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North Korea


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#1 baw1064

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Posted 04 September 2017 - 02:01 AM

It appears that North Korea has set off an H bomb. Just asking a few questions:

1) Does the U.S. have the firepower to obliterate North Korea (as in, no life forms remaining on the territory), if we didn't care about consequences? I assume the answer is yes, since at one point we purportedly had amassed anough firepower to wipe out the entire Soviet Union ~20 times over.

2) If we were to launch an "annihilation attack" on North Korea, would it guarantee World War 3 (meaning the detonation of all Russian, Chinese, and U.S. weapons, and the end of life as we know it on earth?

3) Would we ever give nuclear technology to South Korea and/or Japan?

4) Would doing that start World War 3?
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#2 Progressive whisperer

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Posted 04 September 2017 - 07:02 AM

My answers (just guessed)

1: Yes, several times over. Don't know if we could do it before they inflict damage on / invade South Korea.

2: Probably, but who wants to test the theory even if your guess is no?

3: Both bad ideas, especially S. Korea which was a dictatorship itself for many years. Not sure Japan would accept.

4: if not directly, then there would be a strong chance of a WWI type chain reaction causing it (Japan nukes NK, China nukes Japan, U.S. nukes China...),
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#3 cmk

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Posted 04 September 2017 - 08:11 AM

............


I'm just going to go through the rest of my day pretending I never opened this thread, lol.
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#4 JackD

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Posted 04 September 2017 - 09:47 AM

My guess is that North Korea is the new Pakistan and we'll huff and we'll puff but we won't blow their house in because no-one wants nuclear war.

#5 Progressive whisperer

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Posted 04 September 2017 - 10:03 AM

View Postcmk, on 04 September 2017 - 08:11 AM, said:

............


I'm just going to go through the rest of my day pretending I never opened this thread, lol.

Sleeping soundly is SO overrated...

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#6 Rue Bella

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Posted 04 September 2017 - 11:05 AM

View PostJackD, on 04 September 2017 - 09:47 AM, said:

My guess is that North Korea is the new Pakistan and we'll huff and we'll puff but we won't blow their house in because no-one wants nuclear war.

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#7 JackD

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Posted 04 September 2017 - 11:18 AM

Yeah, there's that.

#8 andydp

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Posted 04 September 2017 - 01:43 PM

A reminder you can do serious damage to specific targets without "invoking the nuclear option".

Being a "top down" military structure, destroying North Korea's C3 (Command Control Communications) centers would basically destroy their military's ability to do anything other than fight in place. The NK Army is not very mechanized. Most troop movements are by truck.

Modern day cruise missiles and "smart" munitions can hit targets with amazing precision.

Reinforced bunkers (like caves) are vulnerable to smart bombs and the "Bunker Busters" developed during Desert Storm. Bunker Busters are made with the tube of an 8 inch howitzer filled with conventional explosives and given a hardened nose cone. They can penetrate several meters of concrete. Nothing says you can't work out a tactic to penetrate mountains. (BTW: all you have to do is collapse the entrances to render them inoperable).

As we saw in the attack on the Syrian airfield merely bombing a target isn't going to render it out of commission. (Air force bases have dedicated runway repair organizations.) You still have to put people on the ground to occupy it. Something the Trump NSC (Version 1) (Bannon) likely did not want to hear.

PS: The MOAB (Mother of all Bombs) deployed in Afghanistan is designed to throw out a killing shock wave, not to penetrate a bunker.
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#9 JackD

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Posted 04 September 2017 - 01:59 PM

Think that will prevent disaster for South Korea?

#10 andydp

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Posted 04 September 2017 - 06:00 PM

View PostJackD, on 04 September 2017 - 01:59 PM, said:

Think that will prevent disaster for South Korea?

Frankly, I think anything is possible. I see everyone is thinking Nuke when they should also be thinking smart bomb.

One has to hope now that Bannon and some of his gang are on the outs, Pres Trump's advisors will show him other courses of action. Like the one above. Will this eliminate disaster ? No. North Korea is a whack job so Kim III may just set one off in Seoul if he gets attacked. Of course, we have our own whack jobs here but its hard to say which one it is.

I'd like to think once the North Korean Army sees how the "oppressed" South Koreans are living under the yoke of free markets they may think twice about continuing the attack. One other factor: the North Korean Army is likely undernourished. I doubt they'd get much farther past the KFC without a takeout.
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#11 baw1064

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Posted 04 September 2017 - 07:42 PM

View Postandydp, on 04 September 2017 - 06:00 PM, said:

One other factor: the North Korean Army is likely undernourished. I doubt they'd get much farther past the KFC without a takeout.

Hmm, this suggests a strategy of leaving contaminated food in "storage depots" meant for them to find.
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#12 andydp

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Posted 04 September 2017 - 08:41 PM

View Postbaw1064, on 04 September 2017 - 07:42 PM, said:



Hmm, this suggests a strategy of leaving contaminated food in "storage depots" meant for them to find.
Doesn't even have to be actually "contaminated". Just spread a rumor something is wrong with a food item and watch the medical people get swamped with food poisoning cases.
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#13 Traveler

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 07:43 AM

Andy, I'd like to hear what gmat says on this approach. He has a pretty good feel for the numbers and types of artillery and rockets that would need to be taken out. I think it would work, but at what cost? How many SK deaths? Hard to take out all those rockets surgically IMO.
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#14 andydp

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 09:42 AM

View PostTraveler, on 05 September 2017 - 07:43 AM, said:

Andy, I'd like to hear what gmat says on this approach. He has a pretty good feel for the numbers and types of artillery and rockets that would need to be taken out. I think it would work, but at what cost? How many SK deaths? Hard to take out all those rockets surgically IMO.

I agree, you'll never take everything out. The best option would be to neutralize the nukes and the nuke delivery systems.

The problem you get is all they need to do is create a dirty artillery round and aim it at downtown Seoul.
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#15 Progressive whisperer

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 10:28 AM

View Postandydp, on 05 September 2017 - 09:42 AM, said:



I agree, you'll never take everything out. The best option would be to neutralize the nukes and the nuke delivery systems.

The problem you get is all they need to do is create a dirty artillery round and aim it at downtown Seoul.

Or even a bunch of conventional HE rounds while we are focused on the nukes. Unless we somehow evacuate Seoul without tipping off NK that something is happening.

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#16 Rue Bella

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 10:37 AM

Quote

Unless we somehow evacuate Seoul without tipping off NK that something is happening.

That and turn off Trump's Tweet generator.
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#17 Progressive whisperer

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 10:50 AM

View PostRue Bella, on 05 September 2017 - 10:37 AM, said:



That and turn off Trump's Tweet generator.

Well, I was talking about POSSIBLE steps...

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#18 baw1064

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 11:11 AM

I think 36 hours without tweets would be a clear tipoff to Pyongyang that something was imminent.
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#19 Probabilistic

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 12:12 PM

Nothing is going to happen regarding North Korea. Both sides are going to pantomime the Maori war dance for a while till everyone gets bored and other pressing events slide into our consciousness.

The world community will pay a small bribe from time to time to NK for it to curb it's misbehavior. NK will ratchet up the troublemaking a notch when it needs extra bit of cash but it knows the brink and will avoid action to bring about it's own destruction. US is not going to fight a preventive war where the costs on SK, Japan and to itself are extremely high. Belligerence will be on display on both sides. South Korea and Japan may become avowed nuclear weapons state. But the situation is a stalemate that everyone will learn to live with eventually.

#20 Progressive whisperer

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 12:17 PM

View PostProbabilistic, on 05 September 2017 - 12:12 PM, said:

Nothing is going to happen regarding North Korea. Both sides are going to pantomime the Maori war dance for a while till everyone gets bored and other pressing events slide into our consciousness.

The world community will pay a small bribe from time to time to NK for it to curb it's misbehavior. NK will ratchet up the troublemaking a notch when it needs extra bit of cash but it knows the brink and will avoid action to bring about it's own destruction. US is not going to fight a preventive war where the costs on SK, Japan and to itself are extremely high. Belligerence will be on display on both sides. South Korea and Japan may become avowed nuclear weapons state. But the situation is a stalemate that everyone will learn to live with eventually.

Sadly, that was kind of the smart money position on Europe in 1914.

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