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Unraveling the Iran Deal (or How to Put Iran's Nuclear Program Into Overdrive)


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#21 LFC

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 12:15 PM

Finally here's how the EU sees it. I'm sure Russia and China are in no hell-fired rush to change it either.

Quote

European Union foreign ministers are urging the U.S. Congress to safeguard the Iran nuclear agreement after President Donald Trump withdrew his support for the deal.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said in Luxembourg on Monday that “we hope Congress will not call this agreement into question.”

Dutch counterpart Bert Koenders said the agreement concerns “the safety of the world. I hope also that the U.S. Congress will realize this and take the right decisions.”

Trump “decertified” the deal Friday and directed Congress to make it more stringent.

Belgium’s foreign minister, Didier Reynders, said that walking away would compromise trust in any future negotiations on North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.

He said: “We must be able to demonstrate that when a nuclear agreement has been concluded that we respect it.”

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#22 golden_valley

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 01:42 PM

As as far as Trump and his supporters are concerned he's done all he can to back the US out of the deal. If Congress doesn't do as "directed" they won't bother to know that a president can't "direct" Congress to do anything, but they will be quite happy to blame Congress for not doing it. As to the other parties to the agreement...go to H#&*...is the default response.

#23 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 07:02 AM

View PostLFC, on 16 October 2017 - 12:10 PM, said:

TPM's covering Trump's f***-up on this issue. Here's his take on Trump's incoherence on what he actually wants. If you read the whole thing he compares Trump's floundering and chest thumping to the utterly failed policy of George W. towards North Korea.

Which, let us recall, convinced NK to take its present course towards nuclear weaponry and ICBMs: they realized that the USA couldn't be counted on to keep its agreements.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#24 LFC

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 09:45 AM

View Postgolden_valley, on 16 October 2017 - 01:42 PM, said:

As as far as Trump and his supporters are concerned he's done all he can to back the US out of the deal. If Congress doesn't do as "directed" they won't bother to know that a president can't "direct" Congress to do anything, but they will be quite happy to blame Congress for not doing it. As to the other parties to the agreement...go to H#&*...is the default response.

It's pure Trump. He whines that he hates whatever is in place (usually created by Obama), says he'll fix it, and then tells Congress to fix it with no clue about what he wants, just that he wants something amazing. I have no doubts that this is how Trump (who has to be smart if he has all that money) operated his business for decades. He doesn't know shit but is good at yelling at people to make things work and then he takes credit for making them work. He's the ultimate worthless CEO right out of Dilbert.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#25 LFC

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 10:58 AM

Oh, Nikki. Nikki, Nikki, Nikki. Are you now following Sarah Huckabee's casual lying ways?

Quote

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley says that President Donald Trump is strengthening his ability to resolve the North Korea nuclear crisis by threatening to abandon the nuclear deal with Iran.

Haley is defending Trump’s decision not to certify Iran’s compliance with the deal. Trump’s critics argue he’s undermining U.S. credibility and options for diplomacy because North Korea will determine the U.S. doesn’t honor its commitments.

But Haley says that argument is “just wrong.” She says it’s the opposite. Haley says failing to fix the 2015 deal with Iran would send the message that the United States “can be bought by a bad deal” that doesn’t actually eliminate the nuclear threat.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#26 LFC

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Posted 19 October 2017 - 01:48 PM

Nice job, Trump. How long before Bibi convinces you to go in with guns blazing?

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Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) said on Thursday its ballistic missile programme would accelerate despite U.S. and European Union pressure to suspend it, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.

In a significant U.S. policy shift on Oct. 13, President Donald Trump disavowed Iran’s compliance with a landmark 2015 nuclear deal and launched a more aggressive approach to the Islamic Republic over its missile development activity.

“Iran’s ballistic missile programme will expand and it will continue with more speed in reaction to Trump’s hostile approach towards this revolutionary organisation (the Guards),” the IRGC said in a statement published by Tasnim.

The Trump administration has imposed new unilateral sanctions aimed at impairing Iran’s missile programme. It has called on Tehran not to develop missiles capable of delivering nuclear bombs. Iran says it has no such plans.

Tehran has repeatedly pledged to continue what it calls a defensive missile capability in defiance of Western criticism.

“Trump’s anxiety and trembling voice in his speech was a sign of beginning of the era of failure for America’s hegemony,” Tasnim quoted IRGC chief commander Mohammad Ali Jafari as saying. “Boosting Iran’s defence power remains our top priority.”

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#27 LFC

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Posted 02 January 2018 - 10:19 PM

The Iran nuclear deal falls apart in 11 days if Trump does nothing, something he's actually qualified to do. Despite massive pressure back in October by European nations there's not so much of a call nowadays. I think they've pretty much given up on doing anything sane and reasonable with Trump. There goes the global influence of the U.S. And if Iran gets nuclear weapons it will be Trump's fault as well as the fault of the chest thumping, poo flinging Republicans who haven't lifted a finger to keep things intact.

Quote

Starting on January 13, a week from Saturday, Trump will face a deadline over reimposing economic sanctions that the U.S. agreed to lift under the 2015 nuclear deal. Despite the agreement, those sanctions have remained in place, technically; it’s just that president Obama and, thus far, Trump, periodically agree not to enforce them, keeping the deal alive.

In other words, as unrest in Iran spreads, Trump has an imminent opportunity to kill the Iran nuclear deal he despises, all by doing nothing.

And as of right now, there’s no wave of concerted allied diplomacy aimed at keeping him in, The Daily Beast has learned.

That’s in marked contrast to the last time Trump brought the U.S. to the precipice of withdrawing from the Iran deal was October, when he “decertified” Iranian compliance with the deal, even though the International Atomic Agency has consistently found Iran to live up to its obligations under what’s formally called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Before he did, the White House and the State Department endured a full-court press from the U.S.’ traditional European allies to save the deal.

After the decertification, Britain, France and Germany warned Trump in a joint statement against taking “any steps that might undermine” the agreement with Iran, formally known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, “such as re-imposing sanctions on Iran lifted under the agreement.”

But the Europeans are relatively silent this time. “We’re not pressing the White House, which is aware of our position,” a senior European diplomat told The Daily Beast.

Another European diplomat from a different country confirmed the lack of a concerted pressure campaign, saying the Trump administration and Congress knows full well the Europeans want the agreement to remain intact. This second diplomat said they remain “concerned by the possible implications” of Washington reneging on the nuclear deal.

As Politico observed, if Trump declines to waive sanctions, the implications for the deal’s future are far greater than any decertification. (After all, the whole American “certification” concept was a product of U.S. legislation, not the deal itself.) The Iranians will be able to claim that the nuclear deal is dead, that Americans killed it and that it ought to no longer be subject to the negotiated restraints on its nuclear program.

“No question about it, we would be in material noncompliance” if the U.S. sanctions regime returns, said Jarret Blanc, who during the Obama administration was the State Department official in charge of overseeing the American end of the deal.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#28 Progressive whisperer

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Posted 03 January 2018 - 07:14 AM

And/or the rest of the world says “F... You” very loudly to Dump, works around the sanctions (finding alternatives/cutting out U.S. financials and other countries). Poof, the ability of the U.S. to influence other countries short of bombing or invading takes a serious hit.

Of course the GOP these days thinks the threat of bombing or invading is the only true sign of power, so why would they care? Oh yeah, with that decline in influence would also come a decline in our banking and markets?


Trump delenda est.
GOP delenda est.
Resist!

#29 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 03 January 2018 - 08:11 AM

The US unilaterally imposing sanctions won't hurt Iran nearly as much as it will the USA. The only reason that those sanctions worked was because they were widely supported. Everything that we did was only in support of Europe (and some others.)
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#30 LFC

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Posted 03 January 2018 - 10:22 AM

I suspect that the European nations have already had long discussions and decided to help Iran move into the 21st (well, 20th) century which will render Trump's sanctions virtually useless. European leaders certainly seem to have decided that the U.S. under Donald Trump is not worth the effort to even attempt working on sane policy. Diplomacy may be even further out of reach. Iran will either join the world with Europe, rush to get nukes to safeguard themselves from an unstable U.S. President, or both.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#31 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 03 January 2018 - 11:42 AM

Europe doesn't want a nuclear Iran -- not least because they're in range. Far better to enter into a deal where Iran gets nuclear power and has strong incentives to not militarize them. Don't be surprised to see a mutual-aid agreement guaranteeing aid to Iran in the case of attacks by "hostile powers" (US and Israel.)
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#32 golden_valley

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Posted 03 January 2018 - 02:06 PM

Kim Jung Un is probably pretty interested in the Iranian deal. He'll see what value there is or isn't in a deal with the US so long as Trump is president.

#33 Progressive whisperer

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Posted 03 January 2018 - 03:03 PM

View Postgolden_valley, on 03 January 2018 - 02:06 PM, said:

Kim Jung Un is probably pretty interested in the Iranian deal. He'll see what value there is or isn't in a deal with the US so long as Trump is president.

Ohh, ohh, I got that answer - zilch. Nada. Zip.

Trump delenda est.
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Resist!

#34 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 03 January 2018 - 03:42 PM

View PostProgressive whisperer, on 03 January 2018 - 03:03 PM, said:

Ohh, ohh, I got that answer - zilch. Nada. Zip.

No, I don't think that's accurate. Remember, per Trump, contracts (or agreements) are what you use against your partners.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#35 LFC

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Posted 23 January 2018 - 10:22 AM

Pence confirms that Trump is still planning on f***ing up the deal. F***ing children, both of them.

Quote

Vice President Mike Pence reiterated to Israeli leaders on Tuesday that the Trump administration plans to pull out of the landmark 2015 Iran nuclear deal unless the pact is amended.

The remarks came as Pence wrapped up his visit to Israel. On Monday, he repeatedly referred to Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, speaking alongside Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He also used a high-profile speech to the parliament to announce plans to speed up the timing of the opening of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem — moving it from Tel Aviv — by the end of 2019.

On Tuesday, Pence met with Israeli President Reuven Rivlin and vowed the United States would counter the Iranian nuclear threat. He then headed to the most emotional part of his visit — a tribute to the Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial and a visit to the Western Wall. He was to depart the Holy Land later in the day.

Rivlin praised Pence’s speech to parliament and his role in pushing for the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

“You are a mensch,” Rivlin told a smiling Pence.

Pence also repeated the administration’s plan to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal, which has been vociferously opposed by Israel, unless the pact is enforced and amended. He noted U.S. efforts to gain support from European allies to address what he described as flawed parts of the agreement, adding that President Donald Trump “has made clear” the U.S. will leave the nuclear deal if that doesn’t happen.

“We are sending a signal to our European allies that the time has come for changes in the Iran nuclear deal,” Pence said, sitting alongside Rivlin. “Punitive sanctions will be available for many years to come to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and you have our commitment to work closely with our allies around the world to achieve that.”


Oooooh, Mikey, Mikey, Mikey. Europe has long since grasped that you and your boss are childish assholes. It didn't help that the Child In Chief went out of his way to insult them over the past year either. They're not going to back you on this. They, Russia, and China will (delicately) tell you to go pound sand. You are delusional if you think otherwise.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#36 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 23 January 2018 - 11:03 AM

I don't think they've grasped the fact that the existing arrangement is only effective if the alternative is a broad, nearly universal trade embargo. The USA by itself can't do anything. Seriously, what do we have that Iran wants and can't get elsewhere?
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#37 golden_valley

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Posted 23 January 2018 - 01:30 PM

View PostD. C. Sessions, on 23 January 2018 - 11:03 AM, said:

I don't think they've grasped the fact that the existing arrangement is only effective if the alternative is a broad, nearly universal trade embargo. The USA by itself can't do anything. Seriously, what do we have that Iran wants and can't get elsewhere?

Trump's worldview is narrow. There is only the US and Iran. Two businesses that might or might not do a deal. The idea that other countries are involved or should be involved in order to accomplish an objective does not fit into his noggin.

#38 LFC

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Posted 23 January 2018 - 01:36 PM

View PostD. C. Sessions, on 23 January 2018 - 11:03 AM, said:

I don't think they've grasped the fact that the existing arrangement is only effective if the alternative is a broad, nearly universal trade embargo. The USA by itself can't do anything. Seriously, what do we have that Iran wants and can't get elsewhere?

We still have power in the banking and financial markets of the world. The problem is that we had that power not just because of dollars but because we were a big, relatively stable force in the world. Trump is changing the calculus of that assumption for all other nations. And you can sure as hell bet that Russia and China, key partners in the Iran deal, don't give a flying f*** what we do Trump does. He believes he can run roughshod across everybody in the world. Reality is going to kick him in the nuts on this one.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#39 Traveler

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Posted 23 January 2018 - 06:36 PM

It aint gonna happen. His controllers will see to that.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#40 LFC

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Posted 23 January 2018 - 06:55 PM

View PostTraveler, on 23 January 2018 - 06:36 PM, said:

It aint gonna happen. His controllers will see to that.

Do you mean "adults in the room" like John Kelly? Or maybe Stephen Miller?
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer





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