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Economics: Today's Jobs Report

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#241 LFC

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Posted 03 June 2019 - 10:41 AM

I'd ask if this was a joke but I know it isn't. The incompetent but loyal are ever lauded by Trump and the Republicans. In full:

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President Donald Trump announced Friday that he would give a Presidential Medal of Freedom to the “trickle down” economics evangelist and co-author of “Trumponomics,” Arthur Laffer.

“Arthur B. Laffer, the ‘Father of Supply-Side Economics,’ is one of the most influential economists in American history,” read a press release from the White House Friday afternoon. “He is renowned for his economic theory, the ‘Laffer Curve,’ which establishes the strong incentive effects of lower tax rates that spur investment, production, jobs, wages, economic growth, and tax compliance.”

The medal will be awarded on June 19, the White House said.

Laffer is perhaps best known for advancing the belief that cutting taxes on the wealthy and corporations, which Donald Trump and congressional Republicans did to a significant extent in late 2017, will increase tax revenue and benefit the economy overall.

Trump’s timing is notable: A nonpartisan analysis from the Congressional Research Service released last week found that, far from the Republicans’ tax cuts “paying for themselves,” as was widely asserted as a talking point during the 2017 debate over the tax cut legislation, the cuts did not have their advertised effect.

The Los Angeles Times summarized: “The CRS finds that the cuts have had virtually no effect on wages, haven’t contributed to a surge in investment, and haven’t come close to paying for themselves. Nor have they delivered a cut to the average taxpayer.”

“Arthur B. Laffer, the ‘Father of Supply-Side Economics,’ is one of the most influential economists in American history,” read a press release from the White House Friday afternoon. “He is renowned for his economic theory, the ‘Laffer Curve,’ which establishes the strong incentive effects of lower tax rates that spur investment, production, jobs, wages, economic growth, and tax compliance.”

The medal will be awarded on June 19, the White House said.

Laffer is perhaps best known for advancing the belief that cutting taxes on the wealthy and corporations, which Donald Trump and congressional Republicans did to a significant extent in late 2017, will increase tax revenue and benefit the economy overall.

Trump’s timing is notable: A nonpartisan analysis from the Congressional Research Service released last week found that, far from the Republicans’ tax cuts “paying for themselves,” as was widely asserted as a talking point during the 2017 debate over the tax cut legislation, the cuts did not have their advertised effect.

The Los Angeles Times summarized: “The CRS finds that the cuts have had virtually no effect on wages, haven’t contributed to a surge in investment, and haven’t come close to paying for themselves. Nor have they delivered a cut to the average taxpayer.”

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FOX Business
@FoxBusiness
"If you cut that tax rate to 15%, it will pay for itself many times over... this will bring in probably $1.5T net by itself." —Art Laffer


Laffer, along with right-wing pundit Stephen Moore, who was briefly considered for a Federal Reserve Board nomination, together wrote “Trumponomics: Inside the America First Plan to Revive Our Economy.”

It’s hardly the first time Trump has used the powers of his office to boost an ally: In May, he issued a pardon for his friend, former business associate and author of “Donald J. Trump: A President Like No Other,” the billionaire Conrad Black.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#242 golden_valley

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Posted 03 June 2019 - 12:01 PM

View PostLFC, on 03 June 2019 - 10:41 AM, said:

I'd ask if this was a joke but I know it isn't. The incompetent but loyal are ever lauded by Trump and the Republicans. In full:

I hope the Medal of Freedom is never used after Trump is gone. I suspect any nominees for it would turn down the honor of being in the company of Laffer and probably other Trump nominees in the future.

#243 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 03 June 2019 - 12:32 PM

Next person in position to do so cancels it with the regretful declaration that what was once the highest honor bestowed on an American civilian has been debased into a prize reward for campaign donations.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
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#244 LFC

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Posted 07 June 2019 - 10:48 AM

This past month jobs report looks pretty ugly and last month was revised downwards. Trump's unthought out trade wars may be to blame.

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U.S. employers added the fewest workers in three months and wage gains cooled, suggesting broader economic weakness and boosting expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut as President Donald Trump’s trade policies weigh on growth.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 75,000 in May after a downwardly revised 224,000 advance the prior month, according to a Labor Department report Friday. The increase missed all estimates in Bloomberg’s survey calling for 175,000. The jobless rate held at a 49-year low of 3.6% while average hourly earnings climbed 3.1% from a year earlier, less than projected.

Posted Image

The dollar and Treasury yields fell as the data signaled the labor market -- a pillar of strength for an economy headed for a record expansion -- was facing new pressures even before Trump threatened tariffs on Mexican goods in addition to proposed higher levies on Chinese imports. Retail sales, factory output and home purchases have shown the economy struggling this quarter after better-than-expected growth in the first three months of the year.

“It definitely looks like we’ve downshifted in the pace of job growth,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist for JPMorgan Chase & Co. “Overall it’s a disheartening report particularly since you may have some trade effects there, but a lot of the trade tensions escalated” since the reference period for the Labor Department’s surveys in the middle of the month, he said.

Stocks jumped as traders focused on the interest-rate implications of the report. Fed funds futures showed a quarter-point cut almost fully priced in for July.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#245 LFC

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Posted 31 July 2019 - 03:07 PM

Despite what is supposed to be the greatest economy ever the Fed rate was just cut for the first time since 2008. Trump, of course, wanted a wildly irresponsible cut to pump things up to his ever greater glory.

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The Federal Reserve on Wednesday reduced interest rates for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, Bloomberg reports. Central bankers voted to decrease the interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point in response to slowing global growth. In a statement, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the decision was made in light of “implications of global developments for the economic outlook,” along with “muted inflation pressures.” Powell also noted that “uncertainties” in the economic outlook remain. This comes after President Trump told reporters on Tuesday that he “would like to see a large cut” in the interest rate. “I would like to see immediately the quantitative tightening stop,” he said. “I’m just very disappointed in the Fed.”

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#246 LFC

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Posted 14 August 2019 - 04:14 PM

Bond yield inversion, it's a thing.

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As Bloomberg reports, the yield on the ten-year U.S. Treasury bond has dropped below the yield of the two-year U.S. Treasury bond for the first time since 2007, which many market observers say is a leading indicator of a coming recession.

Yields on ten-year bonds are usually higher than yields on two-year bonds because there is greater risk involved in investing in a long-term bond, which means investors in those bonds demand higher payouts than investors in short-term bonds.

But when the so-called yield curve inverts — that is, when ten-year bonds actually pay less than two-year bonds — it is seen as a sign that investors believe there are significant risks to the economy and are flooding their cash into safe harbors.

As for what this means for the U.S. economy as a whole, Bloomberg analyst Joe Wiesenthal writes “the last three times this happened, U.S. recessions soon followed.”


Trumpies are angry at Faux News for having the liberalism to report the truth.

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Needless to say, this news did not sit well with the Trump fans in Fox Business’s comments section.

“This is just ignorant fear mongering.This inverted yield curve DOES NOT have a perfect record in calling a recession,” wrote one user. “Although each recession has been preceded by an inverted curve, sometimes preceded by 2 years, not every yield curve inversion has been followed by a recession.”

Another user, who goes by the name of “Kenndog,” accused Fox Business of “cherry picking” numbers — and then acknowledged that a recession could come anyway.

“The truth is that recessions come and go as a natural part of the economic cycle. Right now, we’re in a sweet spot that could last a generation,” the user wrote. “Or not.”

Other Trump fans, meanwhile, remained in total denial and argued a recession in 2020 would only help Trump win.

“And this boys and girls is why we have President Trump,” one user wrote. “His anti-globalist methods are good for OUR country. Let the other countries get their own nationalist leader. Trump 2020….And Beyond!!!!!!”

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#247 LFC

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Posted 15 August 2019 - 01:40 PM

I love the smell of fear and panic in Trump's White House. Here we have a Moody's analyst talking about Trump's trade war debacle.

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Although President Trump continues to tout a strong economy, analysts have concerns that his trade wars with China might cause a major recession.

On CNN Thursday, Moody’s analyst Mark Zandi explained that with each passing day, Trump risks having the economy slump into a recession he won’t be able to fix.

“Yeah, sure, the president could tweet that he had a call with president Xi of China and they came to some kind of arrangement and they’re going to wind down the trade war,” he said. “I don’t think it will be a substantive agreement, nothing that will change the grievances that we have with China but it will be a face-saving arrangement and I think that will be enough to quell the uncertainty and keep the economy moving forward,” he added.

“But having said that, to your metaphor, I think with each passing day that the president doesn’t send out that tweet, the more likely he’s not going to be able to turn this thing around and the recession will take on its own dynamic and no matter what he does, he won’t be able to turn it around.”


Krugman smacks Trump around for his whining about wanting lower and lower rates but not taking advantage of them to repair our nation's infrastructure.

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Economist Paul Krugman argued Wednesday that, while the world doesn’t appear to be facing a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis, the risk of a recession is indeed rising. And despite his boasts about his economic performance, Trump himself appears to be driving at least one major factor in the increased risk, while the GOP blocks potentially countervailing measures.

“These low, low rates are telling us several things: (a) private investment demand is really weak despite tax cuts ( B) recession risks are pretty high © infrastructure! I mean, with borrowing virtually free, why not fix all those falling-down bridges?” Krugman wrote in a tweet.

In other words, Krugman was pointing out that given the frantic desire for low-risk bonds, the federal government could be borrowing more money to invest in infrastructure at essentially no cost. During the 2016 campaign, Trump even suggested he would take advantage of such an opportunity, promising a major infrastructure package. But that never happened.

“[Senate Majority Leader] Mitch McConnell and his wing of the party oppose any kind of government program, no matter how much good it might do — actually especially oppose programs that might work, and make people think better of government,” he said. “Another is that Trump and co just can’t bring themselves to advocate anything that doesn’t include scams on behalf of their cronies; so their vague suggestions for infrastructure always look more like stealth privatization than public investment.”

He added: “So we’re left, as I said, with markets basically begging the government to do some investment, but this plea falling on deaf ears.”


Trump is floundering and clearly hasn't a clue what to do so he takes his usual course of action and blames "the media." After all he has economic luminaries like Kudlow, Laffer, and Moore to advise him so what could go wrong?

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“The Fake News Media is doing everything they can to crash the economy because they think that will be bad for me and my re-election. The problem they have is that the economy is way too strong and we will soon be winning big on Trade, and everyone knows that, including China!” Trump tweeted as the markets appeared more like a roller coaster than a booming economy.

Trump spent the better part of his first two years in office bragging that the market’s success was all because of him.

Some of the responses to his Twitter tantrum were brutal.

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Dean Baker:

just "millions" of jobs being lost in China because of your tariffs? Why not trillions of jobs? As long as you're making stuff up, why not be dramatic about it

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Morris Dalla Costa:

Now it’s the media’s fault your economy is tanking? @realDonaldTrump followers must be the most moronic individuals ever.

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Tony Posnanski:

I crunched the numbers and I don’t think it is CNN, MSNBC, or The New York Times fault the economy is predicted to crash.

Based on my calculations it’s because you are a dumbfuck who has never been successful at anything.

Thanks!

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Phillip Kelly:

Do you know how news even works?!

You fucking idiot

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Paul Krugman:

Funny thought: I wonder if Trump wishes he had reappointed Janet Yellen to the Fed (a reappointment she richly deserved — but he didn't think she was tall enough). She might have been more dovish; but even if not, she would be much easier to demonize as an Obama holdover.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#248 LFC

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Posted 15 August 2019 - 01:46 PM

More federal government uncollected revenue due to IRS budget cuts. This long standing Republican policy has been a continual drain on government resources as less and less tax owed is being collected. It's "almost" as if the Republicans didn't WANT us to collect taxes ... well, from certain people and companies.

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Internal Revenue Service budget cuts enacted by President Donald Trump’s administration are responsible for the loss of tens of billions of dollars in revenue, according to a new report.

A study from Indiana University Kelley School of Business found that the IRS could have collected an additional $34.3 billion or more from the country’s largest companies.

USA Today noted that the figure represents “nearly 20% of the estimated gap between what corporations paid in taxes and what they owed from 2002 through 2014.”

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#249 LFC

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Posted 15 August 2019 - 01:51 PM

Barry Ritholz wrote this piece for Bloomberg:

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The #TrumpRecession Label Is Going to Stick
Presidents usually get too much blame for economic slowdowns. This time is different.

It's effing brutal and oh so spot on. He tears into Trump's unforced errors including his economic picks for his administration. We've discussed Peter Navarro before, an idiot who spews all kinds of insane stuff about China and was the architect pinhead who came up with Trump's China trade policies. But Trump's choice to lead the Fed is really amusing because if Trump had even a clue of the man's position on interest rates he never would have picked him. I'm not saying he's wrong, just that he's at complete odds with Trump but Trump was too dumb to grasp that.

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Jerome Powell, an inflation hawk who Trump appointed as Federal Reserve chair. Unless you prefer high rates, this was an almost unaccountably foolish choice. Trump fired Janet Yellen as Fed chair, reportedly because he thought she was too short for the job, and after disparaging her management of monetary policy, saying she "should be ashamed of herself." The irony is that Yellen was an inflation dove, who favored lower rates for longer as the economy was still recovering when Trump took office. That irony no doubt is lost on Trump as he rails against Powell and the higher rates he adopted -- something Trump called for when Barack Obama was president and fighting the worst recession in three-quarters of a century.


Read it all but here's the finish.

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To be sure, we can't place all of the blame on Trump for the economic slowdowns in Europe and China, for the chaos of Brexit and other issues that predate his term in office. Much of the unsettled environment was already in place. He was just the spark in the gas-filled room.

My original thesis in 2016 was that investors who were blaming Trump for market volatility were being partisan and unobjective. To damage this stock market, Trump would have had to do a series of things that were ill-advised and counterproductive. As it turns, he has done just that. If a recession occurs in 2020 -- and the current model of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York puts it at a 32% chance in the next 12 months -- a good measure of the blame must go to this president.

Trump reveled in taking credit for the boom he inherited. If the U.S. goes into a contraction, he shouldn't be surprised if the "Trump recession" label sticks.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer





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