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Trump on Trade ... Stupidity and Childish Continue


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#481 LFC

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Posted 27 August 2019 - 03:44 PM

 Traveler, on 27 August 2019 - 03:18 PM, said:

Fact is, we can hurt China more than they can hurt us if it goes all out. Too bad the infant in chief cannot manage the negotiations and moves sensibly.

I suspect this is changing China's strategy on their relationship with us bigly. If a single U.S. president can waltz in and exert this much force at whim, and one of two political parties supplying future presidents is becoming increasingly unstable making it quite possible for a repeat, then our current relationship is a huge risk to them. Yes we are a profit center too but the risk/reward calculus has now skewed wildly towards risk thanks to Trump. They may be deciding to take some hits today for safety from U.S. pressure tomorrow. You can see how China's movement into South America, Africa, and the Belt & Road initiative are going to become more key to their financial security than us. Who knows if they'll be able to pull it all off (we've discussed the Belt & Road problems before) but Trump's instability may have left them little choice.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

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""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#482 J-CA

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Posted 27 August 2019 - 04:16 PM

 Traveler, on 27 August 2019 - 03:18 PM, said:

[China has] all the infrastructure they need for maximum productivity.
I don't think this is remotely true, and it seems like a claim that would be very hard to produce convincing evidence for.
Seems like it is pretty trivial to cite the case of Beijing traffic jams to demonstrate that there are still beneficial infrastructure projects to execute in the country.
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#483 Traveler

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Posted 27 August 2019 - 06:48 PM

I said infrastructure WASNT needed. As usual, I extrapolate from a limited dataset. I am talking about the ability to get around. China's roads and HSR are no joke. Massive people movers. And very reliable and smooth. Their have 5 lanes to our 2. So jams are acceptable for the most part. Airports very modern. Compared to the US its a joke. We are limping along with half century old bridges. The better examples.
Did I imply that more infrastructure would be useful?
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#484 J-CA

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Posted 27 August 2019 - 09:12 PM

 Traveler, on 27 August 2019 - 06:48 PM, said:

I said infrastructure WASNT needed. As usual, I extrapolate from a limited dataset. I am talking about the ability to get around. China's roads and HSR are no joke. Massive people movers. And very reliable and smooth. Their have 5 lanes to our 2. So jams are acceptable for the most part. Airports very modern. Compared to the US its a joke. We are limping along with half century old bridges. The better examples.
Did I imply that more infrastructure would be useful?
I was disagreeing exactly with your assertion that China doesn't need more infrastructure to increase productivity. There is lots of infrasture China can build to increase productivity, I cited the traffic jams but an even better example is the air pollution, would you contend that air pollution in major centres in China are not harmful to productivity? And then by extension that infrastructure that would reduce air pollution wouldn't increase productivity?
China is over-invested in coal infrastructure too, the factories make money while the government-subsidized coal plants take a loss and the cities are polluted - strikes me as an area where there are efficiencies to be found.. though infrastructure!

The notion that the beauty of airports observed through air travel are a significant parts of the contribution infrastructure makes to productivity is an unfortunately common misconception, though they are frequently symbols of national pride - it was very important to China that Hong Kong's new airport not be opened before the handover for good reasons, but it had little to do with productivity!
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#485 Rich T Bikkies

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Posted 28 August 2019 - 02:59 AM

 Traveler, on 27 August 2019 - 03:18 PM, said:

Fact is, we can hurt China more than they can hurt us if it goes all out. Too bad the infant in chief cannot manage the negotiations and moves sensibly.

"Speak softly and carry a big stick". Speak softly? Fat chance! Even if the pussy grabber dropped dead 15 mins from now, fat chance!
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#486 Traveler

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Posted 28 August 2019 - 07:54 AM

J-CA: Air pollution infrastructure? The only centralized candidate for that is adding scrubbers to every coal plant and factory (which have their own plants that are generally very inefficient). An excellent idea that. China burns so much coal that rainfall nitrogen is over 10 mg/L (compare to ~1 in the US). That would help everyone on earth. But they are still building dirty coal plants at an unsustainable clip. Another avenue is more renewables, where China is indeed spending a ton. A dispersed approach is via more electric cars. Where they also lead the way. But they already have HSR which reduce transport emissions.

So unless every coal plant is retrofitted, I don't see air pollution infrastructure making much difference in air quality. They have a long way to go. I don't know the cost/benefit of this though. Seems like it would have a limited effect from a stimulus standpoint, but maybe worth a try. Would be great to see, but up to now, the mantra is develop full speed ahead and damn the consequences.

A better option is infrastructure spending for water quality. There you have much more of a capital investment that employs construction trades, which cycles right back into the economy. $50m of the designs I did in 2016-2017 are up and running already. They treat 6 sq.km. of urban runoff. At $8m per sq.km., the math for all of China's cities is formidable indeed. They have $30b allocated annually, but that is still a drop in the bucket (3,750 sq.km./y), compared to the 139,398 sq.km. just in the coastal zone. So yes, that they could ramp up. But again, this environmental infrastructure has little short term productivity benefit. Huge benefits later in terms of improved health and fewer cancer cases, which is another problem looming for China's aging demographics.

But I don't see any of these efforts having a short term effect on productivity, which was the topic.

Edited by Traveler, 28 August 2019 - 09:21 AM.

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#487 J-CA

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Posted 28 August 2019 - 01:30 PM

 Traveler, on 28 August 2019 - 07:54 AM, said:

But I don't see any of these efforts having a short term effect on productivity, which was the topic.
The short-term qualifier is new.
Your initial statement was quite clear:

 Traveler, on 27 August 2019 - 03:18 PM, said:

Throwing more money at infrastructure is simply make work. They have all the infrastructure they need for maximum productivity.
If there is infrastructure out there that will improve productivity, short or long term, then that work is not "simply make work" it is an investment.
I don't know what short term has to do with your point when your point seemed to be that China's only way to prop their economy up was wasting money on unnecessary infrastructure when.. you readily concede that they have infrastructure they could build that would be useful! (And China is spending a lot on "green infrastructure" - which is both necessary and good and not likely to be a waste of money.)
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#488 Traveler

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Posted 28 August 2019 - 02:17 PM

Sorry if i moved the goalposts. I was thinking of short term productivity all along as its the current trade war that is hammering China. Air and water pollution wont bite bigly for another decade or so as folks start to get cancer. The benefits of air pollution controls will take decades. Not like a new freeway which is used as soon as its completed. Stormwater stuff is definitely a good thing, but $30b in a $20t economy is not much stimulus.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
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#489 J-CA

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Posted 28 August 2019 - 02:27 PM

 Traveler, on 28 August 2019 - 02:17 PM, said:

Sorry if i moved the goalposts. I was thinking of short term productivity all along as its the current trade war that is hammering China. Air and water pollution wont bite bigly for another decade or so as folks start to get cancer. The benefits of air pollution controls will take decades. Not like a new freeway which is used as soon as its completed. Stormwater stuff is definitely a good thing, but $30b in a $20t economy is not much stimulus.
Actually air pollution in particular has immediate productivity impacts, take a look at this research on textile workers in China:
https://www.fastcomp...bad-at-your-job

Quote

In both factories–one in Henan, and one in Jiangsu–levels of PM2.5 varied radically each day, but were generally high. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency sets the “safe” level of PM2.5 at 12 micrograms per cubic meter, and in one factory, pollution levels were an average of seven times that, at 85 micrograms per cubic meter.
While one day alone of higher-than-average PM2.5 levels may not lead to a noticeable drop in productivity, Liu says that consistent exposure over time will. His team found that sustained exposure to high pollution levels (at least 10 micrograms per cubic meter over the “safe” limit) for 25 days decreases worker productivity by 1%. “Unlike the impact on health, the impact on labor productivity is very subtle,” Liu says. “Most managers who we have interviewed did not realize that air pollution can have a negative impact on their workers’ productivity.”

And of course the long-term impacts on the smaller cohort of Chinese expected to support their parents rolling through the demographics is almost certainly something that the technocrats in the Chinese government are worried about.

ETA: Particulate air pollution and lead abatement are both fascinating areas of research and things that make you really question to morals of anyone that wants to loosen restrictions on these pollutants (read: Republicans).
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#490 LFC

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Posted 30 August 2019 - 11:08 AM

Trump is now blaming company management in addition to the Fed for the fallout of his disastrous tariff policy. It's always somebody else's fault with him.

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Fox Business Network host Stuart Varney, a frequent defender of Donald Trump, on Friday couldn’t help but wonder why the president was lashing out at U.S. companies that have been harmed by his trade war.

During his program, Varney read a tweet from Trump, in which the president said: “If the Fed would cut, we would have one of the biggest Stock Market increases in a long time. Badly run and weak companies are smartly blaming these small Tariffs instead of themselves for bad management…and who can really blame them for doing that? Excuses!”

“Not quite sure where the president is going with this one,” Varney remarked. “But he wants the Fed to lower rates — bottom line.”

Trump on Friday morning repeatedly lashed out at the Federal Reserve.

“The Euro is dropping against the Dollar ‘like crazy,’ giving them a big export and manufacturing advantage…and the Fed does NOTHING! Our Dollar is now the strongest in history. Sounds good, doesn’t it? Except to those (manufacturers) that make product for sale outside the U.S.,” he tweeted.

“….We don’t have a Tariff problem (we are reigning in bad and/or unfair players), we have a Fed problem. They don’t have a clue!” Trump added.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#491 LFC

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Posted 04 September 2019 - 03:25 PM

A mix of reality and fantasy as only Trump can provide.

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President Donald Trump on Wednesday acknowledged that his trade war with China has harmed the economy, as he told reporters that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would be in a much stronger position were it not for his tariffs on Chinese goods.

“Let me tell you, if I wanted to do nothing with China, our stock market, our stock market would be 10,000 points higher than it is right now but somebody had to do this,” the president told reporters, according to Bloomberg. “It was out of control and they were out of control.”

Trump went on to express optimism that China wanted to make a trade deal with him but also seemed to indicate that he’d be just as happy to let the trade war continue.

“We’ll see what happens, if they want to make a deal, they’ll make a deal,” he said. “If they don’t want to make a deal, that’s fine.”

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#492 golden_valley

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Posted 04 September 2019 - 05:32 PM

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“We’ll see what happens, if they want to make a deal, they’ll make a deal,” he said. “If they don’t want to make a deal, that’s fine.”

That's fine for who?

#493 LFC

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 05:17 PM

Trump is backpedaling on his latest round of tariffs. He's practicing foreign policy by poll numbers.

Quote

President Donald Trump’s trade war with China is becoming a political liability, hurting key industries and worrying economists about a looming recession.

On Wednesday, Moody’s Analytics estimated that Trump’s trade war has killed 300,000 U.S. jobs. According to an estimate by Yahoo Finance, Trump’s tariffs cost the U.S. economy 6.8 billion in July. According to Politico, Trump’s team is scrambling to contain the damage caused by the president’s tariffs by pushing to delay the onset of the next ones.

“President Donald Trump’s top advisers are rushing to find an escape hatch for a series of tariff increases in the coming months, worried about the potential for further economic damage,” Politico writes. “Many of the president’s top economic officials are trying to resurrect the terms they previously were negotiating with China, a deal officials said was “90 percent” done before a sudden impasse this summer, according to a person familiar with the discussions.”

Senior officials are reportedly trying to delay the onset of the next set of tariffs. The tariffs are scheduled to go into effect in October. But there’s talk of pushing them back until December, reports Politico. Trump has not approved the delay.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#494 LFC

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 05:44 PM

Trump just can't stop himself from lying about things that are going wrong.

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CNN’s Brianna Keilar made Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro squirm on Thursday after she asked him for evidence to back up President Donald Trump’s claim that China will soon start buying American agricultural products again.

During an interview, Keilar asked Navarro to substantiate a Trump tweet in which the president wrote that “it is expected that China will be buying large amounts of our agricultural products.”

After reading the president’s tweet aloud, Keilar asked Navarro whether American farmers “should be expecting big orders from China soon.”

Navarro tried to deflect and say that the Trump administration has always been very supportive of U.S. farmers, but Keilar again pressed him on whether farmers should expect China to resume buying their goods.

“President Trump tweeted that there will be orders,” Navarro replied. “Let’s see if the Chinese fulfill their commitments. As you know, the problem that we’ve always had with the Chinese is they don’t always honor their commitments.”

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#495 AnBr

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Posted 11 October 2019 - 07:21 PM

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“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

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Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


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On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


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— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937





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