with Washington, China could focus on the very Confucian principle of reciprocity, and be willing to treat foreign companies on its turf the way its companies are treated overseas. And with Belt and Road, Xi could be more magnanimous and share the program’s benefits more evenly with its participants, thereby avoiding a popular blowback.

Likely wishful thinking.
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#3 Traveler

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 08:20 AM

And here is how the trade war is affecting US carmakers.

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Fiat Chrysler’s newly appointed CEO Mark Manley said that “it's obvious, China is clearly a key priority for me in the coming weeks,” noting that the company’s imported vehicles were hit by Beijing’s retaliatory duties on the U.S. The automaker’s average revenue per car fell 27 percent as shipments dropped. The high-end Maserati brand posted margins of just 0.4 percent and revenue plunged almost 50 percent from a year earlier, chiefly because of weakness in China.


At Ford, CEO Jim Hackett said he was “extremely dissatisfied” with China operations, where sales fell by one-quarter in the first half of the year. The company broke out its local results for the first time, unconsolidated from its Chinese joint-venture partner and the total: It lost market share, and more than half a billion dollars. CFO Bob Shanks acknowledged the risk from a nationalistic backlash in China of the kind that hurt Japanese and South Korean companies, but said Ford had “thought through those potential implications.”

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
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#4 AnBr

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 09:49 AM

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The potential strategy would use closer relations with Russia

I don't see how this is possible with the current state of affairs with Putin's Russia.
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#5 Traveler

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 10:01 AM

Which the article notes in detail. For now Xi and Putin are buddies. A matter of convenience for Xi, a matter of existential neccessity for Putin. But if Russia were to actually want to rejoin the planet, then would be a very different scenario.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#6 LFC

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 11:20 AM

View PostTraveler, on 26 July 2018 - 10:01 AM, said:

Which the article notes in detail. For now Xi and Putin are buddies. A matter of convenience for Xi, a matter of existential neccessity for Putin. But if Russia were to actually want to rejoin the planet, then would be a very different scenario.

Which makes a lot of sense especially when place in perspective with Putin's success at using Trump and the GOP to rip apart Western alliances.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

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#7 DCoronata

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 11:23 AM

I have so many opinions on this topic, both business and personal.

Its harder to divorce Chinese industry and business from Chinese people, they're far more selfish and far more mercenary than Russians. Communism fell upon China almost as an accident, they're historically very cut-throat capitalist and have an attitude of total distrust of foreigners. Russia has always been the eternal pessimist, philosophical and self-destructive. But able to take brutal hardships and fight together.

Yeah I know, very simplistic, very prejudicial and very emotional and yet, you see what you see. If there weren't nearly a billion and a half Chinese we wouldn't be having this conversation, they're strength is in their numbers, they've historically stopped punching their weight three centuries ago. Russia was always an industrial powerhouse that totally collapsed because of their system, rather than their people. China is an old country embracing the modern world, Russia is an old country escaping its past. Given their histories, I would rather move towards Russia but those several thousand nukes aimed at us still scares me.
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#8 Traveler

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 11:34 AM

Another good article on China trade.

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But at least Trump is now pointing his guns more or less in the right direction. Now he needs to start fighting smarter. Tariffs on Chinese goods shouldn't include intermediate inputs that U.S. companies use to make their products — they should only be put on consumer goods like phones, laptops, cars, washing machines and refrigerators. Also, Trump should make common cause with rich allies in Europe and East Asia, dropping all of his tariffs against them and enlisting them in a united front to force China to play fair.
Like, duh.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#9 Traveler

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 11:49 AM

And from Ransomexx' comment.

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Farmers take out lines of credit in the spring — usually due the following Jan. 1 — to pay for seed and other input costs, and then pay the loans back after harvest. Like any other loan, there are consequences to not paying, including losing the farm. Farmers are going to know before the midterm elections if they are going to be able to pay back loans.

The larger farm operations and the larger agribusinesses will be hovering, looking for any weakness, and ready to purchase smaller farms. And rest assured, when the Trump payments are made to farmers, the larger operations will be the ones that gobble them up.

Mr. Perdue, and likely President Trump, know the $12 billion won’t make a difference, even in the short term. Farmers and others in the industry know the offer is meaningless. But most rural Republicans aren’t farmers, and many are Fox News devotees. So when they turn on Tucker Carlson or Sean Hannity, the hosts will likely extol the “virtues” of Mr. Trump’s farm policies and tariffs rather than the reality of their failures.

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#10 LFC

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 01:17 PM

When segments of our society are determined to commit economic suicide just to piss off libruls there's a point where you just have to let them go and do it. Of course they'll blame "the government", i.e. the government that they had a lot to do with electing, rather than their own self-destructive behavior and (even more unthinkable) forces out of our control.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#11 Practical Girl

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 01:34 PM

View PostTraveler, on 26 July 2018 - 08:20 AM, said:


Might want to look into other things afoot. China has been busy demanding technology from automakers, basically in exchange for cheaper labor. Worth a heck of a lot more than any of the business, in the end. People talk a lot about the sales etc. I happen to think that isn't China's end game here.
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#12 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 26 July 2018 - 01:36 PM

View PostTraveler, on 26 July 2018 - 11:34 AM, said:

Now he needs to start fighting smarter.

I think I see the problem here.
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#13 Beelzebuddy

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Posted 03 August 2018 - 04:58 PM

bump
Fear Sells!

Cui bono?

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#14 LFC

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Posted 03 August 2018 - 05:23 PM

From the now defunct thread I started on the same topic.

Here we have an article at TDB that is behind a paywall but looks interesting at the first paragraph.

Quote

China is America’s biggest banker — and the rest of the world’s, too. As the financial power of the United States dwindles, and Trump policies inject increasing doses of chaos to its management, China’s carefully calculated chokehold over entire nations, entire economies, is paying off. In front of our eyes, the debt controlled by the People’s Republic of China in client states is being reshaped into tangible geopolitical benefits.


It looks like they're going head to head with the U.S. on two of the greatest levers of foreign influence available to a super power; foreign aid and an international banking system.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#15 Traveler

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Posted 03 August 2018 - 07:43 PM

I have been following the One Belt One Road (OBOR) strategy for some time. However, Pakistan, Philippines, Malaysia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka have all been burned already. Dont know much about African nations. And some of the burnees are coming to IMF to bail out their Chinese loans with IRR's as high as 33%. No fucking way.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#16 Probabilistic

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Posted 04 August 2018 - 07:48 AM

View PostTraveler, on 26 July 2018 - 08:04 AM, said:

Folks, I think it is long past time to discuss China

Why is it so expensive when it's hardly used? Takes up unnecessary space. It's been going on for centuries. How come humanity hasn't paid attention to it until now? Indeed long past time. Kudos to you Traveler for taking up the cudgels. Swing away!

#17 Traveler

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Posted 04 August 2018 - 09:41 AM

Can you translate?
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#18 Probabilistic

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Posted 04 August 2018 - 10:15 AM

View PostTraveler, on 04 August 2018 - 09:41 AM, said:

Can you translate?

Posted Image

#19 Rich T Bikkies

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Posted 04 August 2018 - 10:16 AM

Clearly a bull is called for.
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#20 Traveler

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Posted 04 August 2018 - 12:14 PM

Good one Prob!
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire





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