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Economics: Today's Jobs Report

Economics jobs politics

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#201 LFC

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Posted 07 December 2018 - 04:41 PM

It's been an ugly week for the stock market.

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Worries about the US-China trade war unleashed another round of heavy selling on Friday, capping off a brutal week on Wall Street.

The Dow fell 559 points, or 2.2%, on Friday as investors were left confused by conflicting messages coming out of the White House on the trade negotiations with China. The index was down as much as 663 points at one point.

The Nasdaq closed with a loss of 3.1%, while the S&P 500 retreated 2.3%.

For the week, the Dow plunged 1,150 points, or 4.5%. It was the index's worst week since March.

Stocks had been trading higher earlier Friday, but the market turned sharply lower after Trump administration officials seemed to contradict each other on trade.

While White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow sounded an optimistic note about China talks on CNBC, trade adviser Peter Navarro was simultaneously warning on CNN of higher tariffs if issues aren't resolved during a 90-day negotiating period.

"We've gotten a hodge-podge of mixed messages from people in the same administration," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR. "We're not sure who we're supposed to listen to."

Worries about the negative consequences of the trade war and hopes for progress have launched Wall Street on a wild ride of late. The US-China ceasefire sent stocks soaring on Monday. But doubts about the truce helped knock the Dow nearly 800 points into the red on Tuesday. And then the Dow plunged 785 points on Thursday before staging a huge comeback.

"It doesn't feel like much of a ceasefire," said Ed Yardeni, president of investment advisory Yardeni Research.

Investors also received a softer jobs report on Friday. The Labor Department said the United States added 155,000 jobs in November, missing expectations for a gain of 200,000. But the labor news did not trigger a selloff and some traders likely figured the slowdown in hiring will reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#202 LFC

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Posted 15 December 2018 - 02:17 PM

The Dow closed at 24,000. It opened the year at 24,824.

The S&P closed at 2,600. It opened the year at 2,696.

So ... much ... winning.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#203 LFC

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Posted 21 December 2018 - 11:47 PM

View PostLFC, on 15 December 2018 - 02:17 PM, said:

The Dow closed at 24,000. It opened the year at 24,824.

The S&P closed at 2,600. It opened the year at 2,696.

So ... much ... winning.

UPDATE (Nasdaq added):
The Dow closed at 24,000 22,445. It opened the year at 24,824.

The S&P closed at 2,600 2,417. It opened the year at 2,696.

The Nasdaq closed at 6,911 6,333. It opened the year at 7,007.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#204 LFC

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Posted 24 December 2018 - 03:48 PM

View PostLFC, on 21 December 2018 - 11:47 PM, said:

UPDATE (Nasdaq added):
The Dow closed at 24,000 22,445. It opened the year at 24,824.

The S&P closed at 2,600 2,417. It opened the year at 2,696.

The Nasdaq closed at 6,911 6,333. It opened the year at 7,007.


XMAS EVE UPDATE: (after markets were open for just a half day)
The Dow closed down 653.17 (2.91%) at 24,000 21,792. It opened the year at 24,824. Down 12.2% for the year.

The S&P closed down 65.52 (2.71%) at 2,600 2,351. It opened the year at 2,696. Down 12.8% for the year.

The Nasdaq closed down 335.49 (5.14%) at 6,911 6,193. It opened the year at 7,007. Down 11.6% for the year.


Merry Christmas!
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#205 LFC

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Posted 04 January 2019 - 02:33 PM

It's the Democrats' fault. Gee, who didn't see this coming.

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resident Donald Trump, who has taken credit for stock market gains, on Friday blamed the December bear market on the Democrats’ winning control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the November elections.

Trump also tried to soothe investor worries, saying markets would soon calm.

Fears of a global economic slowdown have roiled global financial markets in recent months amid ongoing concerns over the U.S-China trade war, tariffs and other economic concerns.

The major U.S. stock indexes posted their worst yearly performance in a decade in 2018 as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 marked their poorest December since 1931.

Since taking office in January 2017, Trump has repeatedly taken credit for stock market gains, frequently tweeting self-congratulatory remarks on Twitter. The S&P 500 and Dow reached record highs last fall.

Amid market concerns in recent months, Trump blamed Democrats after they won control of the House in November’s election though they didn’t take control until Jan. 3. He has also criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who he tapped to lead the U.S. central bank.

“As I have stated many times, if the Democrats take over the House or Senate, there will be disruption to the Financial Markets. We won the Senate, they won the House. Things will settle down,” Trump wrote in an early-morning post on Twitter on Friday.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#206 Traveler

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 08:59 AM

Well, its not all bad news.

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After two years of workers seeing modestly bigger paychecks, it looks like we are now in that part of the business cycle when steady and large gains show up. More evidence for this could be found in the jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. Workers had an average gain in hourly wages of 3.2 percent in December, well above the average of 2.4 percent during the past five years, as the chart below shows. More gains probably are on the way.

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#207 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 10:07 AM

View PostTraveler, on 08 January 2019 - 08:59 AM, said:

Workers had an average gain in hourly wages of 3.2 percent in December, well above the average of 2.4 percent during the past five years, as the chart below shows. More gains probably are on the way.

That's nominal income -- the real-money income increase is less than stellar.

Put another way, the Administration is bragging about an uptick in inflation.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
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#208 Traveler

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 10:10 AM

To be sure, but the rise seems to exceed inflation rate the past two years. Haven't run the numbers though.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
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#209 George Rowell

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 10:24 AM

View PostD. C. Sessions, on 08 January 2019 - 10:07 AM, said:

That's nominal income -- the real-money income increase is less than stellar.

Put another way, the Administration is bragging about an uptick in inflation.

Inflation rate was 2.44% for 2018 so we have a whopping 0.8% real increase. That will be dwarfed by any changes in health care or taxation.

http://www.in2013dol...on-rate-in-2018
A doctor knows a little about a lot. A specialist knows a lot about a little. In time the doctor knows less and less about more and more and the specialist knows more and more about less and less until ultimately the doctor knows nothing about everything and the specialist knows everything about nothing.

#210 LFC

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Posted 27 January 2019 - 11:44 AM

An interesting take on a slowing global economy and proposed solution. The author misses the impact of a strong middle class on consumption and puts nearly all of his eggs in the government policy basket, a position that I find indefensible, but I'd like to hear others comment on it.

Quote

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for global GDP growth in 2019. The three big drivers of the world economy — the United States, China, and Europe — are all showing signs of weakness. If they fall, observers fear, global GDP falls with them.

The thing is, repairing the world's economic engine will require doing something that might seem totally counterintuitive: National surpluses — in both fiscal budgets and trade flows — are going to need to turn into deficits for key countries.

Recent headlines have focused on distinct crises as the big threats to global growth: Think of President Trump's trade war or Brexit. These ongoing events certainly aren't helping, but they're also just flesh wounds masking a deeper injury. "The world does not look like an otherwise healthy economy hit by an idiosyncratic shock," the editors of the Financial Times recently wrote. "Rather it looks like an economy deficient in demand."

That's the thing about the nations running both budget surpluses and trade surpluses — the "twin surplus countries" as the Council of Foreign Relations' Brad Setser calls them. Running a budget surplus literally means you're reducing demand in your economy — taxing more than you're spending. Meanwhile, running a trade surplus means you're producing more than you're consuming — and relying on demand from other countries to make up the difference. Combine the two, and the "twin surplus" countries aren't just sucking demand out of their own economies, they're sucking demand out of the rest of the world as well.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#211 LFC

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 06:15 PM

Despite laying on massive new debt on America with the Trump/Republican Tax Cut there are few signs that it has done much of anything other than stuff the pockets of the already rich.

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Donald Trump’s tax cut for the rich and the corporations they control is turning out to be a bust for the American economy.

It will burden taxpayers with at least $1.5 trillion more federal debt because, instead of boosting tax revenues through increased economic activity as promised; it has caused a sharp drop in revenue.

In addition, millions of residents of blue states are about to get hit with big federal income tax increases while many American expatriates who own businesses overseas are also facing unexpected new tax bills, especially if they prudently saved for old age under the systems of the countries where they now reside.

A host of economic indicators shows the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act failed to achieve its key promise, a major increase in investments by business that would create more jobs. This is exactly the result that many, including those of us at DCReport, predicted.

The economy is slowing down despite the promise that the Trump-Radical Republican tax cut would spur massive new investment.

We call the 2017 tax law the Trump-Radical Republican tax law because not one Democrat voted for the bill in the House or Senate. It was also passed without a single public hearing. It is a terrible law that benefits the richest among us at the expense of the many—and it needs to be fixed.

The Trump-Radical Republican tax law not only cut the corporate tax rate from 35% of profits to 21%. It also allowed corporations to immediately deduct 100% of capital expenditures instead of writing them off on their tax returns over periods from three years to decades.

This kind of corporate tax timing trick has been employed several times since the John F. Kennedy administration in 1962. The effect each time was to create a brief surge in corporate investment, called capital expenditures, followed by a slump.

Looked at over a period of several years, total capital investment was unchanged.

The evidence today shows the economy is slowing down after expanding since early in former President Barack Obama’s first term despite the promise that the Trump-Radical Republican tax cut would spur massive new investment.

The National Association for Business Economics found this month that the Trump-Radical Republican tax law has failed to increase business investment and activity.

NABE president, Kevin Swift, who is chief economist for then American Chemistry Council, said that 84% of business economists it surveyed agreed that “one year after its passage the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act has not caused their firms to change hiring or investment plans.”

There’s no reason to expect an increase going forward. Rather, economic growth appears to be slowing.

The rest of the piece goes into the indicators that are pointing towards a slowdown.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#212 pnwguy

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 06:39 PM

View PostLFC, on 12 February 2019 - 06:15 PM, said:

...other than stuff the pockets of the already rich.
Does government have ANY other function, in modern GOP philosophy? Well, I guess there is waging war, but that's often in pursuit of the same principle.

OK, a case could be made for subduing non-white people. I shouldn't be so simplistic with my accusations :P
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#213 LFC

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 05:39 PM

Predictable. Predicted. Thanks Trump. Thanks Republicans

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Major U.S. banks shaved about $21 billion from their tax bills last year -- almost double the IRS’s annual budget -- as the industry benefited more than many others from the Republican tax overhaul.

By year-end, most of the nation’s largest lenders met or exceeded their initial predictions for tax savings. On average, the banks saw their effective tax rates fall below 19 percent from the roughly 28 percent they paid in 2016. And while the breaks set off a gusher of payouts to shareholders, firms cut thousands of jobs and saw their lending growth slow.

Quote

While banks vowed to use a portion of their savings to reward employees, help needy communities and support small businesses, the magnitude of their break and how the money was divvied is likely to fuel debate over whether the law was an effective way to stoke the economy. The 23 firms boosted dividends and stock buybacks 23 percent, and they eliminated almost 4,300 jobs. A few have signaled plans to cut thousands more.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#214 LFC

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 05:09 PM

That's not a good indicator.

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U.S. retail sales recorded their biggest drop in more than nine years in December as receipts fell across the board, suggesting a sharp slowdown in economic activity at the end of 2018.

The economy’s outlook was further dimmed by other data on Thursday showing an unexpected increase in the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits last week. That pushed the four-week moving average of claims to a one-year high, an indication that job growth was moderating.

There was also little sign of inflation in the economy, with producer prices dropping in January for a second straight month. Moderate inflation and softening domestic demand support the Federal Reserve’s pledge to be “patient” before raising interest rates further this year.

“This suggests that the word ‘patience’ will be in the Fed’s vernacular for some time,” said Jennifer Lee, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.

The Commerce Department said retail sales tumbled 1.2 percent, the largest decline since September 2009 when the economy was emerging from recession. Data for November was revised slightly down to show retail sales edging up 0.1 percent instead of gaining 0.2 percent as previously reported.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales increasing 0.2 percent in December. Retail sales in December rose 2.3 percent from a year ago.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#215 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 08:56 PM

You missed the number of auto loans more than 90 days in arrears being at record levels.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#216 indy

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 11:02 PM

Consumer debt (does NOT include mortgages and home equity loans) as percentage of household income has also reached a record high:

Posted Image

#217 indy

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Posted 17 February 2019 - 09:02 AM

Quote

Student-loan delinquencies surged last year, hitting consecutive records of $166.3 billion in the third quarter and $166.4 billion in the fourth.

Bloomberg calculated the dollar amounts from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s quarterly household-debt report, which includes only the total owed and the percentage delinquent at least 90 days or in default.

That percentage has remained around 11 percent since mid-2012, but the total increased to a record $1.46 trillion by December 2018, and unpaid student debt also rose to the highest ever.

Posted Image

https://www.bloomber...ion#gs.f4lDuNne

#218 LFC

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Posted 17 February 2019 - 07:55 PM

Republicans have a "solution" to that; direct debit from paychecks. Never mind the track record of the likes of Wells Fargo or Bank of America inappropriately screwing over consumers either for profit or out of pure incompetence. Let's just trust that loaners will get it right. (And so much for the civil court system for proper settlement of these issues. Gotta' give corporations more rights than peasants.)

Quote

Student loan borrowers would have their monthly bills automatically deducted from their paychecks if a Republican-backed proposal becomes law.

Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., chairman of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, laid out the details of the massive overhaul to the student loan system in a speech earlier this month. The changes could affect some 40 million people.

Average debt at graduation is currently around $30,000, up from $10,000 in the early 1990s. The country's outstanding student loan balance is projected to swell to $2 trillion by 2022.

Currently, borrowers are matched with companies that administer the federal student loan programs, and they have some 14 different ways to repay their education debt.

Under Alexander's proposal, there would be just two repayment routes: one in which borrowers' monthly bills are capped at 10 percent of their discretionary income and another that spreads their payments out over a decade. Employers would be responsible for taking the funds from their employees' paychecks and sending them to the government. (Of course, student loan borrowers currently can set up automatic payments with their lender. They also typically get a discount on their interest rate for doing so.)

"I think this proposal is likely to become law, after some tweaks," said Mark Kantrowitz, a student loan expert.

Lamar said his proposal would streamline the student loan system and protect borrowers. "It makes sure if there were no money earned, there would be no money owed and that would not reflect negatively on a borrower's credit," he said.


When a Republican says their proposal will help / protect the average person, HOLD ONTO YOUR WALLETS!
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#219 AnBr

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Posted 17 February 2019 - 10:11 PM

Next step debtor's prisons? On a more serious note, it seems that this would spur on an underground economy where wages could not be garnisheed. I cannot see that this would pass the house.
Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


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On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


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Second inaugural address January, 1937

#220 Traveler

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Posted 18 February 2019 - 07:42 AM

"It makes sure if there were no money earned, there would be no money owed and that would not reflect negatively on a borrower's credit,"
Huh?
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire





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