Jump to content


The Clinton-Trump (Blue-Red) Divides in America


6 replies to this topic

#1 LFC

    Fiscal Conservative

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 22184 posts
  • LocationPennsylvania

Posted 12 March 2018 - 10:56 AM

Brookings looked at the differences between the U.S. counties that voted for Clinton vs. those who voted for Trump. First off Trump won a LOT more counties which isn't too much of a shock since we already know that Democrats perform better in higher population areas but the split was bigger than I expected. Clinton won 472 counties while Trump took 2,584.

Next they examined the counties for a variety of factors. One of the biggest that jumped out was the economic activity generated by these counties. Again it isn't too much of a shock to expect that many of these rural counties produce less but in aggregate the difference is pretty staggering.

Quote

Our observation: The less-than-500 counties that Hillary Clinton carried nationwide encompassed a massive 64 percent of America’s economic activity as measured by total output in 2015. By contrast, the more-than-2,600 counties that Donald Trump won generated just 36 percent of the country’s output—just a little more than one-third of the nation’s economic activity.


Quote

Moreover, while this divide is striking by any standard, it appears to be “unprecedented in the era of modern economic statistics,” as Tankersley noted in his story, for a losing presidential candidate to have represented so large a share of nation’s economic base. By comparison, Democratic Presidential candidate Al Gore in 2000 won counties that generated only about 54 percent of the country’s gross domestic product en route to winning the popular vote, while losing the election in the Electoral College. Gore, won more than 100 more counties in 2000 than Clinton did in 2016, meaning that his appeal, while less monolithic across high-output counties, extended into more lower-output areas.

The upshot: No election in decades has revealed as sharp a political divide between the densest economic centers and the rest of the country — between what Tankersley labeled in a tweet “high-output” and “low-output” America.

All of which suggests multiple problems. Most broadly, the stark political divide underscores the likelihood of the two parties talking entirely past each other on the most important issues of economic policy. Given the election map we revealed, the Trump administration will likely feel pressure to respond most to the desires and frustrations of the nation’s struggling hinterland, and discount the priorities and needs of the nation’s high-output economic base.

The Republican base is not only shrinking in demographics but also in economic productivity. The reaction to this by state level Republicans like Gov. Brownback and Gov. Walker, and states like WV and OK, is to cut education funding and teachers' wages. America's educated economy isn't going to slow down which is going to leave more and more people behind demanding jobs that no longer exists. And the people they elect are perpetuating these problems through to their children and grandchildren. Basically the GOP is building the middle America ghetto.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2 baw1064

    formerly of the public sector

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 4095 posts
  • LocationEarthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanos--oh my!

Posted 12 March 2018 - 11:59 AM

Quote

Democratic Presidential candidate Al Gore in 2000 won counties that generated only about 54 percent of the country’s gross domestic product en route to winning the popular vote, while losing the election in the Electoral College. Gore, won more than 100 more counties in 2000 than Clinton did in 2016, meaning that his appeal, while less monolithic across high-output counties, extended into more lower-output areas.


There are two possible explanations for this. One is that Gore didn't run the table as completely as Clinton in high-productivity counties (which is what the quote seems to claim). The other, which is more ominous but probably true to some extent, is that the output of the rural counties has dropped drastically at least on a relative basis over 16 years.
“Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, Nothing is going to get better. It's not.” --Dr. Seuss

#3 Traveler

    Rambling Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 11920 posts
  • LocationPhilly Area

Posted 12 March 2018 - 12:10 PM

I said this before, but in PA, the 7 counties around Pitt and Philly generate 83% of the state GDP.

Funny, but that higher GDP is captured by the likes of the Kocheads, who spend it on the takers so they can get a greater cut.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#4 indy

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 8856 posts

Posted 12 March 2018 - 12:10 PM

I read somewhere (can't remember where now) that the economic growth rate in rural communities has eclipsed metro areas by a considerable amount over the last decade, primarily due to growth in energy production, particularly fracking.

#5 Practical Girl

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 7862 posts
  • LocationAustin TX

Posted 12 March 2018 - 12:38 PM

Not surprising. Most GOPers are aspirational folks, who for the most part are accustomed to authoritarian leadership. They like to be sold, no matter their economic position.
Every woman needs a blowtorch.
---Julia Child


--- On September 17, 1787, as Benjamin Franklin was leaving the deliberations of the Constitutional Convention, at Independence Hall, in Philadelphia, a woman called out to him, saying, “Well, Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?”
“A republic,” Franklin said, “if you can keep it.”


--- LFC, on Gorsuch ruling: "Awesome. A Christianist who swore an oath to uphold the laws of the nation and bore false witness when he did it"

#6 LFC

    Fiscal Conservative

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 22184 posts
  • LocationPennsylvania

Posted 12 March 2018 - 04:10 PM

Another interesting divide found by Brookings; fossil fuel dependency. In general the states with the highest CO2 outputs per capita were more likely to vote Trump. Dependence on coal for electricity was similar.

Quote

To be sure, it’s not new to suggest that Clinton-voting “blue” states might be more ideologically sympathetic to President Obama’s strong carbon-reduction agenda than Trump-voting red states. However, what is striking, notes Brownstein, is the extremely tight alignment between states’ emissions and politics preferences. This alignment shows how very strongly economic self-interest shapes and reinforces ideology.

Take a look at this table, paralleling Brownstein’s chart and adding coal to the mix. The table shows how states voted alongside information on their 2015 per capita carbon emissions.

Posted Image

Quote

Scrolling down the table, it’s immediately evident that the states with the highest carbon emissions (and often the heaviest dependency on carbon-intensive fuels, namely coal) tended almost monolithically to vote for Trump, who has lambasted the “decarbonization” paradigm and steps to advance it, such as the Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan to reduce pollution from power plants.

The alignment is sharp: All 22 of the states that emitted the most energy-related carbon per capita voted for Trump over Clinton last month, including, in order, Wyoming, North Dakota, West Virginia, Alaska, Louisiana, Montana, Kentucky, Indiana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Iowa, Texas, and Alabama. Overall, Trump carried 27 of the 32 states that emit the most energy-related carbon per capita.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#7 Progressive whisperer

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 10233 posts

Posted 13 March 2018 - 05:15 AM

Don’t forget the Rollin’ Coal!

Trump delenda est.
GOP delenda est.
Resist!





1 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users