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Renamed: The 2018 Mid-Term Elections


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#1 LFC

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Posted 25 August 2017 - 05:00 PM

EDIT: Opening this thread up to the 2018 elections in general.

Republican gerrymandering is completely out of control and Dems tend to cluster nearer to urban areas where there are actually jobs. This makes 2018 look ugly as hell.

Quote

If elections for the US House of Representatives were held today, polling averages suggest Democrats would get a little bit over 54 percent of the vote.

That would be a big win. For context, Barack Obama won just under 53 percent of the vote in 2008, and George H.W. Bush got a smidge over 53 percent of the vote in 1988. Neither of those were close elections by any stretch of the imagination.

But here’s the thing. According to Elliott Morris’s model for Decision Desk HQ, 54 percent of the vote won’t deliver Democrats a landslide House majority. In fact, it won’t deliver them a majority at all. Morris thinks 54 percent of the vote will translate to 206 seats, leaving Republicans with 229 seats and the majority.

There is a somewhat tedious debate involving political scientists, journalists, and election analysts as to whether we should characterize this situation — in which 54 percent of the vote wins Democrats 47 percent of the seats — as the result of “gerrymandering” or just “clustering” into an inefficient geographical pattern.

But whatever you call it, it’s an ugly number.

Dems and people who lean Dem are now trapped by the tyranny of the minority. Basically the places that earn are stuck supporting the places that want to f*** everybody over that they don't like.

I'm starting to consider libertarianism. Imagine if all of these places were left to their own devices with a small federal gov't? It would never happen. Their representatives would still fight to siphon off tax dollars they didn't produce. It's the red state way.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

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""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2 LFC

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Posted 29 August 2017 - 04:02 PM

A lot of potential Democratic candidates are coming out for 2018. Maybe they smell blood, maybe they just can't sit by anymore after watching the train wreck of Republican control, and maybe it's a bit of both.

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Katie Porter and Dave Min are the type of candidates House Democrats dreamed of recruiting in past cycles. Both are Harvard-educated law professors with impressive biographies, connections to powerful lawmakers and strong fundraising capabilities.

The only problem? The colleagues at the University of California-Irvine are battling one another for the right to face Rep. Mimi Walters (R-CA) next fall.

“On some level it’s bizarre,” Min told TPM. “It’s unusual, obviously, that two members of a small faculty are doing this.”

Their race is emblematic of the double-edged sword it is for a party to have a glut of candidates eager to run for office.

In nearly every top-targeted race across the country, Democrats face competitive primaries that could complicate their party’s chances of winning the majority.

“I haven’t seen this much enthusiasm to run this early in a cycle,” said Dave Wasserman, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report’s House race guru. “It’s a good problem to have.”

“It does seem like there’s a primary in every single race,” said John Lapp, a top Democratic ad-maker.

Lapp said that some primaries will “get bloody and ugly” and flawed nominees might win in some places — but on balance he’d rather have too many than too few candidates running.

“The days of attempting to clear primaries are over but to be honest I’d much rather have the abundance of energy than the problem we’ve had before, begging one candidate to get in. What you want is surfboards all over if the wave comes,” he said.

Ian Russell was a top staffer at Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee the last few election cycles — and spent a lot of time begging. The Obama years weren’t an easy time for House Democratic candidate recruitment.

This year, he’s a consultant working with a number of candidates, including Min, who face the opposite problem: Tough primaries against other top-tier Democrats.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#3 cmk

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Posted 29 August 2017 - 04:09 PM

The actual problem is the same one I and others have been pointing out for years -- the left constantly focuses on the top and leaves the bottom to the right, and the bottom is where the real control is.

This is the result of Republicans taking over towns and cities and states, and they have done it effectively unopposed.
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#4 JackD

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Posted 29 August 2017 - 05:23 PM

A democratic ad consultant is quoted in the TPM piece cited by LFC as saying that the Obama years were not an easy time for recruiting House candidates. I wonder if that's true all over the down ballot and, if so, why? I'm aware that the DNC under Obama was almost tunnel visioned in focusing on the Presidential campaigns but what about all the state party organizations? One would have thought after the disastrous 2010 midterms that there would have been a reboot but apparently not.

#5 Bact PhD

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Posted 29 August 2017 - 06:05 PM

View PostJackD, on 29 August 2017 - 05:23 PM, said:

A democratic ad consultant is quoted in the TPM piece cited by LFC as saying that the Obama years were not an easy time for recruiting House candidates. I wonder if that's true all over the down ballot and, if so, why? I'm aware that the DNC under Obama was almost tunnel visioned in focusing on the Presidential campaigns but what about all the state party organizations? One would have thought after the disastrous 2010 midterms that there would have been a reboot but apparently not.

I can't speak for across the board, even in my own split-personality state, but in my district, district line re-draws did a number on things. Taking it back to the early 'aughts, the City & County commissions were overwhelmingly Team Blue. However, with the surrounding countryside deep Red, the state org. pretty much conceded this district to Team Red -- the only candidate willing to run on the Dem side for several (at least 3 that I can recall off the top) cycles was a one-issue dude who snagged between 33 and 40%. In '08, '10, & '12 the (d) candidates were total no-names, got no better than 40%, and that high-water mark was in '08 on Obama's coattails. Last go, a candidate with some local name recognition ran -- and got just shy of 40%. I have no reason to believe 2018 will be any different.
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#6 LFC

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Posted 18 September 2017 - 01:09 PM

Interesting data point on how Democrats are betting prepared for 2018.

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The campaign arm of House Democrats has posted its highest off-year August fundraising haul ever, the group told NBC News.

While their Republican counterparts haven't yet released their August results, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has outraised Republicans each of the three previous months — a result Democrats say bodes well for their prospects of winning the House in the 2018 midterm elections.

"With the House in play, another record-breaking month of fundraising for the DCCC is a clear sign that the grassroots energy behind House Democrats is constantly growing stronger," said Tyler Law, a spokesman for the committee. "Given Speaker [Paul] Ryan's failure to govern with unified Republican control of Washington, it's understandable that vulnerable House Republicans are opting for retirement while we are recruiting incredible candidates deep into the map."


But this is a warning bell that the Democrats at a party level have to get organized, pick their positions, and defend them.

Quote

Notably, House Democrats' financial success comes as the Democrat National Committee has struggled with its own fundraising.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#7 golden_valley

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Posted 18 September 2017 - 01:54 PM

And a wild card for Dems...Sanders' fans putting up candidates against other Dems in Congressional districts. That will be a problem for incumbent Democrats.

#8 AnBr

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Posted 18 September 2017 - 09:01 PM

Sanders needs to eat shit and die. Fuck him and his bros.
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#9 LFC

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Posted 19 September 2017 - 08:59 AM

View PostAnBr, on 18 September 2017 - 09:01 PM, said:

Sanders needs to eat shit and die. Fuck him and his bros.

Sanders needs to remain an independent and keep his nose out of Democratic Party business. He has no place inside of the party, only partnering with it (i.e. caucusing with Dems). It's the path he chose ... until it was more convenient to leave it ... after which he went right back.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#10 LFC

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Posted 26 September 2017 - 05:29 PM

Bob Corker (R-TN) is done when his term is out.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#11 MSheridan

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Posted 26 September 2017 - 06:22 PM

View PostLFC, on 19 September 2017 - 08:59 AM, said:



Sanders needs to remain an independent and keep his nose out of Democratic Party business. He has no place inside of the party, only partnering with it (i.e. caucusing with Dems). It's the path he chose ... until it was more convenient to leave it ... after which he went right back.

I could not disagree more. Forget about whether you like Sanders or not or liked his campaign message or not. I'm not going to argue those points because I don't actually want to defend his campaign, which I thought myself was poorly run and poorly messaged. However, if he was going to run at all, Sanders did the right thing under the circumstances by running as a Democrat rather than third party. I hope any future alternative candidates follow the same path. Whether he ran as a Democrat because he wanted Democratic votes or because he has caucused with Democrats for his entire time in Congress and didn't want to enable a Republican win or both rationales together doesn't much matter. Do you think if he'd run third party he'd have won? I certainly don't. I also cannot see any way that Clinton would have been in a stronger position. It would have been Nader in 2000 or Perot in '92 all over again. We would never have forgiven him for it and I think we all know that.

#12 Progressive whisperer

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Posted 26 September 2017 - 07:09 PM

I suspect he's smart enough to know he had no chance as a third party (Jill Stein is probably smart enough to realize that, but it's a good grift). The problem is not that he ran, or tried to pull the party left, but the insistence that the party is "corrupt" and cheated him out of primary wins by - hey, look over there...

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#13 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 26 September 2017 - 07:11 PM

Per LFC's 29 August post:

The situation in Irvine is dangerous. With California's "jungle primaries" it's already happened that in one of the bluest districts in the USA, the only candidates on the final ballot were two Republicans because the large field of Democrats split most of the votes but none rising past third place. The two Republicans took first and second with a small (IIRC around 35%) combined share.

Yes, it's screwed up and (like a lot of things in CA) poorly considered. One hopes that these two (and obviously others) don't create the same situation next year -- splitting the primary votes and letting two Republicans have the seat effectively uncontested.
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Posted 26 September 2017 - 07:12 PM

View PostProgressive whisperer, on 26 September 2017 - 07:09 PM, said:

The problem is not that he ran, or tried to pull the party left, but the insistence that the party is "corrupt" and cheated him out of primary wins by - hey, look over there...

Well, that and trying to make "perfect at the expense of good" Party policy. I voted for McGovern in '72, and do not need a (another?) replay.
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#15 MSheridan

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Posted 26 September 2017 - 07:24 PM

View PostProgressive whisperer, on 26 September 2017 - 07:09 PM, said:

I suspect he's smart enough to know he had no chance as a third party (Jill Stein is probably smart enough to realize that, but it's a good grift). The problem is not that he ran, or tried to pull the party left, but the insistence that the party is "corrupt" and cheated him out of primary wins by - hey, look over there...

Perhaps you've read more widely than I on the left, as I haven't actually seen any interviews in which he's said that. In the last Sanders interview I did read (over at The Intercept, which I usually avoid like the plague), he appeared extremely careful to avoid sounding critical of his primary opposition, despite several leading questions encouraging him to do so.

#16 LFC

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 09:20 AM

View PostMSheridan, on 26 September 2017 - 07:24 PM, said:

Perhaps you've read more widely than I on the left, as I haven't actually seen any interviews in which he's said that. In the last Sanders interview I did read (over at The Intercept, which I usually avoid like the plague), he appeared extremely careful to avoid sounding critical of his primary opposition, despite several leading questions encouraging him to do so.

Two words; "rigged system." And no, they weren't uttered by Donald Trump. Bernie lost in a landslide and he pulled the same Trumpian stunt of casting suspicion on the process. That's a level of irresponsibility that can't be condoned.

Additionally his promises were unicorns and pixie dust shooting out of his ass. His numbers didn't even remotely work but Hillary's vastly more realistic policies didn't sparkle the same. While pulling to the left he simultaneously pulled away from reality towards fantasy. This is not remotely what the Democrats need. They have enough problems with purists who have about the same respect for reality as the Republicans.

And finally while pie in the skying he did nothing to help Democratic candidates running for other offices and appears to have done nothing to listen to their views. You can spin all the personal utopia you want but without a Congressional majority who backs you up, you're dead in the water. Donald Trump is learning that the hard way as we speak ... er, type.

I think Bernie's negatives were / are much higher than his positives to the Democratic Party.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#17 MSheridan

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 10:37 AM

We're starting to get into one of those conversations. That won't lead anywhere, especially as I think you are assuming opinions or positions on my part that I do not hold.

I started out for Sanders, yes. Certain positions held by Clinton really bothered me, especially in foreign policy, which I rank more highly than most voters in making my decisions. However, I switched and did end up voting for her in the primary after all because I ended up agreeing with a fair amount of your critique of Sen. Sanders. Quite a bit of his platform was too unrealistic and I did think his campaign didn't display nearly enough discipline and needed him to do much, much more than he ever did in setting a useful tone.

I also want to make clear that my disagreements with Clinton are not personal. I neither like nor dislike her on that level. It's quite possible I'd find it easier to befriend her than Bernie, given the opportunity.

But my past support for either candidate doesn't much affect my opinion of them now or my low opinion of how they both conducted their campaigns (his was worse). I don't recall whether Sanders himself ever used the words "corrupt" in reference to the primary. I know he's referred to the campaign finance system as corrupt (and Wall Street too--he likes the word) and I believe he HAS used the word "rigged" when talking about the Democratic primary. I didn't see it as helpful, under the circumstances. He's not pure as the driven snow himself. He and his campaign exploited the heck out of the made-to-be-exploited caucus system in those states that use caucuses. Regardless, it's true--the primary was rigged to favor the Establishment favorite. Saying so does NOT mean that I am asserting Sanders would and should have won had it not been. It does not mean that Hillary Clinton is a crook or that Sanders was robbed. It's just the way the system works and it doesn't have to involve becoming a fan of Bernie Sanders to say so.

#18 LFC

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 11:42 AM

View PostMSheridan, on 27 September 2017 - 10:37 AM, said:

We're starting to get into one of those conversations.

Well it's necessary if you want to know how babies are made. What? Oh. Different "those conversations."
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#19 LFC

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Posted 06 October 2017 - 09:43 AM

As if having a Constitution hating theocracy supporter running for the Senate in Alabama wasn't enough new crazy now we have a felon who bravely threatened a disabled reporter and who has now finished serving his jail sentence running for the House. He's running to the crazy side of the incumbent Republican so it will be interesting to see how well he does.

Quote

The election of a hotheaded former reality TV star as commander in chief has ushered in something of a moment for candidates who’d normally be written off.

Enter Michael Grimm. Or rather, re-enter.

After completing a federal prison term for tax fraud, the former Republican congressman, perhaps best known for threatening to throw a reporter off a Capitol Hill balcony and break him “like a boy,” is hoping to ride a wave of anti-establishment “#MAGA” anger to retake his seat representing New York’s 11th District. And he’s already gathering Donald Trump’s allies to his side.

Former Trump 2016 campaign adviser Michael Caputo told TPM he’s “signed on with great enthusiasm” to serve as Grimm’s communications adviser. Caputo believes Grimm’s the ideal candidate to beat incumbent Rep. Dan Donovan (R-NY), who Caputo cast as one of the anti-Trump Republicans holding the President’s agenda “captive.”

“The stage is pretty well set,” echoed Chris Grant, Grimm’s campaign adviser and a former chief of staff to Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY), the first member of Congress to back Trump’s presidential campaign. “You’ve got pro-Trump Republicans on one side, and pro-DC establishment swamp dwellers on the other. We look forward to that battle.”

As tidy as that narrative may be, it’s unclear how much it reflects reality: Donovan is a popular local figure who has voted with Trump some 89 percent of the time. It’s also unclear how much of a role anti-establishment figures like former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon will play—or how much sway those self-styled kingmakers actually have.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#20 LFC

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Posted 24 October 2017 - 02:47 PM

Jeff Flake is out.

Quote

Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ), who has been an outspoken of President Donald Trump, on Tuesday announced that he will not run for re-election.

“There may not be a place for a Republican like me in the current Republican climate or the current Republican Party,” Flake said in an interview with the Arizona Republic.

Flake said he has “no intention” of running for President.

“Here’s the bottom line: The path that I would have to travel to get the Republican nomination is a path I’m not willing to take, and that I can’t in good conscience take,” he said in the interview. “It would require me to believe in positions I don’t hold on such issues as trade and immigration and it would require me to condone behavior that I cannot condone.”

[snip]

In his announcement on the Senate floor, Flake was even more outspoken with his criticism of the political moment and Trump by name.

He criticized the “coarseness of our leadership” and the “regular and casual undermining of our democratic norms and ideals.”

“When the next generation asks us, ‘Why didn’t you do something? Why didn’t you speak up?’ What are we going to say? Mr. President, I rise today to say, enough,” Flake said. “We have fooled ourselves long enough that a pivot to governing is right around the corner, a return to civility and stability right behind it. We know better than that. By now we all know better than that.”

He criticized the “coarseness of our leadership” and the “regular and casual undermining of our democratic norms and ideals.”

“We must stop pretending that the conduct of some in our executive branch are normal. They are not normal. Reckless, outrageous and undignified behavior has been excused as ‘telling it like it is’ when it is actually just reckless, outrageous, and undignified,” Flake said. “And when such behavior emanates from the top of our government, it is something else. It is dangerous to a democracy.”

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer





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