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#621 JackD

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Posted 05 February 2021 - 07:54 PM

He also ignored the concerns of Larry Summers. Thank God!

#622 AnBr

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Posted 08 February 2021 - 08:54 AM

Rapid Money Supply Growth Does Not Cause Inflation

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Monetarist theory, which came to dominate economic thinking in the 1980s and the decades that followed, holds that rapid money supply growth is the cause of inflation. The theory, however, fails an actual test of the available evidence. In our review of 47 countries, generally from 1960 forward, we found that more often than not high inflation does not follow rapid money supply growth, and in contrast to this, high inflation has occurred frequently when it has not been preceded by rapid money supply growth.

The purpose of this paper is to present these findings and solicit feedback on our data, methods, and conclusions.

“Trump’s a stupid man’s idea of a smart person, a poor man’s idea of a rich person & a weak man’s idea of a strong man.”

— Fran Lebowitz


“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937

#623 LFC

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Posted 08 February 2021 - 09:27 AM

 AnBr, on 08 February 2021 - 08:54 AM, said:


I guess they don't call it "the dismal science" for nothing.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#624 AnBr

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Posted 08 February 2021 - 06:49 PM

 LFC, on 08 February 2021 - 09:27 AM, said:

I guess they don't call it "the dismal science" for nothing.

Well when you have one side that rejects empirical data as being meaningless...
“Trump’s a stupid man’s idea of a smart person, a poor man’s idea of a rich person & a weak man’s idea of a strong man.”

— Fran Lebowitz


“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937

#625 LFC

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Posted 08 February 2021 - 07:26 PM

 AnBr, on 08 February 2021 - 06:49 PM, said:

Well when you have one side that rejects empirical data as being meaningless...

I'll go out on a very stout limb and say the likes of Art Laffer and Larry Kudlow are on that side.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#626 LFC

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Posted 09 February 2021 - 10:02 AM

 AnBr, on 08 February 2021 - 08:54 AM, said:


And yet there's a strong belief that it does, or at least can. A TPM reader has that concern (paywalled). Josh isn't so sure but admits he's no economist.

Quote

TPM Reader JL follows up on my post about the size the recovery package. This is the logical risk of too large a package. What I referenced yesterday was what seemed most salient from Summer’s column: even Summers, as the spokesman for traditional deficit concern and austerity, himself only seemed able to make a half-hearted argument about building up inflationary pressures in the economy. And that to me was the most telling thing about it.[indent]

Quote

Regarding Summers’ piece you make the comment, what is the economic harm if the amount of stimulus does turn out to be more than needed? The answer is that if the stimulus does cause the economy to become overheated, we could get accelerating inflation which might force the Fed to raise interest rates so fast that it chokes off the recovery/expansion. I.e., an overheated economy in late 2021 into early 2022 could lead to rapidly rising rates later in 2022 which could lead to a recession in 2023. Given the elevated level of US stocks premised on an expectation of low rates for an extended period of time, rapidly rising rates could also cause a very large drop in the stock market on the order of 30% or more (which would NOT be followed by a quick rebound). That could exacerbate/prolong a recession.

How likely is all of that? I don’t know (of course). But it’s more than a remote possibility. Does that mean the $1.9 trillion package is a mistake? No. But Summers is right to say that we’re in uncharted territory here. The cumulative stimulus over the last 12 months is huge between the CARES Act plus recent $900 billion plus the current package. Maybe 25% of GDP altogether. We haven’t seen anything anywhere close to that since WW II. And if we reach herd immunity later this year, that will create a significant stimulus unto itself as Americans whose finances have held up well over the last 12 months indulge in an orgy of travel and entertainment spending. The economic case for $1,9 trillion is very strong but to say there aren’t significant economic risks just isn’t correct IMO.

These are risks which, by conventional economic thinking, do flow from pumping a huge amount of demand into the economy. The problem is that we’ve been through this a number of times over the last quarter century. And it simply hasn’t happened. Indeed, deflation has been the threat far more than inflation for almost the entire post-Cold War era. I should also note that I know from other correspondence that JL is not himself a deficit scold. He’s pointing out that there are not zero risks to this.

In any case, I’m not an economist. And the point of my post yesterday wasn’t to litigate this technical discussion, something I’m not really in a position to do. My aim was slightly different. It was to note that even Summers, the big advocate of this kind of thinking within the Democratic party, was able to summon only such a tepid argument for it. That more than anything else tells me how much the terrain has shifted on this question.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#627 LFC

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Posted 09 February 2021 - 10:23 AM

The Progressive Dems have kept the $75,000 income threshold.

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The House is moving forward with a COVID-19 relief package without lowering the income threshold of eligibility for the $1,400 direct checks, which had been a large point of disagreement between moderate Democrats and progressives.

Under the new plan unveiled by Ways and Means Committee Chair Richard Neal (D-MA) on Monday night, individuals who make up to $75,000 a year would be eligible for the full payments, keeping threshold of the two previous payments under the Trump administration.

Additionally, couples filing together who make up to $150,000 would still be eligible for payments before the phaseout stage.

The move marks a victory for progressives as moderate Democrats had proposed lowering the cap to $50,000 for individual filers and $100,000 for couples before the amounts per payment begin to phase out.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#628 LFC

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Posted 09 February 2021 - 12:09 PM

Why does Larry Summers get so much coverage after he was so wrong the last time? Apparently in economics being completely and totally wrong isn't a disqualifier. Heck, that's why Art Laffer still has a job.

Quote

“We must make sure that it is enacted in a way that neither threatens future inflation and financial stability nor our ability to build back better through public investment,” he wrote this week. In other words, he’s worried about the risk of overheating the economy, and that once Congress passes one Covid-19 bill — especially one the size of Biden’s proposal — there’s going to be a reduced appetite for others.

Reduced appetite for "others?" There will be one more and one more only using reconciliation because Republicans will continue their do-nothing obstructive ways. In other words this is the only real shot for relief. The next one will be used to pushed for broader economic measures like minimum wage and green energy. If Summers hasn't learned this after serving under Obama then I'm afraid to say that he's not a very politically bright man and should maybe just shut up.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#629 AnBr

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Posted 20 February 2021 - 11:12 PM

Why Free Market Ideology is a Double Lie

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As social animals, humans live and die by the success of our groups. This raises a dilemma. What’s best for the group is often not what’s best for individuals within the group. If you’re surrounded by a group of trusting individuals, it’s best for you to lie and cheat. You’ll increase your relative fitness. And in evolutionary terms, that’s what matters.

Given that selfish behavior is often advantageous, why aren’t more of us liars and cheaters? One reason, paradoxically, is that we lie to ourselves. We tell ourselves that what’s best for groups is also what’s best for individuals within the group. I’ll call this the noble prosocial lie.[/size][/font][/color]

Propagating this noble lie, I believe, is one of the principle roles of ideologies. A good ideology convinces individuals that selfless behavior is in their self interest. This promotes prosocial behavior, making groups more cohesive. And since cohesive groups tend to beat out incohesive groups, the noble lie tends to spread.

Given the benefits of equating altruism with self interest, you’d think that all ideologies would do it. Yet some do the opposite. They promote selfish behavior as good for the group. I’ll call this the Machiavellian lie.

Now here’s the paradox. The Machiavellian lie should be caustic to social cohesion. So you’d expect that group selection would kill it off. But for one Machiavellian lie, that’s not what happened. Instead of dying out, this lie has thrived. In fact, it’s become the dominant ideology of our time. What is it?

The belief in the free market.

“Trump’s a stupid man’s idea of a smart person, a poor man’s idea of a rich person & a weak man’s idea of a strong man.”

— Fran Lebowitz


“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937

#630 LFC

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Posted 24 February 2021 - 09:07 AM

A number of business leaders are supporting the COVID relief bill.

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More than 150 business leaders from various industries have signed a letter backing President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package, according to CNN.

In the letter, which will be sent to congressional leaders of both parties on Wednesday, top business executives urge lawmakers to “act swiftly and on a bipartisan basis to authorize a stimulus and relief package along the lines of the Biden-Harris administration’s proposed American Rescue Plan.”

“Strengthening the public health response to coronavirus is the first step toward economic restoration,” they write. “The American Rescue Plan mobilizes a national vaccination program, delivers economic relief to struggling families, and supports communities that were most damaged by the pandemic.”

CNN reports that the executives represent the finance, tech, hospitality, real estate, and insurance industries. CEOs at major firms, such as Goldman Sachs, Google, and AT&T, have signed on to the letter.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#631 andydp

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Posted 02 March 2021 - 10:10 AM

Ran into this piece this AM. Funny how stimulus checks actually help states' revenues. Bottom line from the article states tax revenues were "mostly flat".

Virus Did Not Bring Financial Rout That Many States Feared

By some measures, the states ended up collecting nearly as much revenue in 2020 as they did in 2019. A J.P. Morgan survey called 2020 “virtually flat” with 2019, based on the 47 states that report their tax revenues every month, or all except Alaska, Oregon and Wyoming.

A researcher at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, a nonpartisan think tank, compared April through December 2020 and found total state revenues down just 1.8 percent compared with the same period in 2019. Moody’s Analytics used a different method and found that 31 states now had enough cash to fully absorb the economic stress of the pandemic recession on their own.
“You can see it’s just a completely different story this time,” said Louise Sheiner, a Brookings Institution economist whose research showed that over all, the states struggled far less during the pandemic than in previous recessions.


Virus Did Not Bring Financial Rout That Many States Feared (ctmobi.com)


PS: (Snark warning) Does this mean tax cuts don't do anything for everyday people ?
Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity.
Rev Martin Luther King Jr.

Obamacare took my guns away and put me in a FEMA reeducation camp
Anonymous

If you've got public schools paid for by taxpayers, you're in a socialist nation. If you have public roads paid for by taxpayers, socialist nation. If you've got public defense (police, fire, military, coast guard) paid for by tax dollars, socialist nation. If you're in a nation that has nationalized or localized delivery of services that are not paid for by users alone, you're in a socialist nation- the only question is how socialist. As I see it, we pay the military pay to protect the shipping lanes for our fuel needs which makes us very socialist. In a capitalist nation, the people supplying the oil would pay for their own defense force.
DC Coronata

“I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.”

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(Select anyone who gets blind loyalty from followers/voters) "...is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life."(Manchurian candidate)



"I can't go out because of the virus" sounds whiny and boring. I'm going with: "I've sworn an oath of solitude until the pestilence is purged from the lands." because it sounds more valiant and heroic. As a bonus, people might think you're carrying a sword.

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Its theorized if you put enough monkeys together with typewriters, eventually they'll write Shakespeare. But first, they write Trump speeches.

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When you have no basis for an argument, abuse the plaintiff. Marcus Tullius Cicero


What separates the winners from the losers is how a person reacts to each new twist of fate.

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I get it. They had a guy ratf**k the post office. They filled the courts with hacks. They spent a ton of money. They filed so many lawsuits. They even started a riot ! It’s so unfair that they went to all that trouble and still lost. Anonymous

#632 Traveler

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Posted 02 March 2021 - 10:48 AM

The Dems should take that provision out of the stimulus bill. Along with MW. And tighten eligibility. There is a lot of thought that it is too large as is and will overheat the recovery. I say save the bucks for infrastructure instead.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
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#633 golden_valley

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Posted 02 March 2021 - 11:08 AM

View Postandydp, on 02 March 2021 - 10:10 AM, said:

Ran into this piece this AM. Funny how stimulus checks actually help states' revenues. Bottom line from the article states tax revenues were "mostly flat".

Virus Did Not Bring Financial Rout That Many States Feared

By some measures, the states ended up collecting nearly as much revenue in 2020 as they did in 2019. A J.P. Morgan survey called 2020 “virtually flat” with 2019, based on the 47 states that report their tax revenues every month, or all except Alaska, Oregon and Wyoming.

A researcher at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, a nonpartisan think tank, compared April through December 2020 and found total state revenues down just 1.8 percent compared with the same period in 2019. Moody’s Analytics used a different method and found that 31 states now had enough cash to fully absorb the economic stress of the pandemic recession on their own.
“You can see it’s just a completely different story this time,” said Louise Sheiner, a Brookings Institution economist whose research showed that over all, the states struggled far less during the pandemic than in previous recessions.


Virus Did Not Bring Financial Rout That Many States Feared (ctmobi.com)



PS: (Snark warning) Does this mean tax cuts don't do anything for everyday people ?

CA revenue turned out to be not nearly as bad as predicted because the upper income tax brackets are still providing a lot of revenue. How long will that last? There are still lots of cuts to be made and it will be to basic services because the balanced budget requirements do prevent bloated, fatty budgets and that means services are lean in the first place.

#634 LFC

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Posted 02 March 2021 - 11:35 AM

View PostTraveler, on 02 March 2021 - 10:48 AM, said:

The Dems should take that provision out of the stimulus bill. Along with MW. And tighten eligibility.

I'd say reduce but not remove. A lot of states did get hurt. Looking at Golden Valley's post that's 31 states are in decent shape but who knows what they cut to get there.

I agree on minimum wage unless they can get Manchin and Sinema in fast at $12 and indexed for inflation. In that case move fast.

I'd be OK with some tightening of eligibility if it didn't turn into a pissing contest and slow things down but I view zeroing on a specific level as potential political quicksand.


Quote

There is a lot of thought that it is too large as is and will overheat the recovery.

I posted over here that "a lot of thought" has been pretty wrong for years across the globe. Too much money supply overheating the economy is an article of economic faith rather than well proven theory based upon evidence. I also can't see a few hundred billion more dangerously impacting a nation that had a $21T GDP in a year with a pandemic raging.


Quote

I say save the bucks for infrastructure instead.

I do like that idea very much. I think it's also good politics. Dems could propose it, promote it, pass it, and the nation could watch Republicans whine about it without doing anything constructive (pun intended) to move it forward. "Both sides talked about it in 2016 but Joe Biden and the Democrats delivered!"
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer





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