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Economics: Today's Jobs Report

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#41 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 31 May 2018 - 10:03 AM

View PostDCoronata, on 31 May 2018 - 09:19 AM, said:

Social security spending went up strongly in January, and this is probably caused by a combination of COLA and more people retiring at the end of the year.

The checks are negligibly different from last year's.

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Xmas, of course, but to put things in perspective, the current 2.8% personal savings rate is HORRIBLE!!!

When interest paid is below inflation, only suckers put money in savings instruments. "Investments" such as stocks don't get counted as "savings."
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#42 DCoronata

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Posted 31 May 2018 - 10:43 AM

View PostD. C. Sessions, on 31 May 2018 - 10:03 AM, said:

The checks are negligibly different from last year's.


When interest paid is below inflation, only suckers put money in savings instruments. "Investments" such as stocks don't get counted as "savings."

I agree totally with what you've said, but for the purposes of government accounting, "savings" means what you earned, minus what you've spent. A 2.8% savings rate means that even if you've invested it in the riskiest (even if most rewarding) investment vehicles, we were only able to do 2.8% of all income, and that includes wages, interest, dividends, SS payments, medicare benefits, and non-cash benefits received from your employer. It means for all practical purposes, what goes out is pretty much what's coming in and if you're an investor, it's hard to invest when you ain't got any money to spare at the end of the month.

Unless you're an institutional investor, or you're a corporation sitting on cash, or you're in the 1%.
Ambassador Spock: "There's an old Vulcan proverb, that only Nixon could go to China, and only Trump could screw up North Korea."

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“Do you believe we can trust you rabble with a Republic?"

#43 DCoronata

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Posted 31 May 2018 - 12:34 PM

Mainsuck media.

https://www.upi.com/.../8821527773367/

"The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said spending increased $79.8 billion while personal income increased $49.5 billion. The increase in personal income in April primarily reflected increases in wages and salaries, the bureau said."
1) Spending increased by 79.8 billion, wages increased by 31 billion, salaries include benefits which the worker does not get in his or her paycheck.
2) Americans recieved 7.1 billion more in interest payments, presumably from OTHER AMERICANS. This counts as income, but remember this also counts as expenditures.
3) Americans also received 6.5 billion more in institutional interest income. A nice up, but remember that's ~20% of wage increases, which clearly aren't going up at any significant rate.
4) Personal savings fell a whopping 26.1 billion dollars, that's almost as much as the increase in wages.
Ambassador Spock: "There's an old Vulcan proverb, that only Nixon could go to China, and only Trump could screw up North Korea."

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“Do you believe we can trust you rabble with a Republic?"

#44 DCoronata

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Posted 01 June 2018 - 07:59 AM

New figures out.
Increase in CPS 182K, increase in NILF 170K, nice drop in # of people unemployed (-281K). Retirements, retirements, retirements...
19.83% of the total Civil pop are over 65, 51+ million seniors.
U6 7.3%, this is a good number.

Lots of seasonal construction workers coming back to the workforce, May is a good month for that typically.
Most of the gains are in the service sector, big seasonal gains in warehousing, and trucking. Statistical up in professional services but the numbers are actually down (not seasonally adjusted) I'm guessing end of tax prep. Health care again a big source of new jobs, one of these days everyone will work in the health care industry while the rest will be recipients...
Hours flat (34.5) slight up in wages, $928.74 from $925.98. YTY change is almost 3% on the nose, but inflation is
Big difference in rates for non-supervisory workers, $763.54 from $761.18, and YTY 3.39%... I guess those increases in minimum wages didn't have a bad effect on workers, either #s or $s. Retail trade up YTY is $484.27, was $459.33 up 5.43%.

Seriously folks, retail trade workers average salaries up 5.43% YTY, #s of workers from 15,769K to 15,899.5K. So more jobs, way higher salaries.

Overall a nice report, very good to see the lower end of the wage spectrum is getting some of the best gains.
Ambassador Spock: "There's an old Vulcan proverb, that only Nixon could go to China, and only Trump could screw up North Korea."

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“Do you believe we can trust you rabble with a Republic?"

#45 LFC

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Posted 01 June 2018 - 03:13 PM

It's really just to the point of "of course he did."

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Business journalists and former administration officials are sounding the alarm after President Donald Trump tweeted hinting the monthly jobs report would be positive an hour before its release.

Just before 7:30 a.m. ET, Trump tweeted that he was “looking forward to seeing the employment numbers” when the report was released at 8:30 a.m. ET, a move that reporters, like Business Insider’s Pedro da Costa, are claiming has already influenced markets.

Quote

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Looking forward to seeing the employment numbers at 8:30 this morning.

Quote

Pedro da Costa
@pdacosta
Markets are moving on Trump’s illegal tweet preview of April jobs report.

Experts and former officials have said that at best, Trump broke with expected precedent and at worst, he appeared to violate federal rules barring officials from commenting on data before its release.

Quote

Peter Alexander
@PeterAlexander
Another norm-breaking tweet: Trump sending a signal to the markets about the jobs numbers an hour before they are made public.


Suckabee says its no problem. So does Republican pump monkey Larry Kudlow.

Meanwhile others cite actual rules governing this.

Quote

Economic experts are taking to Twitter to warn that President Donald Trump’s early jobs report tweet is an egregious breach that may well warrant an investigation.

They think that Trump is in violation of a 1985 OMB directive, which forbids employees of the Executive Branch from telling anyone about the numbers until an hour after their public release. Trump sent out his tweet at 7:21 AM on Friday; the jobs report was released at 8:30 AM.

A former member of the President’s council of economic advisers under President Obama pointed out the possibility of leaked information sparking insider trading, and said that any leaks should be investigated.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#46 Traveler

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Posted 01 June 2018 - 03:39 PM

One comment on TPM was in this vein. So what happens next if the Dump doesnt tweet ahead of time? Sell? Short? What a clusterfuck.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#47 JackD

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Posted 01 June 2018 - 03:51 PM

It isn't illegal if the President does it.

#48 LFC

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Posted 01 June 2018 - 03:53 PM

View PostJackD, on 01 June 2018 - 03:51 PM, said:

It isn't illegal if the Republican President does it.

FTFY
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#49 DCoronata

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Posted 04 June 2018 - 05:18 AM

Insanity is the new normal.
Ambassador Spock: "There's an old Vulcan proverb, that only Nixon could go to China, and only Trump could screw up North Korea."

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“Do you believe we can trust you rabble with a Republic?"

#50 DCoronata

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Posted 04 June 2018 - 05:18 AM

View PostTraveler, on 01 June 2018 - 03:39 PM, said:

One comment on TPM was in this vein. So what happens next if the Dump doesnt tweet ahead of time? Sell? Short? What a clusterfuck.
Fuck, we've just been given a tell in a multi-trillion dollar game of poker.

The minute the president shuts his hole, SELL.
Ambassador Spock: "There's an old Vulcan proverb, that only Nixon could go to China, and only Trump could screw up North Korea."

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“Do you believe we can trust you rabble with a Republic?"

#51 DCoronata

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Posted 08 June 2018 - 11:34 AM

No major data today but some interesting info.
Two Federal Reserve banks, NY and ATL, each have running predictions of what they think GDP will be. I've got to search if there's a site that shows their track record, but this reminds me of an old Dire Straits song, "Industrial Disease".
"Two men say their Jesus, one of them must be wrong."
https://www.frbatlan...rch/gdpnow.aspx
Atlanta prediction, 4.6% growth. Let me mention that their data is a few days old, and they claim inventory growth will account for 1.06% but in the last three hours inventory measures for April and May showed +0.2% revised down for Apr, 0.1% first revision for May so yeah, those numbers are donkey balls.
https://www.newyorkf.../policy/nowcast
NY says 3.08%.

These are the best forecasters in the business (one would hope...) and their discrepancy is rather large.
So I looked for another- WSJ.
http://projects.wsj....t/#ind=gdp&r=20
WSJ claims 3.6%, but their website says Q1 was 2.3% and that was revised down to 2.2%. Are you for real? You're supposed to be the most important news source for economics, YOU'VE GOT WALL STREET IN YOUR TITLE and you make a stupid mistake like that?

So, bottom line, don't trust any of these guys until it gets so close that the official report is minutes away, and even then the official report generally varies by a half percent from the final data. And yeah, things aren't as pretty as we were promised by Trump and co. Where's my five percent GDP and a balanced budget?
Ambassador Spock: "There's an old Vulcan proverb, that only Nixon could go to China, and only Trump could screw up North Korea."

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“Do you believe we can trust you rabble with a Republic?"

#52 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 08 June 2018 - 02:07 PM

View PostDCoronata, on 08 June 2018 - 11:34 AM, said:

So, bottom line, don't trust any of these guys until it gets so close that the official report is minutes away, and even then the official report generally varies by a half percent from the final data.

By the time the official report is minutes away, one of two things will have happened:
  • POTUS will have pre-announced the good news, or
  • POTUS will have uncharacteristically held silent, in which case it's a safe bet the results are discouraging.
Alternately, watch the early trades starting 30-60 minutes before the announcement. They'll be heavy on sell orders if the announcement is going to be bad and long on buy orders if it's going to be good. The White House leaks like a Pastafarian's rain hat.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#53 DCoronata

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Posted 08 June 2018 - 02:16 PM

View PostD. C. Sessions, on 08 June 2018 - 02:07 PM, said:

By the time the official report is minutes away, one of two things will have happened:
  • POTUS will have pre-announced the good news, or
  • POTUS will have uncharacteristically held silent, in which case it's a safe bet the results are discouraging.
Alternately, watch the early trades starting 30-60 minutes before the announcement. They'll be heavy on sell orders if the announcement is going to be bad and long on buy orders if it's going to be good. The White House leaks like a Pastafarian's rain hat.
That's why they used to hide the report, embargoing it from POTUS because they knew he would release hints.Kudlow on the other hand, is the stupidest human to ever claim to be an economist, and therefore has no clue what damage he might create.

Meanwhile, still waiting for a balanced budget from the reps, along with 5% GDP growth and affordable health care for all.
Ambassador Spock: "There's an old Vulcan proverb, that only Nixon could go to China, and only Trump could screw up North Korea."

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“Do you believe we can trust you rabble with a Republic?"

#54 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 08 June 2018 - 07:40 PM

View PostDCoronata, on 08 June 2018 - 02:16 PM, said:

That's why they used to hide the report, embargoing it from POTUS because they knew he would release hints.Kudlow on the other hand, is the stupidest human to ever claim to be an economist, and therefore has no clue what damage he might create.

I wouldn't be particularly shocked if at some point Kudlow got some unbelievably good news in a draft which was revised shortly before the official announcement time to be kind of meh-to-poor.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#55 LFC

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Posted 11 June 2018 - 09:44 AM

View PostDCoronata, on 08 June 2018 - 02:16 PM, said:

That's why they used to hide the report, embargoing it from POTUS because they knew he would release hints.Kudlow on the other hand, is the stupidest human to ever claim to be an economist, and therefore has no clue what damage he might create.

He's just a hyperpartisan creature who sees economic data one way when there's a Republican in the White House and in a completely different way when a Democrat is in. He knows that he can't make any money as a real economist with his track record so he's the Faux News equivalent of an economist. He'll interpret anything however he has to in order to keep the wingnut welfare flowing.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#56 DCoronata

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Posted 11 June 2018 - 11:09 AM

View PostD. C. Sessions, on 08 June 2018 - 07:40 PM, said:

I wouldn't be particularly shocked if at some point Kudlow got some unbelievably good news in a draft which was revised shortly before the official announcement time to be kind of meh-to-poor.

Okay, I've been doing deep-depth analysis of about 100 of these reports and this one is somewhere in the 40th percentile range. 38 out of the last 100 reports had better non-farm payroll gains and if you want to limit this to just post-recessionary reports (job's recession, that is) out of 92 reports, this is the 38th best. That's hardly "great news" but I guess if you're a Republican, slightly above average is brilliant.
Ambassador Spock: "There's an old Vulcan proverb, that only Nixon could go to China, and only Trump could screw up North Korea."

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“Do you believe we can trust you rabble with a Republic?"

#57 LFC

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Posted 11 June 2018 - 12:37 PM

View PostDCoronata, on 11 June 2018 - 11:09 AM, said:

...but I guess if you're a Republican, slightly above average is brilliant.

I've felt that about the intelligence of the average Congressional Republican for a long time.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#58 DCoronata

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Posted 11 June 2018 - 01:42 PM

Just as an aside, one of these day's I've got to do a little write up on debt/FY vs. GDP growth/FY. I wrote a tiny bit of it in the comments to the NY Times website on "just how good is the economy?"
https://www.nytimes....pe=sectionfront

Using just NIPA tables 1.15 and 3.1, comparing the data for just the last 10/20 shows something simply horrifying- in the last 20 years only three years had a greater GDP growth than growth in national debt.
In cumulative growth, (not inflation adjusted) the difference in annual GDP, the "area under the curve" shows an increase of 21.254 trillion dollars in GDP from 2007 to now (total GDP over last decade, 166.03 trillion dollars, 2007 GDP 14.477 trillion) and a total increase of national debt, 11.794 trillion. In essence, the total change to our economy accumulated is 1.8X the size of the debt. This is not adjusted for population increase, this is not adjusted for inflation. The vast majority of our economic growth in the last decade comes from government borrowing.

The data was to say the least, absolutely shocking to me and I need to go deeper and go into more analysys for more than just the last 10 or 20 years, but suffice it to say that an amazing amount of GDP growth over the last ten years is just window dressing, that recession and the ensuing recovery has been just terrible. And yet, during that time, corporate profits and cash on hand have risen by obscene levels.
Ambassador Spock: "There's an old Vulcan proverb, that only Nixon could go to China, and only Trump could screw up North Korea."

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“Do you believe we can trust you rabble with a Republic?"

#59 DCoronata

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 08:44 AM

Inflation data in, CPI (consumer price index) up 0.2% for the month, 2.8% for the year.
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
https://www.bls.gov/.../empsit.t19.htm
And hourly wages for the last 12 months, up 3.0% so for all practical purposes, no wage gains for the average person.
Thanks, Trump.
Ambassador Spock: "There's an old Vulcan proverb, that only Nixon could go to China, and only Trump could screw up North Korea."

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“Do you believe we can trust you rabble with a Republic?"

#60 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 09:18 AM

Assuming that the inflation numbers are good (big if) it's possibly a bit of searoom for the next recession. September?
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO





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