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So what about this Brexit thing?


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#381 HockeyDon

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 03:59 PM

Wow. Some talking head on NPR this morning was talking about how if the vote was 10-20 against, which is what his insider knowledge was saying, then perhaps May could go back to Brussels for further negotiation.

Seems his estimate was a little off.
Well, fuck.

How can I be expected to distinguish BS from reality when so much of my reality is utter BS?!

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#382 LFC

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 04:28 PM

View Postgolden_valley, on 15 January 2019 - 03:55 PM, said:

Brexit deal goes down 432-to-202. No confidence voted scheduled. Not sure why this is May's fault. Seems like the fundamental problem was the electorate getting a "should we stay or should we go" initiative that had no specific plan of how to accomplish it. Now what?

She was always going to be the fall guy for this. The major Brexiteers told everybody they'd separate and unicorns would fly over Britain shitting gold and farting pixy dust. Reality is here and they need to blame somebody so she's it. It's no different than the assholes screeching how the Iran deal could have been "so much better." I suspect Britain will have a hard Brexit and the Brexiteers will blame it all on the EU for not giving them exactly what they wanted which was all of the benefits with none of the responsibilities. Perhaps panic will set it and there will be another separation vote.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#383 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 05:03 PM

View Postgolden_valley, on 15 January 2019 - 03:55 PM, said:

Not sure why this is May's fault.

She had a long list of options to make this something other than "my way or nothing at all." At every turn she raised the stakes rather than do damage control. Just as a fer-instance, all of the evidence that the plebiscite had been misrepresented, numbers cooked, etc. would have let her call another -- which, polls say, would have failed overwhelmingly. You want to save face, Madam May? Bow to the will of the people. Or call a vote in Parliament on whether to proceed or call it off, same story.

Instead, there were months of secret meetings to come up with something that strongly resembled a shit sandwich as the realization sank in that Britain was about to be isolated from the world with no plan to reconnect. And that was the only outcome on offer.

Madam, head on back to Downing Street and do the honourable thing. Have some consideration for the cleaning staff and use the bath.
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#384 Rich T Bikkies

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 05:26 PM

Losing by 230. Worse than anyone predicted.

There's going to be no deal. For how can negotiations restart with a clean sheet when we're leaving in March? That means only Leave with No Deal, or Remain.

As the Government is being forced, stage by stage, to publish contingency plans for Brexit with No Deal, buyer's remorse is snowballing. Remain now looks very possible, but still far too short of probable.

But whichever it is, there will be a very large number of very angry losers. This country may be an unpleasant place to live for the next ten years.
Reality is a hallucination caused by alcohol deprivation.

Only Satan can rebuke sin. The righteous don't know enough.

God is not dead. He was merely voted out of office.

You can do anything with anybody if you just save them the trouble of thinking.

#385 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 05:47 PM

Rich, I suppose that once the State Department is up and running again they might accept asylum petitions from Britain as long as the petitioners aren't dark-skinned.
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#386 Rich T Bikkies

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 12:49 AM

Not keen on the idea. I'm a British Quaker, and could well have a dossier at MI5 as a peace campaigner (= supporter of terrorism). They've probably passed a list to DHS (Kirstjen Nielsen aka Hard-Hearted Hannah), and I'll be intercepted at the airport and into the slammer without my feet touching the ground.

O tempora! O mores!

No, I'll:

Quote

Be sure to keep a hold of Nurse
For fear of finding something worse

Don't any of you mention Venezuela.
Reality is a hallucination caused by alcohol deprivation.

Only Satan can rebuke sin. The righteous don't know enough.

God is not dead. He was merely voted out of office.

You can do anything with anybody if you just save them the trouble of thinking.

#387 Rich T Bikkies

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 03:21 AM

The motion of no confidence in the Government will be presented today and voted on at 1900 GMT. It has a very small chance of passing, but it's purely a tactical move. The main thing (for me, anyway) is that one will be able to estimate possible support for a cross-party alliance in the Commons to wrest control of the Brexit process from the Tory Government—and, I hope, stop Brexit altogether.

I recall posting earlier in this thread that this last was my wild-eyed dream destination to which there was no feasible route. I'm amazed it's now being frequently mentioned by pundits as a scenario! But of course there is now only one other scenario: No-deal Brexit.
Reality is a hallucination caused by alcohol deprivation.

Only Satan can rebuke sin. The righteous don't know enough.

God is not dead. He was merely voted out of office.

You can do anything with anybody if you just save them the trouble of thinking.

#388 George Rowell

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 05:57 AM

View PostRich T Bikkies, on 16 January 2019 - 03:21 AM, said:

The motion of no confidence in the Government will be presented today and voted on at 1900 GMT. It has a very small chance of passing, but it's purely a tactical move. The main thing (for me, anyway) is that one will be able to estimate possible support for a cross-party alliance in the Commons to wrest control of the Brexit process from the Tory Government—and, I hope, stop Brexit altogether.

I recall posting earlier in this thread that this last was my wild-eyed dream destination to which there was no feasible route. I'm amazed it's now being frequently mentioned by pundits as a scenario! But of course there is now only one other scenario: No-deal Brexit.
May has handled it so badly one explanation is she wants it to fail - maybe not, she cannot be that good an actor can she? Deducing Tory motives in this is like reading tea leaves.
A doctor knows a little about a lot. A specialist knows a lot about a little. In time the doctor knows less and less about more and more and the specialist knows more and more about less and less until ultimately the doctor knows nothing about everything and the specialist knows everything about nothing.

#389 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 07:28 AM

View PostGeorge Rowell, on 16 January 2019 - 05:57 AM, said:

May has handled it so badly one explanation is she wants it to fail - maybe not, she cannot be that good an actor can she? Deducing Tory motives in this is like reading tea leaves.

Tea leaves at least have a long track record of occasional success.
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#390 LFC

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 10:07 AM

I'm looking for TRS opinions on Theresa May's performance. From what I had read (but I haven't gone as in-depth as some of you) I thought she basically got as good of a deal as the EU was going to allow and that was never going to be good enough for the Brexiteers who sold their position using copious piles of bullshit. That left her to take the fall for the inevitable. Some of you commenting above, however, seem to think that she botched the Brexit negotiations / implementation badly as well. I'm wondering what you see as her failures as compared to the unrealistic expectations given to the voters by the (now magically invisible) Brexiteers.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#391 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 10:25 AM

View PostLFC, on 16 January 2019 - 10:07 AM, said:

I'm wondering what you see as her failures as compared to the unrealistic expectations given to the voters by the (now magically invisible) Brexiteers.

In a word, dishonesty. Yes, she was handed a shit sandwich, but she didn't have to pretend it was anything else. Yes, the Brexiteers lied -- and she doubled down on the lies. Yes, she wasn't going to get anything better than she did, but she hid just how bad that was for more than a year -- which left her country, supposedly her prime responsibility, with very little time to either prepare for the reality of exit or to decide to remain (and I suspect that last was her principal objective.)

Yes, it's possible for a deluded halfwit to be elected to high office. Perhaps she simply never grasped the true horror that Brexit was bound to yield. What can we say that that's her best excuse, with the alternative that she actually intended for her country, her responsibility, to suffer the avoidable harm that looks to be her legacy?
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#392 J-CA

    Probably in one of my drunken stupors..

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 11:22 AM

I think May was dealt a bad hand and she was playing it the best she could, did she make the optimal moves? I doubt it, but I don't she did much of anything obviously wrong, look at her circumstances:
1. The DUP and about 1/3 of her caucus are militantly pro-Brexit and fundamentally dishonest about their support for a realistic negotiated Brexit, they don't actually care about the consequences because their political fortunes are tied to a hard Brexit.
2. The optimal electoral outcome for the SNP is hard Brexit because it immediately puts Scottish independence back on the political radar, a winning issue for them, and likely to success next time. The only acceptable policy outcome for them is Remain
3. Labour's main constituencies are all split on Brexit, Corbyn's best political move is to remain ambiguous on the issue and complain that May is doing it wrong without saying what he would do and without offering any votes - just allow space for those of his MPs that wish to stake out a clear position for electoral reasons to do so.
4. Some, I don't know how many, of the Conservative caucus is inclined towards remain and will feel that the rejection of a compromise deal is most likely to lead to an abandonment of the whole thing, either before hard Brexit or soon after.

The only gambit in this circumstance, as I see it, is to push everyone to the brink and have the non-SNP committed Remainers join the soft-Brexit cohort at the last minute for the good of the country and accept this deal (maybe you get lucky and snag a few SNP votes, but unlikely). She could have tabled something earlier but all that would have done is damaged her negotiating position with the EU - because in all this the EU is being a very, very nice partner. The EU has every incentive to go for a hard Brexit if they do believe that it will really hurt the party leaving the union (alternatively if they think it is mostly a bluff then they've got a bit of a mess on their hands now, don't they?)

May's problem was that the politics are aligned against her only real option as a course of action, and preparing well for hard Brexit simply would have made the politics of the situation worse, it would have made hard Brexit inevitable. And let's not forget she did win an election on a negotiated exit, not by much, but she won it. And whatever happens in the next few months the framework for a negotiated exit is agreed to by the EU at this point, there is no reason why all parties can't return to it at any time.
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#393 George Rowell

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 11:44 AM

I am still undecided if Tory head office really wants to be in or out of the EU. A lot of this is noise. To see what they really want is to follow the money and that is not easy. Then again there is US pressure : how much that influences Tory decisions is anybodies guess.
A doctor knows a little about a lot. A specialist knows a lot about a little. In time the doctor knows less and less about more and more and the specialist knows more and more about less and less until ultimately the doctor knows nothing about everything and the specialist knows everything about nothing.

#394 LFC

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 12:01 PM

View PostJ-CA, on 16 January 2019 - 11:22 AM, said:

The only gambit in this circumstance, as I see it, is to push everyone to the brink and have the non-SNP committed Remainers join the soft-Brexit cohort at the last minute for the good of the country and accept this deal (maybe you get lucky and snag a few SNP votes, but unlikely). She could have tabled something earlier but all that would have done is damaged her negotiating position with the EU - because in all this the EU is being a very, very nice partner. The EU has every incentive to go for a hard Brexit if they do believe that it will really hurt the party leaving the union (alternatively if they think it is mostly a bluff then they've got a bit of a mess on their hands now, don't they?)

I don't understand that last part. If Britain was mostly bluffing about a hard Brexit wouldn't they just end up either running off the cliff they never wanted to run off of or having to very publicly fold? I would expect that this would act as a warning to other nations that might be considering the same course of action. I don't understand the downside to the EU.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#395 J-CA

    Probably in one of my drunken stupors..

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 02:45 PM

View PostLFC, on 16 January 2019 - 12:01 PM, said:

I don't understand that last part. If Britain was mostly bluffing about a hard Brexit wouldn't they just end up either running off the cliff they never wanted to run off of or having to very publicly fold? I would expect that this would act as a warning to other nations that might be considering the same course of action. I don't understand the downside to the EU.
If the EU is bluffing!
What if Hard Brexit isn't that bad? The EU's position is bolstered by the threat that Hard Brexit will do a lot of economic damage.. and even if it does to a lot of damage but that damage is not felt in a timely manner by Britons then.. well, Brexit wasn't so bad becomes the conventional wisdom. The is bad for the internal coherence of the EU if the political winds start blowing in the direction of exit being a straightforward matter with low costs. (The truth of this wisdom is irrelevant of course, it is the belief that matters.)
I am the burrito until someone hands me to a philosopher.

#396 LFC

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 03:18 PM

View PostJ-CA, on 16 January 2019 - 02:45 PM, said:

If the EU is bluffing!

Posted Image
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#397 LFC

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 03:31 PM

View PostJ-CA, on 16 January 2019 - 02:45 PM, said:

What if Hard Brexit isn't that bad? The EU's position is bolstered by the threat that Hard Brexit will do a lot of economic damage.. and even if it does to a lot of damage but that damage is not felt in a timely manner by Britons then.. well, Brexit wasn't so bad becomes the conventional wisdom. The is bad for the internal coherence of the EU if the political winds start blowing in the direction of exit being a straightforward matter with low costs. (The truth of this wisdom is irrelevant of course, it is the belief that matters.)

If all of the cross-border agreements, people movements, goods movement, etc. aren't important then the entire point to the EU falls on its face. Judging from the reasons they created the EU in the first place my guess is that it actually did grease a hell of a lot of skids. I just returned from vacation in Spain and even getting through the airports for basic inter-Europe travel is a easier if you're from the EU.

If just a small number key agreements are truly the important ones then most of the pain could be minimized by coming to an agreement on those. Of course they are then left with the fact that the EU [a] has an interest in Brexit being painful and [b] the ability to make Brexit painful. Self-fulfilling destiny, baby.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#398 LFC

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 04:13 PM

Theresa May survives the no confidence vote.

Quote

British Prime Minister Theresa May survived a no-confidence vote in Parliament on Wednesday to remain in office — but saw more of her power ebb away as she battled to keep Brexit on track after lawmakers demolished her European Union divorce deal.

May won a narrow victory, 325 votes to 306 votes, on an opposition motion seeking to topple her government and trigger a general election.

Now it’s back to Brexit, where May is caught between the rock of her own red lines and the hard place of a Parliament that wants to force a radical change of course.

After winning the vote, May promised to hold talks with leaders of opposition parties and other lawmakers, starting immediately, in a bid to find a way forward for Britain’s EU exit.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer





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