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Economics: Today's Jobs Report

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#61 LFC

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 09:22 AM

 DCoronata, on 12 June 2018 - 08:44 AM, said:

Inflation data in, CPI (consumer price index) up 0.2% for the month, 2.8% for the year.
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
https://www.bls.gov/.../empsit.t19.htm
And hourly wages for the last 12 months, up 3.0% so for all practical purposes, no wage gains for the average person.
Thanks, Trump.

You clearly don't understand economics. All we have to do is wait long enough (and perhaps cut taxes a bit more) and it will be candy and unicorns for everybody!
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

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""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#62 DCoronata

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 09:42 AM

 D. C. Sessions, on 12 June 2018 - 09:18 AM, said:

Assuming that the inflation numbers are good (big if) it's possibly a bit of searoom for the next recession. September?
If you include inflation, and indeed they do, the last six months are seeing a slowdown in two critical data points, retail sales and household savings.

Six month moving average for savings rate, was 3.40% six months ago, is 2.85% now. That pretty much means people are spending more and more of what they ain't got. This has actually recovered from near-record lows in December (2.4%), as "consumer confidence" caused people to essentially spend like there was no tomorrow. Now bear in mind, the last time rates were this bad was 2005 on the threshold of the massive recession. Also had rising gas prices then.

Retail sales had a terrible Jan-Apr period, first four months (seasonally adjusted) was only (monthly average) 1.7% higher than last six months of 2017. So we're cutting back on spending as well as having fewer savings.

Think of this- GM and FCA has decided they won't release monthly auto sales any more. Yeah, that's a sign of strength!
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#63 DCoronata

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 09:08 AM

Producer price inflation (PPI, the "I" stands for index) went through the fucking roof, as if nobody noticed.
https://www.bls.gov/...ase/ppi.nr0.htm
Monthly inflation up by 0.5%, energy inflation 3.8%. 12 month inflation rate, 3.1%.

To put that into perspective, 12 month wage inflation for Americans, 2.8%. We're earning less per hour after inflation, than we did last year.
Ambassador Spock: "There's an old Vulcan proverb, that only Nixon could go to China, and only Trump could screw up North Korea."

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“Do you believe we can trust you rabble with a Republic?"

#64 Traveler

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 11:48 AM

What about CPI? Similar trend?
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#65 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 11:57 AM

 Traveler, on 13 June 2018 - 11:48 AM, said:

What about CPI? Similar trend?

Lagging indicator.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
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"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
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#66 DCoronata

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 12:54 PM

 Traveler, on 13 June 2018 - 11:48 AM, said:

What about CPI? Similar trend?
CPI +2.8% 12 months, which is lower (and yeah, lagging as producer increases come up through the price chain) but really not that much lower.

Just once I'd like to see a TV or radio economist (hear...) them discuss not just employment situations report wage data, but put that wage data in comparison to CPI.

https://fred.stlouis...s/CES0500000003
https://fred.stlouis...series/CPIAUCSL
I love how this worked out! If you divide hourly by CPI and multiply by 100, on May 2006 you get an index of exactly $10.00/hour, for normalization, that's just too nice for words!
May data through May data
2006-2007 +0.80(annual gains)
2007-2008 -0.98%
2008-2009 3.99% (asterisks)
2009-2010 -1.02% (recovery begins)
2010-2011 -1.37%
2011-2012 0.00%
2012-2013 +0.74%
2013-2014 -0.01%
2014-2015 +2.30%
2015-2016 1.38%
2016-2017 0.58%
2017-2018 -0.01%

Asterisk- sometimes in recessions, the first to be fired are lower wage staff.

Okay, so lets just use post-recession Obama and Trump: Obama (7 years, 9 months) 0.523% annual hourly gains after inflation.
One of these days I've got to break this down further, they didn't do hourly before 2006.
Trump (16 reports) 0.456% and all of that in early 2017.

How great is economic growth and jobs growth if wages are absolutely flat when you have 3.8% U3?
Ambassador Spock: "There's an old Vulcan proverb, that only Nixon could go to China, and only Trump could screw up North Korea."

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“Do you believe we can trust you rabble with a Republic?"

#67 DCoronata

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 07:50 AM

ARGGGGH, I HATE WHEN THEY DO THIS.
Okay, Bloomberg Radio reports a huge up in MARTS (retail sales) but they didn't mention that they've totally changed the methodology for reporting.

"Special Notice: Monthly retail sales estimates were revised to reflect the introduction of a new sample, new seasonal factors, and the results of the 2016 Annual Retail Trade Survey. Estimates were restated based on the incorporation of the NAICS 2012 definitions."

So Bloomberg reported the nice 0.8% gain but they failed to mention the downward revision the previous month (from +0.6% to +0.4%). As a result, the change over time is not as strong as reported, and the change in the last year for gasoline sales is $22 billion dollars a month. There goes the tax cut... Think about this, Americans will spend about 150 billion more in gas this year than last, and the increase in wages for non-supervisory workers is (last year vs this) $209.65 billion dollars.

Current dollar (not inflation adjusted) average weekly wages, $928.74. Last year, same info, $901.62. Using a 52 week year, and the current # (note, not averaging for the year, using maxima) 148,662,000 total payroll employees.

The increase in gasoline costs alone, eats up nearly three-quarters of wage gains for Americans. And again, that's before core inflation.

We are going backwards.
Ambassador Spock: "There's an old Vulcan proverb, that only Nixon could go to China, and only Trump could screw up North Korea."

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“Do you believe we can trust you rabble with a Republic?"

#68 pnwguy

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 08:48 AM

 DCoronata, on 14 June 2018 - 07:50 AM, said:

The increase in gasoline costs alone, eats up nearly three-quarters of wage gains for Americans. And again, that's before core inflation.
No worries. The GOP will make sure their paymasters get ALL the US to look like this, to fix those high gas prices. Well, except for any Trump properties.
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#69 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 10:11 AM

 DCoronata, on 13 June 2018 - 12:54 PM, said:


For those who haven't used it, FRED is awesome.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#70 DCoronata

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 10:12 AM

 D. C. Sessions, on 14 June 2018 - 10:11 AM, said:

For those who haven't used it, FRED is awesome.
I keep forgetting, I'm new here..

I always used to say, "FRED is your friend!"

BTW, I also used to say this:

https://www.cbsnews....s-scott-pelley/

Scott Pelley: What's your plan for Obamacare?
Donald Trump: Obamacare's going to be repealed and replaced. Obamacare is a disaster if you look at what's going on with premiums where they're up 45, 50, 55 percent.
Scott Pelley: How do you fix it?
Donald Trump: There's many different ways, by the way. Everybody's got to be covered. This is an un-Republican thing for me to say because a lot of times they say, "No, no, the lower 25 percent that can't afford private." But--
Scott Pelley: Universal health care?
Donald Trump: I am going to take care of everybody. I don't care if it costs me votes or not. Everybody's going to be taken care of much better than they're taken care of now.

Scott Pelley: The uninsured person is going to be taken care of how?
Donald Trump: They're going to be taken care of. I would make a deal with existing hospitals to take care of people. And, you know what, if this is probably--
Scott Pelley: Make a deal? Who pays for it?
Donald Trump: --the government's gonna pay for it. But we're going to save so much money on the other side. But for the most it's going to be a private plan and people are going to be able to go out and negotiate great plans with lots of different competition with lots of competitors with great companies and they can have their doctors, they can have plans, they can have everything.
Ambassador Spock: "There's an old Vulcan proverb, that only Nixon could go to China, and only Trump could screw up North Korea."

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“Do you believe we can trust you rabble with a Republic?"

#71 golden_valley

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 10:18 AM

 DCoronata, on 14 June 2018 - 10:12 AM, said:

I keep forgetting, I'm new here..

I always used to say, "FRED is your friend!"

BTW, I also used to say this:

https://www.cbsnews....s-scott-pelley/

Scott Pelley: What's your plan for Obamacare?
Donald Trump: Obamacare's going to be repealed and replaced. Obamacare is a disaster if you look at what's going on with premiums where they're up 45, 50, 55 percent.
Scott Pelley: How do you fix it?
Donald Trump: There's many different ways, by the way. Everybody's got to be covered. This is an un-Republican thing for me to say because a lot of times they say, "No, no, the lower 25 percent that can't afford private." But--
Scott Pelley: Universal health care?
Donald Trump: I am going to take care of everybody. I don't care if it costs me votes or not. Everybody's going to be taken care of much better than they're taken care of now.

Scott Pelley: The uninsured person is going to be taken care of how?
Donald Trump: They're going to be taken care of. I would make a deal with existing hospitals to take care of people. And, you know what, if this is probably--
Scott Pelley: Make a deal? Who pays for it?
Donald Trump: --the government's gonna pay for it. But we're going to save so much money on the other side. But for the most it's going to be a private plan and people are going to be able to go out and negotiate great plans with lots of different competition with lots of competitors with great companies and they can have their doctors, they can have plans, they can have everything.

His solution for everything is to make a deal. He doesn't seem interested in the contents of the deal.

#72 LFC

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 10:31 AM

 DCoronata, on 14 June 2018 - 10:12 AM, said:

Scott Pelley: What's your plan for Obamacare?
Donald Trump: Obamacare's going to be repealed and replaced. Obamacare is a disaster if you look at what's going on with premiums where they're up 45, 50, 55 percent.
Scott Pelley: How do you fix it?
Donald Trump: There's many different ways, by the way. Everybody's got to be covered. This is an un-Republican thing for me to say because a lot of times they say, "No, no, the lower 25 percent that can't afford private." But--
Scott Pelley: Universal health care?
Donald Trump: I am going to take care of everybody. I don't care if it costs me votes or not. Everybody's going to be taken care of much better than they're taken care of now.

Scott Pelley: The uninsured person is going to be taken care of how?
Donald Trump: They're going to be taken care of. I would make a deal with existing hospitals to take care of people. And, you know what, if this is probably--
Scott Pelley: Make a deal? Who pays for it?
Donald Trump: --the government's gonna pay for it. But we're going to save so much money on the other side. But for the most it's going to be a private plan and people are going to be able to go out and negotiate great plans with lots of different competition with lots of competitors with great companies and they can have their doctors, they can have plans, they can have everything.

To be fair, universal healthcare is really, really hard. "Who knew? Nobody knew!"
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#73 LFC

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 10:56 AM

Is the Fed Chair, who was Trump's nominee, blind, a sycophant, or just dumb as f***? This wasn't just predictable it was predicted by one person after another who were either economists or savvy on the functioning of the U.S. economy. How the hell could he be confused by this?

Quote

Halfway through a news conference Wednesday, the head of the world’s most powerful central bank was asked a question weighing on the minds — and the checking accounts — of Americans everywhere:

When will people finally start getting meaningful pay raises?

Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, had no satisfactory answer.

He called it a “puzzle.” And then, as if measuring his words, he said he wasn’t prepared to call it a “mystery.”

Puzzle or mystery, the source of the consternation is this: The U.S. unemployment rate has dropped to a multi-decade low of 3.8 percent. A shortage of qualified people to hire has frustrated many employers who have complained that they can’t fill job openings.

In theory, those two factors should combine to unleash a wave of robust pay raises for everyone from construction crews, teachers, accountants and hotel clerks to engineers, janitors, butchers, baristas and even summer interns.

It hasn’t happened — not in most industries, anyway.

Powell acknowledged that he couldn’t say for sure why wage growth remains generally tepid. He said he “certainly would have expected pay raises to react more” to falling unemployment.

Echoing what other economists, including his predecessors and colleagues at the Fed, have suggested, Powell offered up one likely factor: the economy’s relatively low productivity growth. Put simply, American workers aren’t generating enough additional value for each hour on the job.

Or maybe, just maybe, companies, their C-suite execs, their boards, and their major shareholders have realized that their personal gains will be much greater if they just take their profits and plow them into stock buybacks and other investments. The same short-term thinking causes them to create "contractor" jobs to avoid hiring and pay raises. (My own company has squeezed wages and increased bonuses which is going to really come as a shock to some people when growth starts to slow.) And of course technological advances have been recognized as a rising impact on regular jobs for years.

The magic of the market on income hasn't been in place for 20 years, at least not for the regular worker. They're treading water at best.

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" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#74 DCoronata

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 01:39 PM

Spamming myself, I just posted this on The Hill.

We just had a massive tax cut, aimed almost entirely at the rich and businesses and you would think that such a large business tax cut would act as a stimulus to hire more people, and to increase wages.
In the months since the tax cut, hourly wages went up from $26.64 an hour to $26.92 an hour. That's a nice 1.05% increase, right? But CPI (consumer price index) went from 247.910 to 250.535. that's a difference of 1.06%. Those numbers are insignificant, but they show that the average worker is not doing any better now than he or she did five months ago, and that should never happen after such a massive business tax cut.
So let's turn that around- what happened in Obama's last four years? Without the tax cut, wages went from $23.75/hr to $25.99/hr, an increase of 9.04% on wages. CPI went up to 244.028 from 231.679, an increase of 5.33%. So workers under Obama's last four years saw a total increase of 3.90%, or annualized at 0.96%. Now isn't a nearly 1% annual real wage increase without a massive tax cut for business, better than no wage increase and a massive tax cut that just put a huge hole in the national budget?
And for the record, we just had the largest monthly budget deficit in nearly ten years, a 146.8 billion dollar deficit for the month of May. Now think of that- you had a single month where the US spent 146.8 billion more than it took in, that's $449 per capita for one month, and the average worker saw no benefit.
In the last year our national debt went up from $19.846 trillion to 21.0995 trillion, that's 1.2535 trillion dollars, more than one and a quarter trillion dollars, that's roughly $3,833 for every man woman and child, in a relatively strong economic climate, with the rest of the world doing fine, and the average American worker has nothing to show for it.

Edit: Typos repaired
Ambassador Spock: "There's an old Vulcan proverb, that only Nixon could go to China, and only Trump could screw up North Korea."

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“Do you believe we can trust you rabble with a Republic?"

#75 baw1064

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 01:50 PM

 pnwguy, on 14 June 2018 - 08:48 AM, said:

No worries. The GOP will make sure their paymasters get ALL the US to look like this, to fix those high gas prices. Well, except for any Trump properties.
Posted Image

Trump properties will have gold plated oil rigs!
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#76 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 02:10 PM

 LFC, on 14 June 2018 - 10:56 AM, said:

The magic of the market on income hasn't been in place for 20 years, at least not for the regular worker. They're treading water at best.

More like 40 years. The latter half of the 90s was an exceptional blip, mostly erased by now.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#77 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 02:13 PM

 DCoronata, on 14 June 2018 - 01:39 PM, said:

CPI went from 244.028 to 231.679, an increase of 5.33%. So workers under Obama's last four years saw a total increase of 3.90%, or annualized at 0.96%. Now isn't a nearly 1% annual real wage increase without a massive tax cut for business, better than no wage increase and a massive tax cut that just put a huge hole in the national budget?

244.028 to 231.679 is not, best I can tell, an increase.

Quote

In the last year our national debt went up from $19.846 trillion to 21.0995 trillion, that's 1.2535 trillion dollars, more than one and a quarter trillion dollars, that's roughly $3.833 for every man woman and child

I think your decimal point is a bit offset. 1.2535E12/327E6=3833 -- I suspect you intended a comma, although some countries IIRC use the punt in that role and a comma where we use a punt.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#78 DCoronata

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 02:27 PM

 D. C. Sessions, on 14 June 2018 - 02:13 PM, said:

244.028 to 231.679 is not, best I can tell, an increase.



I think your decimal point is a bit offset. 1.2535E12/327E6=3833 -- I suspect you intended a comma, although some countries IIRC use the punt in that role and a comma where we use a punt.
The Hill has a terrible DISQUS application, they open a small window filled with ads and it makes it very hard to read and edit. Essentially it's a postage stamp and any typos I generate in the creation process aren't as easily seen in proofreading. Come to think of it, the last two DISQUS websites had this, and I guess this generates new pages and looks better for the advertisers. If you aren't paying for a product, you're the product,

I had written about these concepts earlier here, just expanded it into a less friendly venue.
Ambassador Spock: "There's an old Vulcan proverb, that only Nixon could go to China, and only Trump could screw up North Korea."

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“Do you believe we can trust you rabble with a Republic?"

#79 AnBr

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 08:07 PM

 DCoronata, on 14 June 2018 - 01:39 PM, said:

We just had a massive tax cut, aimed almost entirely at the rich and businesses and you would think that such a large business tax cut would act as a stimulus to hire more people, and to increase wages.

Strange, I always thought that the need for more labor was why businesses hired more people and paid them more to keep them. Silly me, I should have realized that lack of tax cuts are the real reason that holds them back.
“Trump’s a stupid man’s idea of a smart person, a poor man’s idea of a rich person & a weak man’s idea of a strong man.”

— Fran Lebowitz


“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

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On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


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Second inaugural address January, 1937

#80 DCoronata

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Posted 15 June 2018 - 05:13 AM

 AnBr, on 14 June 2018 - 08:07 PM, said:

Strange, I always thought that the need for more labor was why businesses hired more people and paid them more to keep them. Silly me, I should have realized that lack of tax cuts are the real reason that holds them back.
Maybe 20,000 Disqus comments ago on Bloomberg, I made the case that as long as companies make a profit on an employee's work, that employee has value and as long as their profits and markets justify expansion, they will expand. I got roundly "booed" at the suggestion that capitalism, not tax rates, guided jobs.
Remember how many Republicans said this would cause real wage increases? Either they are terrible businessmen, terrible capitalists, or lying sons-of-bitches, and I wouldn't put it past them to be all three.
Ambassador Spock: "There's an old Vulcan proverb, that only Nixon could go to China, and only Trump could screw up North Korea."

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“Do you believe we can trust you rabble with a Republic?"





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