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#21 Probabilistic

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 12:34 PM

View PostProgressive whisperer, on 05 September 2017 - 12:17 PM, said:

Sadly, that was kind of the smart money position on Europe in 1914.

Sadly, I don't have smart or dumb money. Just (dumb) opinions.

The comparison of the Central Powers with North Korea doesn't make sense.

#22 Progressive whisperer

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 01:46 PM

View PostProbabilistic, on 05 September 2017 - 12:34 PM, said:



Sadly, I don't have smart or dumb money. Just (dumb) opinions.

The comparison of the Central Powers with North Korea doesn't make sense.

It wouldn't, the point was that miscalculation or an outside actor may disastrously change the probable outcome.

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#23 Probabilistic

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 01:54 PM

View PostProgressive whisperer, on 05 September 2017 - 01:46 PM, said:

It wouldn't, the point was that miscalculation or an outside actor may disastrously change the probable outcome.

That may indeed be the case but changing the current stalemate by force is going to be cost prohibitive. Grindingly slow diplomacy with occasional inch and half of progress is the only recourse (that is, after the miming feels jaded). Objective being stabilize, contain, de-escalate.

#24 Progressive whisperer

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 02:25 PM

It's still frightfully unstable.

Not to mention that generations of people not in the ruling group in NK are doomed to misery. Better than ending the world in nuclear winter, I grant.

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#25 AnBr

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 08:14 PM

View PostProgressive whisperer, on 05 September 2017 - 10:50 AM, said:

View PostRue Bella, on 05 September 2017 - 10:37 AM, said:

That and turn off Trump's Tweet generator.

Well, I was talking about POSSIBLE steps...

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#26 baw1064

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 09:24 PM

View PostProbabilistic, on 05 September 2017 - 01:54 PM, said:

That may indeed be the case but changing the current stalemate by force is going to be cost prohibitive. Grindingly slow diplomacy with occasional inch and half of progress is the only recourse (that is, after the miming feels jaded). Objective being stabilize, contain, de-escalate.

Of course, that has been the situation, more or less, since 1952. And evidently, it wasn't to the North Koreans' liking, or else they wouldn't have tried their darndest to destabilize it. So what would be different now? A stalemate which is pretty much identical, except with North Korea having nukes? Even without nukes, it was generally recognized by all concerned that changing the situation by force was cost prohibitive...so, what do the nukes add?

Or, does the Kim family's grip on power depend on continuous escalation ad infinitum. Let's hope not, because if that's really the case, something will crack, sooner or later.
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#27 Probabilistic

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 11:41 PM

View Postbaw1064, on 05 September 2017 - 09:24 PM, said:

Of course, that has been the situation, more or less, since 1952. And evidently, it wasn't to the North Koreans' liking, or else they wouldn't have tried their darndest to destabilize it. So what would be different now? A stalemate which is pretty much identical, except with North Korea having nukes? Even without nukes, it was generally recognized by all concerned that changing the situation by force was cost prohibitive...so, what do the nukes add?

Ensures forceful change is truly cost prohibitive, i.e., not taking any chances (US has a history of not attacking nuclear weapons states; whereas some history of regime change in non-nuclear weapons states)... and potentially cleave US-South Korean alliance.

Presumably in the Kim family's thinking, Nukes + ICBMs with capacity to hit the west coast reduces the chances of US misadventure even further.

#28 Probabilistic

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Posted 07 September 2017 - 12:24 PM

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#29 baw1064

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Posted 07 September 2017 - 07:41 PM

So, was Truman's decision to not actually win the Korean War a colossal blunder? I tend to think so based on recent events.
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#30 AnBr

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Posted 07 September 2017 - 08:29 PM

View Postbaw1064, on 07 September 2017 - 07:41 PM, said:

So, was Truman's decision to not actually win the Korean War a colossal blunder? I tend to think so based on recent events.

One word. China.
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“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

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On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

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#31 Traveler

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Posted 08 September 2017 - 10:20 AM

Yeah, but China was not in the greatest position to object back then. But its army had put quite a world of hurt on the US, so cannot fault him for taking his profits when he did. Still, I wonder just how much fight was left in the Chicoms and NK at the time. gmat might know...
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#32 JackD

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Posted 08 September 2017 - 12:38 PM

There was also concern with possible Russian intervention.

#33 gmat

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Posted 17 September 2017 - 09:25 AM

I think the NK regime wants to stay in power and has concluded, rationally, that a nuclear deterrent will further that objective.

As for the US, 1) military enforcement of non-proliferation is a bad idea, and 2) if NK is really anything other than a very limited tactical threat to the US, I want my fucking money back

Smartest thing for the US would be to normalize relations with NK (just like the smartest thing to do with Iran).

#34 baw1064

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Posted 17 September 2017 - 03:33 PM

View Postgmat, on 17 September 2017 - 09:25 AM, said:

I think the NK regime wants to stay in power and has concluded, rationally, that a nuclear deterrent will further that objective.


However, if this is the case, they seriously need to adjust their rhetoric.

It's one thing to spout off over the top existential threats if everyone knows you're in no position to carry them out, but if you threaten to sink Japan into the sea (not that this is possible geologically) and you have nuclear bombs and missiles...the most likely outcome is that Japan and South Korea will in quick order build their own nukes, which will make the Chinese very nervous and destabilize the whole regional situation.
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#35 LFC

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Posted 18 September 2017 - 10:57 AM

View Postgmat, on 17 September 2017 - 09:25 AM, said:

I think the NK regime wants to stay in power and has concluded, rationally, that a nuclear deterrent will further that objective.

With the recent history of Iraq providing strong evidence that they are correct. This is what happens when you decide to meddle. You scare other nations. If I was the leader of Iraq I also would have been balls to the wall to develop nuclear weapons. The bogus attack on Saddam Hussein made that choice crystal clear. And I'd be warily eyeing the U.S. for any violation of the treaty by Trump.
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#36 Rue Bella

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Posted 22 September 2017 - 09:10 PM

I'd forgotten Korea was the site for the winter Olympics this coming February. Wonder if NK is just trying to stick a fly in the ointment. Or should that be 'in the snow'. 'The world will be watching.'

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#37 baw1064

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Posted 22 September 2017 - 10:26 PM

This was sooo utterly predictable:

Aides warned Trump not to attack North Korea's leader personally before his fiery UN address]

Quote

Senior aides to President Donald Trump repeatedly warned him not to deliver a personal attack on North Korea's leader at the United Nations this week, saying insulting the young despot in such a prominent venue could irreparably escalate tensions and shut off any chance for negotiations to defuse the nuclear crisis.

Trump's derisive description of Kim Jong Un as "Rocket Man on a suicide mission" and his threat to "totally destroy" North Korea were not in a speech draft that several senior officials reviewed and vetted Monday, the day before Trump gave his first address to the U.N. General Assembly, two U.S. officials said.

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#38 AnBr

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Posted 22 September 2017 - 10:44 PM

View Postbaw1064, on 22 September 2017 - 10:26 PM, said:


Might help further explain John Kelly's facepalm during the speech.

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“Trump’s a stupid man’s idea of a smart person, a poor man’s idea of a rich person & a weak man’s idea of a strong man.”

— Fran Lebowitz


“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937

#39 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 23 September 2017 - 06:43 AM

View Postandydp, on 04 September 2017 - 06:00 PM, said:

North Korea is a whack job so Kim III may just set one off in Seoul if he gets attacked. Of course, we have our own whack jobs here but its hard to say which one it is.

He doesn't need nukes for that. Seoul is within normal artillery range of damned near every gun the North has. Long before we could possibly get enough munitions into the area to take out those guns, Seoul would be rubble with so many bodies that cleanup would have to be done with napalm.

Going after the C3 would be pointless -- the gunners already have targets and only need one command. That, or sudden silence.
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Posted 23 September 2017 - 06:47 AM

View PostProbabilistic, on 05 September 2017 - 12:12 PM, said:

US is not going to fight a preventive war where the costs on SK, Japan and to itself are extremely high.

With any other Commander in Chief I'd agree.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO





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