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Economics: Today's Jobs Report

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#301 Traveler

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Posted 13 March 2020 - 07:05 PM

View Postcmk, on 13 March 2020 - 03:43 PM, said:

This is going to be worse than 2008-9. You heard it here first.

The rally today was amusing. Trump declares state of emergency, wow, that's what the market was waiting for?
If you didn't cash out yet, best to do so now. That said, an important difference is that the P/E is much lower now. So while we mourn our million dead, the rebound should be much more rapid. Assuming that debt bomb don't go off and E craters.
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#302 Traveler

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Posted 13 March 2020 - 08:05 PM

You know, and this is a mean thought, the CFR profile does trend red, when you think of walmart people. I have no statistics, but while there are too many obese and otherwise weakened Dems, there are likely many more impaired MAGAts. Look at typical diet and exercise.

I am not hopeful for a slow peak. Might have been exposed already.
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#303 Bact PhD

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Posted 13 March 2020 - 08:29 PM

View PostTraveler, on 13 March 2020 - 08:05 PM, said:

I am not hopeful for a slow peak. Might have been exposed already.

My pessimism is growing.
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#304 LFC

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Posted 15 March 2020 - 11:04 AM

Trump to the rescue! Of oil companies, of course. You didn't actually think he'd want to help normal people did you?

Quote

Climate action groups and progressive critics expressed disappointment and outrage on Friday afternoon after President Donald Trump — despite a continued failure to offer far-reaching support to the U.S. public — moved to bolster the bottom lines of oil and gas companies by announcing a massive federal purchase for the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

"Based on the price of oil, I've also instructed the Secretary of Energy to purchase at a very good price large quantities of crude oil for storage in the U.S. strategic reserve," Trump announced during a White House press conference — surrounded by CEOs from major corporations, including Walmart, CVS, and Target — in which he also declared an official national emergency in order to combat the outbreak of the coronavirus.

​"We're going to fill it right up to the top," said of the SPR, but critics were quick to point out that move has everything to do with helping his wealthy friends and cronies in the fossil fuel industry, and nothing to do with helping average people now under threat from the spreading pandemic.

"Trump has once again put the interests of oil and gas executives ahead of the interests of people and communities," said Alex Doukas of Oil Change International. "With this move, Trump has rolled out a plan to prop up U.S. oil companies before he has even bothered to guarantee paid sick leave for US workers who are going to be on the frontlines of the coronavirus crisis for weeks to come."

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

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#305 cmk

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Posted 15 March 2020 - 11:12 AM

I actually think that's one of the few smart moves he's made recently.
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#306 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 15 March 2020 - 11:36 AM

Doing the smartthing for stupid reasons, doing the right thing for corrupt reasons -- stopped clocks.
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#307 LFC

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Posted 15 March 2020 - 11:48 AM

View Postcmk, on 15 March 2020 - 11:12 AM, said:

I actually think that's one of the few smart moves he's made recently.

I'd be interested to know why in light of the discussions we've had on the multiple failures to achieve profitability in the fracking industry. It sounds like we're bailing out a losing business model. Or just handing out money to the big boys who have made more than enough profit to weather the storm.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#308 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 15 March 2020 - 12:07 PM

He might be propping up the fossils, but he's also buying at a time when the price is unusually low and will very likely rise again soon. Stabilizing markets is not a bad thing, even ones that are doomed do less harm if they fade into the darkness rather than crash catastrophically.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#309 Rich T Bikkies

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Posted 15 March 2020 - 12:14 PM

View Postcmk, on 15 March 2020 - 11:12 AM, said:

I actually think that's one of the few smart moves he's made recently.

Please explain.
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#310 cmk

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Posted 15 March 2020 - 01:07 PM

DC covered it. :)
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"The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly, is to fill the world with fools." -- Herbert Spencer

"Atheism is a religion like abstinence is a sex position." -- Bill Maher


"Our new Government['s] foundations are laid, its cornerstone rests, upon the great truth that the negro is not equal to the white man; that slavery, subordination to the superior race, is his natural and moral condition." -- Alexander Stephens, Vice-President of the Confederacy

#311 LFC

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Posted 16 March 2020 - 11:22 AM

I just posted that crypto is down hard so clearly not being used as a hedge against volatility. Gold is down YTD and silver continues to take an ass kicking (a technical economic term). Bonds are getting beaten on as well and ETF bond funds are apparently getting battered on by liquidity issues.

In the meantime Goldman is NOT bullish.

Quote

t is going to be another bloodbath for stocks.

The coronavirus crisis has ramped up another level with large parts of Europe on lockdown and the U.S. looking set to follow suit. Health officials have recommended a ban on public gatherings of 50 or more people, while the U.S.’s top infectious diseases expert Dr. Anthony Fauci said a national lockdown wasn’t out of the question. The Federal Reserve slashed interest rates back to zero and launched a massive bond-buying program on Sunday in a bid to prop up the economy.

But U.S. stock futures hit limit down ahead of the open on Monday, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF tumbled SPY, -6.799% 9.6%, indicating the central bank’s dramatic intervention would do little to stop the rot.

In our call of the day, Goldman Sachs downgraded U.S. GDP forecasts and said a recession was on its way.

The investment bank’s economic research team, led by Jan Hatzius, said economic activity would “contract sharply” for the rest of March and April as consumers and businesses cut back on spending. They expected a recovery after April, though that was uncertainty, but said their new forecasts “probably” met the criteria for a recession.

They expected real GDP growth of 0% in the first quarter and a contraction of 5% in the second quarter. “This takes our 2020 GDP forecast down to +0.4%(from 1.2%). The uncertainty around all of these numbers is much greater than normal.”

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#312 LFC

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Posted 16 March 2020 - 03:29 PM

Protect Dear Leader at all costs! Idiot Peter Navarro also throws in a bit of righteous indignation for good measure. Oh, yeah. The Dow closed down nearly 13%, the S&P nearly 12%, and the Nasdaq over 12%. Ouch! Note my bold of Trump's bragging about Friday's numbers. Today? Not his fault.

Quote

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro did not react well when confronted by CNN anchor Poppy Harlow on Monday morning over sinking stock markets in the wake of a full-blown coronavirus pandemic, insisting that now wasn’t the time to talk about whether the president’s response to the crisis was causing markets to plummet.

Appearing on CNN just as the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened Monday morning with a 10 percent drop that caused trading to be temporarily halted—something that’s been happening more frequently lately—Navarro first attempted to sidestep questions on whether America was now in a recession.

After Navarro boasted about everything he and the White House coronavirus task force were doing to try to mitigate the spread of the virus amid mass cancellations and shutdowns, adding that he has the “full force of American business” working with the government, Harlow stopped him short.

“I hear you, Peter, but the Dow is off 2,200 points, the S&P is off 8 percent,” she exclaimed. “You’re a top economist at the White House. Are we headed into a recession? I appreciate the efforts you just outlined, but this is freaking people out, Peter!”

“Look, here’s what’s critical now, Poppy,” Navarro replied. “It’s the policy response, and we have to have four different vectors coming in all at once in a matter of days, not weeks.”

“But Peter, what can you do? The market’s off 2,000 points!” Harlow shot back.

The CNN anchor would go on to reiterate that the “market is not responding well at all” to the federal government’s recent actions to fight COVID-19, which recently included another Federal Reserve rate cut and insertion of liquidity into the credit markets. Harlow further noted that during their conversation, she couldn’t track the market movements because trading had been halted for 15 minutes.

“Finally for the message from the president over the weekend is that this virus is under tremendous control, but Dr. Fauci leading this effort says the worst is yet to come and the cases have doubled over the weekend, Peter,” Harlow eventually stated. “Markets are looking for leadership. Leadership is prescriptive. The markets here are reacting also to the president and his words. Is he doing enough to put confidence in the market by saying something that’s not under control is?”

Navarro, who has repeatedly credited Trump when the stock markets have surged and has literally said he’s “never disappointed in my president,” admonished Harlow for her question.

“Poppy, let’s not do that kind of thing right now,” he huffed.

“Peter, it’s not doing that kind of thing,” she answered. “The market is hanging on his words. You know this.”

While stocks have been plunging over the past few weeks over fears that the coronavirus will cause a global economic recession or even depression, the president bragged about the one-day Dow rally on Friday, sending off autographed stock graphs to loyalists such as Fox Business host Lou Dobbs.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#313 LFC

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Posted 21 March 2020 - 08:55 PM

This author says that Saudi Arabia won control of the oil market. It's an interesting take.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#314 golden_valley

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 10:29 AM

Not sure where to put this: Denmark is putting its economy in a deep freeze for a while.

Quote

This week, the Danish government told private companies hit by the effects of the pandemic that it would pay 75 percent of their employees’ salaries to avoid mass layoffs. The plan could require the government to spend as much as 13 percent of the national economy in three months.

The duration of this program is to be 3 months.

#315 LFC

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Posted 26 March 2020 - 08:49 AM

Ouch. Not unexpected but still ... ouch.

Posted Image
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#316 LFC

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 01:51 PM

Oil at $5/barrel? How is this even possible? Are futures traders just dumping contracts for liquidity?

https://finance.yaho...-172104653.html

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer





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