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Trump May Blow Up Farm Bill Over Work Requirements


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#1 LFC

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 05:15 PM

I wonder how many Trump voters who are dependent on agriculture to make a living are second-guessing themselves right about now. First they take the hit from Mexico moving a chunk of its beef purchases, then it takes a hit from China looking elsewhere for soybeans, and now this.

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President Donald Trump may blow up negotiations over the farm bill by demanding work requirements for food stamps.

Trump is expected to tell lawmakers Wednesday that he will veto any farm bill that doesn’t include stricter work requirements for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, commonly referred to as food stamps, the Wall Street Journal reported.

That demand, which could mean tens of billions of dollars in cuts to the anti-poverty program that serves more than 42 million Americans, is likely a nonstarter for Democrats, whose votes are needed for the bill to pass. The $100 billion legislative package, which Congress largely renews every five years to subsidize agriculture and food assistance programs, needs bipartisan support to pass the 60-vote threshold in the Senate. Eighty percent of the farm bill’s spending is on nutrition programs.

Currently, the House Republicans’ proposed farm bill, which was written behind closed doors and without Democratic input, is estimated to slash $20 billion from SNAP over the next 10 years. More than 2 million people could be pushed off the program, according to an analysis by the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, if the stringent proposed work requirements and anti-fraud measures are put into place. The House is expected to vote on the bill in the next week. The Senate has yet to put together its own version.

The Senate Agricultural Committee’s Republican chair, Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts, has said their proposal would be more bipartisan and was unlikely to include harsh work requirements. But Trump’s push to make the farm bill more partisan could bring the legislative package to a standstill.


I wonder how many farmers realize that a loss of SNAP money that big could pull the subsidies right now from under them.
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#2 JackD

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 10:58 PM

Look at it this way: Trump is unwittingly attempting to convince his supporters in rural areas that he is bad for them. Now if our people will just get out there and tell what we will try to do to help.

#3 DCoronata

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Posted 10 May 2018 - 07:18 AM

This is what happens when people magically believe that one party is the only choice available to them. American economic history shows that for the most part, Republicans have been much worse for the bottom line than Democrats, but you can't convince people who have their head securely up their behinds.

This is a table of jobs created during a president's term (note- because of the way Truman succeeded FDR I'm giving all jobs created during FDR's fourth term in Truman's column, and I'm treating the JFK/LBJ presidency as one, same with Nixon/Ford.) Also note that we didn't take accurate data for FDR's first six years, so for the sake of calculations his presidency began on January 1939.

FDR: 11,976K total jobs, 9714K private sector, 73 jobs reports. (164K total, 133K private). 18.9% of all jobs created, were government jobs.
Truman: 8302K total, 7757K private (96). 86.5K, 80.8K (6.6% Gov.)
Ike: 3445K total, 1669 private (96), 35.9K, 17.4K (51.65 Gov.)
JFK/LBJ: 15868K total, 12225K private (96), 165.5K, 127.3K (23% Gov.)
Nixon/Ford: 11264K total, 8421K private (96), 117.3K, 87.7K (25.2% Gov.)
Carter: 10279K total, 8979K private (48), 214.1K, 187.1K (12.6% Gov.)
Reagan: 16445K total, 14723K private (96), 171.3K, 153.4K (10.5% Gov.)
Bush 41: 2632K total, 1516K private (48), 54.8K, 31.6K, (42.4% Gov.)
Clinton: 22851K total, 20896K private (96), 238K, 217.7K (8.6% Gov.) Best performance of all
Bush 43: 1123K total, -21K private (96), 11.7K, -.2K (101.9% of all jobs government, net loss of private sector jobs)
Obama: 11714K total, 11K private (96), 12001K, 122K. 125K (only president with fewer government jobs at end of term)
Trump: 2432K total, 2424K private (15), 162.1K, 161.6K (0.3% government, "rounding errors")

I could do the same for GDP but it would take another hour...

Now I know people talk about "the president has to deal with the economy left to him by his predecessor" and there's certainly a lot of truth to that. But what if we break things down even further, and look at the yearly jobs data for each party's presidents.

Year 1: D 612K average jobs, R 171K average jobs
Year 2: D 2973K , R -325K (it should be noted, every Republican had a recession in their second year)
Year 3: D 2081K, R 1208K
Year 4: D 1854K, R 2130K
Year 5: D 782K, R 1449K (Note- one each democrat and republican failed to gain second terms)
Year 6: D 1650K, R 920K
Year 7: D 2711K, 1943K
Year 8: D 2220K, R -142K. (Ike, Bush 43 had recessions their final year, JFK, Obama started their presidencies during recessions)

This suggests that for the most part, several Republicans left office in downturn years, Carter had the only recession in the last ten that started during a Democratic presidency, there were no recessions that began during the Obama or Kennedy presidencies, and no recession during the Clinton presidency. With the exception of the Carter presidency that was plagued by the Iran/Iraq oil crisis, Democratic presidencies continue to grow until the end, they hit the tape running fast whereas Republicans die at the end. A lot of this can be attributed to "bad timing" but much of it seems to be clear, Democratic presidents average 1,833,000 new jobs per year, Republicans average 796,500 new jobs per year. Despite that discrepancy, there were almost as many government jobs created during Republican presidencies (D 9,417,000 vs. R 8,608,200 ) and a very large 2.5:1 discrepancy in private sector jobs created.
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#4 LFC

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Posted 10 May 2018 - 07:43 AM

"LFC" actually stands for lifetime fiscal conservative, my old name on Larry Kudlow's site where a bunch of us would get together and tear his idiocy to shreds ... until he decided to block comments. This chart tells me much of what I need to know about Republican policy. And we're about to see another big jump in the deficit.

Posted Image
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#5 LFC

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Posted 10 May 2018 - 07:45 AM

I read a great quote once about the Reagan "boom" and the Bush "boom" that said, "Give me an unlimited credit card and I'll give you the illusion of prosperity too." Living on credit and pushing the bills onto future generations has been the Republican way since Reagan who, as Dick Cheney purportedly said, proved that deficits don't matter.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#6 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 12 May 2018 - 07:49 PM

Well, credit cards and picking Peter's pockets to pay Paul. Remember, the Reagan (and post-) deficits would have been a lot larger if it hadn't been for diverting the FICA payroll taxes to hide them.

Remember? The ones that were raised in 1983 to pay down the debt so that Boomers could retire?

Looks like those retirement benefits that we've been paying for for the past 35 years didn't go to debt reduction, so we'll just have to have our benefits reduced anyway.
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