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Economics: Today's Jobs Report

Economics jobs politics

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#201 LFC

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Posted 07 December 2018 - 04:41 PM

It's been an ugly week for the stock market.

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Worries about the US-China trade war unleashed another round of heavy selling on Friday, capping off a brutal week on Wall Street.

The Dow fell 559 points, or 2.2%, on Friday as investors were left confused by conflicting messages coming out of the White House on the trade negotiations with China. The index was down as much as 663 points at one point.

The Nasdaq closed with a loss of 3.1%, while the S&P 500 retreated 2.3%.

For the week, the Dow plunged 1,150 points, or 4.5%. It was the index's worst week since March.

Stocks had been trading higher earlier Friday, but the market turned sharply lower after Trump administration officials seemed to contradict each other on trade.

While White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow sounded an optimistic note about China talks on CNBC, trade adviser Peter Navarro was simultaneously warning on CNN of higher tariffs if issues aren't resolved during a 90-day negotiating period.

"We've gotten a hodge-podge of mixed messages from people in the same administration," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR. "We're not sure who we're supposed to listen to."

Worries about the negative consequences of the trade war and hopes for progress have launched Wall Street on a wild ride of late. The US-China ceasefire sent stocks soaring on Monday. But doubts about the truce helped knock the Dow nearly 800 points into the red on Tuesday. And then the Dow plunged 785 points on Thursday before staging a huge comeback.

"It doesn't feel like much of a ceasefire," said Ed Yardeni, president of investment advisory Yardeni Research.

Investors also received a softer jobs report on Friday. The Labor Department said the United States added 155,000 jobs in November, missing expectations for a gain of 200,000. But the labor news did not trigger a selloff and some traders likely figured the slowdown in hiring will reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

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#202 LFC

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Posted 15 December 2018 - 02:17 PM

The Dow closed at 24,000. It opened the year at 24,824.

The S&P closed at 2,600. It opened the year at 2,696.

So ... much ... winning.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#203 LFC

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Posted 21 December 2018 - 11:47 PM

View PostLFC, on 15 December 2018 - 02:17 PM, said:

The Dow closed at 24,000. It opened the year at 24,824.

The S&P closed at 2,600. It opened the year at 2,696.

So ... much ... winning.

UPDATE (Nasdaq added):
The Dow closed at 24,000 22,445. It opened the year at 24,824.

The S&P closed at 2,600 2,417. It opened the year at 2,696.

The Nasdaq closed at 6,911 6,333. It opened the year at 7,007.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#204 LFC

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Posted 24 December 2018 - 03:48 PM

View PostLFC, on 21 December 2018 - 11:47 PM, said:

UPDATE (Nasdaq added):
The Dow closed at 24,000 22,445. It opened the year at 24,824.

The S&P closed at 2,600 2,417. It opened the year at 2,696.

The Nasdaq closed at 6,911 6,333. It opened the year at 7,007.


XMAS EVE UPDATE: (after markets were open for just a half day)
The Dow closed down 653.17 (2.91%) at 24,000 21,792. It opened the year at 24,824. Down 12.2% for the year.

The S&P closed down 65.52 (2.71%) at 2,600 2,351. It opened the year at 2,696. Down 12.8% for the year.

The Nasdaq closed down 335.49 (5.14%) at 6,911 6,193. It opened the year at 7,007. Down 11.6% for the year.


Merry Christmas!
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#205 LFC

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Posted 04 January 2019 - 02:33 PM

It's the Democrats' fault. Gee, who didn't see this coming.

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resident Donald Trump, who has taken credit for stock market gains, on Friday blamed the December bear market on the Democrats’ winning control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the November elections.

Trump also tried to soothe investor worries, saying markets would soon calm.

Fears of a global economic slowdown have roiled global financial markets in recent months amid ongoing concerns over the U.S-China trade war, tariffs and other economic concerns.

The major U.S. stock indexes posted their worst yearly performance in a decade in 2018 as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 marked their poorest December since 1931.

Since taking office in January 2017, Trump has repeatedly taken credit for stock market gains, frequently tweeting self-congratulatory remarks on Twitter. The S&P 500 and Dow reached record highs last fall.

Amid market concerns in recent months, Trump blamed Democrats after they won control of the House in November’s election though they didn’t take control until Jan. 3. He has also criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who he tapped to lead the U.S. central bank.

“As I have stated many times, if the Democrats take over the House or Senate, there will be disruption to the Financial Markets. We won the Senate, they won the House. Things will settle down,” Trump wrote in an early-morning post on Twitter on Friday.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#206 Traveler

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 08:59 AM

Well, its not all bad news.

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After two years of workers seeing modestly bigger paychecks, it looks like we are now in that part of the business cycle when steady and large gains show up. More evidence for this could be found in the jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. Workers had an average gain in hourly wages of 3.2 percent in December, well above the average of 2.4 percent during the past five years, as the chart below shows. More gains probably are on the way.

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#207 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 10:07 AM

 Traveler, on 08 January 2019 - 08:59 AM, said:

Workers had an average gain in hourly wages of 3.2 percent in December, well above the average of 2.4 percent during the past five years, as the chart below shows. More gains probably are on the way.

That's nominal income -- the real-money income increase is less than stellar.

Put another way, the Administration is bragging about an uptick in inflation.
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#208 Traveler

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 10:10 AM

To be sure, but the rise seems to exceed inflation rate the past two years. Haven't run the numbers though.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#209 George Rowell

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Posted 08 January 2019 - 10:24 AM

 D. C. Sessions, on 08 January 2019 - 10:07 AM, said:

That's nominal income -- the real-money income increase is less than stellar.

Put another way, the Administration is bragging about an uptick in inflation.

Inflation rate was 2.44% for 2018 so we have a whopping 0.8% real increase. That will be dwarfed by any changes in health care or taxation.

http://www.in2013dol...on-rate-in-2018
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