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Economics: Today's Jobs Report

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#1 DCoronata

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Posted 04 May 2018 - 12:19 PM

Hey guys,

I'm hoping to make this a bi-monthly thing, immediately following the jobs report in the first Friday (generally) of the month and the GDP report in generally the last week, often on Friday. GDP floats around, jobs is pretty stable.

https://www.bls.gov/.../pdf/empsit.pdf

Before starting, I'm going to give a little background/ glossary. There are two reports, the "A" report which is called the "Household Report" and the "B" report which is called the "Establishment Report." Data for this report was taken by interviewing roughly 60,000 households during the month and 100,000 businesses. They do three interviews with each group to get a sense of direction so the same household is done three times, each report has ~20K new households and the same roughly is done for businesses. They also conduct far more interviews on local levels, and this is used for other data collection as well as revisions (two at least per report). One of the most important pieces of data is the "Civilian Population Survey" (CPS) which counts all adults over 16 (actually 15, but they don't publish that data) who are "civilians", not in prison, not in insane asylums or old aged homes. If your grandmother is 99 and still somehow living at home, or even assisted living and not institutionalized, she's on this report. A lot of this intel can be found here:

https://www.bls.gov/bls/glossary.htm

And before we even begin, the definition of unemployment is VERY critical, most people don't know it.

"Unemployed persons (Current Population Survey) Persons aged 16 years and older who had no employment during the reference week, were available for work, except for temporary illness, and had made specific efforts to find employment sometime during the 4-week period ending with the reference week. Persons who were waiting to be recalled to a job from which they had been laid off need not have been looking for work to be classified as unemployed."

Just so you know, not collecting unemployment <> not unemployed. That's a whole other data set that I might get into if it ever gets interesting.

So what to make of the report? Unemployment (U3) is down to 3.9%, the lowest since the 20th century. But the reason for it going down isn't the best reason- in the last two months, we've lost 733K out of the labor force. Most of this is retirements, more of that later. We lost 239K out of unemployment, and we only added 3K jobs to the"A" households report. This is a very variable number, more volatile than the "A" report which is why they don't use it, but it shows how sometimes you can get "good" news and "bad" news in one report. There is an increase in unemployment duration, people not working 15-26 weeks went up from 880K to 1036K, that's a big up. Labor participation rate down another tick to 62.8%, and that's all from the drop outs in the labor force, again mostly retirements. 155,181K Americans are employed, up from 153,161K a year ago, but we've lost 1.34 million who are out of the labor force. Mostly retirees, but we've had a lot of deaths in the 16-64 cohort in recent years...

One of my bigger concerns (and we can't do anything about it realistically) is the rapidly aging workforce. In the last ten years we've increased the # of people 16-64 by 10 million, and senior citizens by 13 million. Right now 19.79% of CPS are seniors- it is very hard to grow an economy of older people who aren't working anywhere near the degree (19% of all non-institutionalized seniors work)

Another favorite metric, foreign born men have an LRPF of 77.9%, native born men 67.3%. That's a whopping difference.

No real change in multiple job-holders over the year (4.9% of the workforce) we've had a slight drop in the # of self-employed incorporated workers, a slight increase in self-employed unincorporated workers, roughly 15.6 million of the total.

For the "B" report, there's some really interesting data. Nice total # of jobs but wages are relatively flat, average weekly wages for Americans went from $924.60 to 925.98, an increase of 0.15% for the month, 1.8% annualized and that's not factored for inflation so we're not swinging the needle here. Last year it was $900.25/wk, an increase of 2.86%. CPI for the last year was 2.4%, so the average American's wage rose after inflation by 0.46% so that's really pretty weak.

There's an interesting little metric the "Diffusion Index" a rating from 0-100 based on company interview on whether or not they'll hire, fire, or have no new employees in the next month. The data went from 64.1 (+14.1%) to 57.6 (+7.6%) which means essentially new hiring should drop in the near future. The manufacturing report also fell from 64.5% to 53.9%, so maybe we'll have a weak manufacturing sector this summer.
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#2 Practical Girl

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Posted 04 May 2018 - 12:52 PM

Thank you for all the info. A question:

Quote

One of my bigger concerns (and we can't do anything about it realistically) is the rapidly aging workforce. In the last ten years we've increased the # of people 16-64 by 10 million, and senior citizens by 13 million. Right now 19.79% of CPS are seniors- it is very hard to grow an economy of older people who aren't working anywhere near the degree (19% of all non-institutionalized seniors work)

Can you elaborate on this concern? First question is what is a "senior"- age. Next, do you have any data on the ease of seniors finding meaningful employment, in today's workforce? And how it affects a senior relying on SS- taxes etc? And what portion of the seniors are not well enough to work?

It's a concern for all of us. Just some questions.
Every woman needs a blowtorch.
---Julia Child


--- On September 17, 1787, as Benjamin Franklin was leaving the deliberations of the Constitutional Convention, at Independence Hall, in Philadelphia, a woman called out to him, saying, “Well, Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?”
“A republic,” Franklin said, “if you can keep it.”


--- LFC, on Gorsuch ruling: "Awesome. A Christianist who swore an oath to uphold the laws of the nation and bore false witness when he did it"

--- "Write hard and clear about what hurts"
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#3 DCoronata

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Posted 04 May 2018 - 01:11 PM

View PostPractical Girl, on 04 May 2018 - 12:52 PM, said:

Thank you for all the info. A question:



Can you elaborate on this concern? First question is what is a "senior"- age. Next, do you have any data on the ease of seniors finding meaningful employment, in today's workforce? And how it affects a senior relying on SS- taxes etc? And what portion of the seniors are not well enough to work?

It's a concern for all of us. Just some questions.
Just using the "technical" description of 65 years of age and older.

In that link there's another really nice table (I'll give the separate link below) called the "A-6" table.

https://www.bls.gov/.../empsit.t06.htm

You can break this down as the following: There's a total of 50.9 million senior citizens who are still "independent". Of that number, 14.8 million are disabled, and 1.1 million are working. The unemployment rate for disabled seniors is 3.8%. For able bodied seniors, the unemployment rate is a scant 2.5%. I think companies "get it" and if you want a job, they appreciate you're going to do the job and do it well.

Of the total 50.9 million seniors, 9.7 million are employed, 265K are unemployed, and 40.95 million have left the workforce.
Ambassador Spock: "There's an old Vulcan proverb, that only Nixon could go to China, and only Trump could screw up North Korea."

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“Do you believe we can trust you rabble with a Republic?"

#4 LFC

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Posted 04 May 2018 - 03:08 PM

View PostDCoronata, on 04 May 2018 - 12:19 PM, said:

There are two reports, the "A" report which is called the "Household Report" and the "B" report which is called the "Establishment Report."

Years ago when Larry Kudlow blogged and allowed comments we used to tear him to shreds for seemlessly citing / badmouthing one report or the other depending upon whether or not it supported it's constant contention that we were in "The Bush Boom". He was shameless about it. And now he works for Trump.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#5 Rich T Bikkies

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Posted 04 May 2018 - 03:15 PM

Economics . . .

DCoronata, you're not seriously telling us that's the way you earn an honest crust? Sometimes I despair of the human race.

When I hear the word "economics" I don't reach for my revolver (I'm British, and a Quaker at that) but I look on, morose and depressed, as dogs die in the street and birds drop unconscious from the sky.

But don't mind me, you guys. Have your fun. I'm the only one out of step here. I do mathematics as a hobby, so who am I to whinge?
Reality is a hallucination caused by alcohol deprivation.

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God is not dead. He was merely voted out of office.

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#6 MSheridan

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Posted 04 May 2018 - 03:34 PM

DCoronata, saltwater or freshwater school, or is that no longer a meaningful question to ask?

#7 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 04 May 2018 - 05:13 PM

View PostMSheridan, on 04 May 2018 - 03:34 PM, said:

DCoronata, saltwater or freshwater school, or is that no longer a meaningful question to ask?

Less and less so. Lately, the question is more whether you're an economist or just play one for advertisements.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#8 Rich T Bikkies

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Posted 05 May 2018 - 12:43 AM

View PostMSheridan, on 04 May 2018 - 03:34 PM, said:

DCoronata, saltwater or freshwater school, or is that no longer a meaningful question to ask?

It's meaningful all right. I first started thinking of economists as crocodiles when I heard Milton Friedman interviewed on the radio, many years ago.
Reality is a hallucination caused by alcohol deprivation.

Only Satan can rebuke sin. The righteous don't know enough.

God is not dead. He was merely voted out of office.

You can do anything with anybody if you just save them the trouble of thinking.

#9 Practical Girl

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Posted 05 May 2018 - 03:10 PM

View PostDCoronata, on 04 May 2018 - 01:11 PM, said:

Just using the "technical" description of 65 years of age and older.

In that link there's another really nice table (I'll give the separate link below) called the "A-6" table.

https://www.bls.gov/.../empsit.t06.htm

You can break this down as the following: There's a total of 50.9 million senior citizens who are still "independent". Of that number, 14.8 million are disabled, and 1.1 million are working. The unemployment rate for disabled seniors is 3.8%. For able bodied seniors, the unemployment rate is a scant 2.5%. I think companies "get it" and if you want a job, they appreciate you're going to do the job and do it well.

Of the total 50.9 million seniors, 9.7 million are employed, 265K are unemployed, and 40.95 million have left the workforce.

This doesn't speak at all to the ageism that exists in the employment force, does it? Many in their late 50s-early 60s leave simply because no- most companies don't "get it".

They have "cultures" that include shots of alcohol, during at at the end of the day. Very young stuff. They see an older person? OMG... Won't "fit". Mostly, they just talk to the person, try to "suss" out their age, based on years of experience. Many, if not most, get kicked with a very nice email, talking about "best fit" for the company. What they're really talking about is that the 20-somethings they've just hired don't want to see a "mom" or "dad" at work.

That's not just economics, it's reality.
Every woman needs a blowtorch.
---Julia Child


--- On September 17, 1787, as Benjamin Franklin was leaving the deliberations of the Constitutional Convention, at Independence Hall, in Philadelphia, a woman called out to him, saying, “Well, Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?”
“A republic,” Franklin said, “if you can keep it.”


--- LFC, on Gorsuch ruling: "Awesome. A Christianist who swore an oath to uphold the laws of the nation and bore false witness when he did it"

--- "Write hard and clear about what hurts"
Ernest Hemingway

#10 DCoronata

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Posted 07 May 2018 - 05:18 AM

View PostRich T Bikkies, on 04 May 2018 - 03:15 PM, said:

Economics . . .

DCoronata, you're not seriously telling us that's the way you earn an honest crust? Sometimes I despair of the human race.

When I hear the word "economics" I don't reach for my revolver (I'm British, and a Quaker at that) but I look on, morose and depressed, as dogs die in the street and birds drop unconscious from the sky.

But don't mind me, you guys. Have your fun. I'm the only one out of step here. I do mathematics as a hobby, so who am I to whinge?
Oh, quite the contrary!!!

I'm an electronics engineer and a serious investor. I take the purely mathematical approach of nearly 35 years of professional engineering and data analysis, and cut through the political garbage. If you do math as a hobby, you might enjoy my unbiased and pragmatic approach, with heavy statistics and less nonsense.
Ambassador Spock: "There's an old Vulcan proverb, that only Nixon could go to China, and only Trump could screw up North Korea."

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“Do you believe we can trust you rabble with a Republic?"

#11 DCoronata

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Posted 07 May 2018 - 05:23 AM

View PostMSheridan, on 04 May 2018 - 03:34 PM, said:

DCoronata, saltwater or freshwater school, or is that no longer a meaningful question to ask?
Dendroica Coronata is a very odd bird to say the least. The most common of all North American wood warblers, a survivalist because he's not a specialist like most other warblers, he adapts to his environment and uses whatever feeding strategy works best for what's available to him.

Right now in half of the US, the (now called Setophaga Coronata... AKA yellow-rumped warbler) we're the most common bird out there, We're making our way to the boreal forests of Canada, or the higher altitudes of the northern half of the US to multiply and continue our population dominance of the warbler world.

And I'm not a trained economist. When I was in college my economics professor practically begged me to switch majors from electronic engineering to economics; probably because I understood the math better than anyone else in the class. If I had to describe my economy ideas they're more practically derived but far closer to the Krugman school than anyone else.
Ambassador Spock: "There's an old Vulcan proverb, that only Nixon could go to China, and only Trump could screw up North Korea."

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“Do you believe we can trust you rabble with a Republic?"

#12 DCoronata

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Posted 07 May 2018 - 05:32 AM

View PostPractical Girl, on 05 May 2018 - 03:10 PM, said:

This doesn't speak at all to the ageism that exists in the employment force, does it? Many in their late 50s-early 60s leave simply because no- most companies don't "get it".

They have "cultures" that include shots of alcohol, during at at the end of the day. Very young stuff. They see an older person? OMG... Won't "fit". Mostly, they just talk to the person, try to "suss" out their age, based on years of experience. Many, if not most, get kicked with a very nice email, talking about "best fit" for the company. What they're really talking about is that the 20-somethings they've just hired don't want to see a "mom" or "dad" at work.

That's not just economics, it's reality.
There's no doubt that corporate culture has changed and what I find more astonishing is the fact that the people most abused by the system, those who put in sixty hour weeks and lose their private lives are the most upset if others don't do the same work BUT the 60-hour guys are the ones first fired. When they burn out or struggle a little management decides they can't be relied upon to kill themselves for little or no pay, and they cast them aside.

The real problem is American companies no longer function the way they did in the recent past. You started a small company,watched it grow, and your intention was to keep it functional for generations. You passed it to your son(s) who then grew the company stronger and passed it to their son(s), etc... and you had community presence. As the company grew your prominence in the community grew, so they looked their employees in the eye every Sunday at church, or at the market, or in local establishments, and so on. Now everything is private equity and they don't care about the future, they don't care about the community, they only care about themselves. This is a self-inflicted and possibly fatal wound in America's economic fabric and quite frankly I'm a person who loves my job, loves to work, loves to create and innovate and I would never have thought of early retirement myself but with each passing week, the idea of leaving it forever grows stronger because American corporate culture is garbage, and most managers/CEOs aren't nearly as smart as me.

They don't deserve us.
Ambassador Spock: "There's an old Vulcan proverb, that only Nixon could go to China, and only Trump could screw up North Korea."

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“Do you believe we can trust you rabble with a Republic?"

#13 DCoronata

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Posted 07 May 2018 - 05:41 AM

View PostLFC, on 04 May 2018 - 03:08 PM, said:

Years ago when Larry Kudlow blogged and allowed comments we used to tear him to shreds for seemlessly citing / badmouthing one report or the other depending upon whether or not it supported it's constant contention that we were in "The Bush Boom". He was shameless about it. And now he works for Trump.
During the campaign, Trump said the unemployment rate is as high as 42%.
So let's examine how that metric was derived- he took labor employment (151,968K) and divided that by CPS (254,091K). That gives us a 40.2% unemployment rate for September 2016 (even when lying, Trump lies!)
Right now, those numbers are 155,181K and 257,272K. So according to Trump, the current unemployment rate is 39.7%.

Why isn't he doing anything to fix his horrible 40% unemployment rate?
Ambassador Spock: "There's an old Vulcan proverb, that only Nixon could go to China, and only Trump could screw up North Korea."

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“Do you believe we can trust you rabble with a Republic?"

#14 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 07 May 2018 - 08:10 AM

View PostDCoronata, on 07 May 2018 - 05:41 AM, said:

Why isn't he doing anything to fix his horrible 40% unemployment rate?

The Deep State is blocking his efforts. Drain the Swamp!!!!!
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#15 LFC

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Posted 07 May 2018 - 09:39 AM

View PostD. C. Sessions, on 07 May 2018 - 08:10 AM, said:

The Deep State is blocking his efforts. Drain Stock the Swamp!!!!!

FTFY.

How can you expect poor Trump to function when so many of his "best people" have been driven out like Michael Flynn, Steve Bannon, Rob Porter, and Rex Tillerson. And now the "liberal media" is trying to drive out selfless, tireless civil servants like Ryan Zinke and Scott Pruitt.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#16 LFC

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Posted 07 May 2018 - 09:45 AM

View PostDCoronata, on 07 May 2018 - 05:18 AM, said:

I'm an electronics engineer and a serious investor. I take the purely mathematical approach of nearly 35 years of professional engineering and data analysis, and cut through the political garbage. If you do math as a hobby, you might enjoy my unbiased and pragmatic approach, with heavy statistics and less nonsense.

By "purely mathematical approach" are you referring to technical analysis by any chance? I worked for a Reuters owned company years back (as in a lotta' years back) that supplied historical stock and mutual fund data for a TA product called MetaStock.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#17 DCoronata

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Posted 07 May 2018 - 10:11 AM

View PostLFC, on 07 May 2018 - 09:45 AM, said:

By "purely mathematical approach" are you referring to technical analysis by any chance? I worked for a Reuters owned company years back (as in a lotta' years back) that supplied historical stock and mutual fund data for a TA product called MetaStock.
What I do is compare current month's or several months' data to historical data which is readily available in the Census Bureau's websites or through the wonderful Saint Louis Fed website "Fred". I try to do pure apples-to-apples data and then I provide insight based on either demographics or other publically available metrics.

For example- https://fred.stlouis...g/series/PAYEMS
They've got several tens of thousands of data series including several obsolete series available.

Now, for me the most critical aspect of current vs past economics is the vast numbers of retirees in the system. Any professional journalist who doesn't reference the demographics when discussing LFPR is simply just screwing everything up. You can't go from a median age of 30 to our current median age of 38 and not have major societal impacts. Older people aren't as willing to start their own businesses (note- in the US that is... in Northern European countries they are just as willing because the safety net protects them economically and in terms of health insurance), they don't consume as many new cars or new homes, they don't buy diapers or child care accessories. They're a totally different economic demographic and they're far more interested in defensive economics than playing offense. GET OFF OF MY LAWN!
Ambassador Spock: "There's an old Vulcan proverb, that only Nixon could go to China, and only Trump could screw up North Korea."

“Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“Do you believe we can trust you rabble with a Republic?"

#18 Practical Girl

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Posted 08 May 2018 - 12:03 PM

 DCoronata, on 07 May 2018 - 10:11 AM, said:

Now, for me the most critical aspect of current vs past economics is the vast numbers of retirees in the system. Any professional journalist who doesn't reference the demographics when discussing LFPR is simply just screwing everything up. You can't go from a median age of 30 to our current median age of 38 and not have major societal impacts.

Isn't this just a "duh?". We've been expecting this for a very long time. It doesn't take an economist to tell us that this was always to be a big, retired generation.

Quote

Older people aren't as willing to start their own businesses (note- in the US that is..


This simply mixes facts with reality. App 90+% (it's actually more) of all US businesses are started either as single proprietors' or very small corporations. At least 90% of all fail, and quickly. Much of it is lack of capital to carry on through the very steep learning curve of going from worker to business person. The skill set necessary to make it in business in the US is very different than being even an expert in one's field. It's a fact that isn't lost on a lot of older folks. And one I hope they keep paying attention to.

Bottom line- if your aren't a real expert in your business AND a real business person, you have no business starting your own business. It's also true of the 20-20 somethings. Don't look now, but venture capital has been drying up. No more doing the Oprah thing- "You get $25 million! and You get 25 million!!" too much loss.And that rarely, if ever was offered to an older person.

BTW: I get your point about Northern European countries and the big ticket consumerism. But hey- your the numbers guy. Do, please, the research that shows whose actually been propping up our economy with all that. And it wasn't the young set. Perhaps sick, but it is what it is. We either want them to put all their net worth into businesses they don't know how to run, or spend like drunken sailors. The latter, they have done, which is a small part of recovery.
Every woman needs a blowtorch.
---Julia Child


--- On September 17, 1787, as Benjamin Franklin was leaving the deliberations of the Constitutional Convention, at Independence Hall, in Philadelphia, a woman called out to him, saying, “Well, Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?”
“A republic,” Franklin said, “if you can keep it.”


--- LFC, on Gorsuch ruling: "Awesome. A Christianist who swore an oath to uphold the laws of the nation and bore false witness when he did it"

--- "Write hard and clear about what hurts"
Ernest Hemingway

#19 DCoronata

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Posted 08 May 2018 - 12:31 PM

 Practical Girl, on 08 May 2018 - 12:03 PM, said:

Isn't this just a "duh?". We've been expecting this for a very long time. It doesn't take an economist to tell us that this was always to be a big, retired generation.



This simply mixes facts with reality. App 90+% (it's actually more) of all US businesses are started wither as single proprietors or very small corporations. At least 90% of all fail, and quickly. Much of it is lack of capital to carry on through the very steep learning curve of going from worker to business person. The skill set necessary to make it in business in the US is very different than being even an expert in one's field. It's a fact that isn't lost on a lot of older folks. And one I hope they keep paying attention to.

Bottom line- if your aren't a real expert in your business AND a real business person, you have no business starting your own business. It's also true of the 20-20 somethings. Don't look now, but venture capital has been drying up. No more doing the Oprah thing- "You get $25 million! and You get 25 million!!" too much loss.And that rarely, if ever was offered to an older person.

BTW: I get your point about Northern European countries and the big ticket consumerism. But hey- your the numbers guy. Do, please, the research that shows whose actually been propping up our economy with all that. And it wasn't the young set. Perhaps sick, but it is what it is. We either want them to put all their net worth into businesses they don't know how to run, or spend like drunken sailors. The latter, they have done, which is a small part of recovery.

1) It isn't a "D'uh" if you read a lot of economics news forums. Traveller and I met on Bloomberg, and to be fair they're slightly better than most. If you read Marketwatch or WSJ you never hear them discuss the demographics! I sometimes post at the NY Times website and quite frequently you see posts on this issue and demographics are almost never part of the mix... It might be a "D'uh" if you have a functional memory- one reason why I want to do these discussions is the lack of serious economic discussion on most American websites that deal with economics!

2) You know you hear that "90%" figure bandied about but the reality is, it isn't that bad.
https://www.scienced...50401132856.htm
""It doesn't matter if you're selling bananas, airplanes, or whatever," Hamilton says -- the mortality rate is the same. Though the number, of course, varies from firm to firm, the team estimated that the typical company lasts about ten years before it's bought out, merges, or gets liquidated."

That's for public businesses. For privately owned businesses, most actually do pretty well.
https://www.bls.gov/...preneurship.htm
Chart three is fascinating- it's almost like they cut a parabola in half and the average MTBF (that's engineer for the time it takes for half to die) is about 5-6 years depending upon which year it started.

Now I want you to please note that being "the numbers guy" I try really hard to get them right before posting. If you want to know who "props up the economy" its the 70% of GDP that goes into consumer spending (minus the difference between exports and imports...) and most of that money, roughly 60% is services, which includes health care, rents, personal services, eating out, etc... About 35% are non-durable and durable goods, mostly expendables. We spend a lot of money on food, fuel, and clothing, etc.
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#20 Beelzebuddy

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Posted 08 May 2018 - 12:37 PM

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Fear Sells!

Cui bono?

"The real problem of humanity is the following: we have paleolithic emotions; medieval institutions; and god-like technology." - EO Wilson.

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