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Minimum Wage Thread


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#61 gmat

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Posted 20 August 2016 - 01:06 PM

That one is means tested. I don't like means tested, because when you start adding income from work, you lose basic income, which occurs for me as an onerous marginal tax rate on your earnings, hence a disincentive to work

#62 AnBr

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Posted 20 August 2016 - 02:52 PM

 gmat, on 20 August 2016 - 12:55 PM, said:

Is any country doing GMI yet? I mean unconditional GMI, decoupled from work, assets, etc? You would have to combine that with strict immigration law enforcement I think.

It makes more sense to me than minimum wage laws.

Not a country, but Utrecht in the Netherlands announced that they were going to experiment with a universal, unconditional 'basic income'

http://www.truthdig....income_20150625

I am not sure that we will have much choice but to implement a GMI when there is too little need for labor for the population. And it is only going to get far worse.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937

#63 J-CA

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Posted 20 August 2016 - 03:22 PM

 AnBr, on 20 August 2016 - 02:52 PM, said:

I am not sure that we will have much choice but to implement a GMI when there is too little need for labor for the population. And it is only going to get far worse.
I support GMI as a good way to organize a modern economy but I don't think that labour demand should be that big a factor in the equation. The economy is not a "zero-sum game" where the productivity gains of automation are somehow simply lost in the ether and all the jobs have disappeared. Good old fashioned progressive taxation and the normal functioning of free-market economies mean that when a tomato grower loses his job to automation there is a pretty good chance everyone saves money on tomatoes.
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#64 gmat

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Posted 20 August 2016 - 03:37 PM

I look at basic income as an appropriate expense of the government, like maintaining roads.

Dependent members of households, whether they're children, retired, disabled, caregivers, whatever -- they each have to have a reliable source of basic income, the workers in the household need the basic income as well.

If not, that household stands a good chance to fall into poverty the first unexpected thing comes up. It's like driving around on empty.



#65 AnBr

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Posted 20 August 2016 - 06:24 PM

 J-CA, on 20 August 2016 - 03:22 PM, said:

I support GMI as a good way to organize a modern economy but I don't think that labour demand should be that big a factor in the equation. The economy is not a "zero-sum game" where the productivity gains of automation are somehow simply lost in the ether and all the jobs have disappeared. Good old fashioned progressive taxation and the normal functioning of free-market economies mean that when a tomato grower loses his job to automation there is a pretty good chance everyone saves money on tomatoes.

I think you are looking at this from past patterns that are not going to hold in the future. A lot of good jobs were lost and many had to resort to low paying service jobs to keep their heads above water. And these were not just manufacturing jobs that were lost. Now a lot of those service jobs are being threatened and many more are likely to disappear, too. Even McDonalds is talking about automating their stores. The trend is for job losses to grow significantly, as per some of the articles linked to in this thread. We are very likely looking at the possibility of losses like we have not witnessed before. This is the reason that many are predicting the "Post Work Society".

The New York Times - A World Without Work

Automation may mean a post-work society but we shouldn't be afraid

The Atlantic - A World Without Work

And "all of the jobs" do not have to be automated away before we would face a crisis. Any significant percentage of the labor force unable to secure employment long enough will result in a very unstable society where nasty things could happen. Progressive tax rates can help mitigate the growing inequality resulting from the loss of decent jobs but won't solve the loss of income for those displaced and unable to find new work. Not having to pay income tax means little if you have no income. Those cheaper tomatoes mean little to the guy who cannot afford them even at the lower price.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937

#66 AnBr

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Posted 20 August 2016 - 06:32 PM

 gmat, on 20 August 2016 - 03:37 PM, said:

I look at basic income as an appropriate expense of the government, like maintaining roads.

Dependent members of households, whether they're children, retired, disabled, caregivers, whatever -- they each have to have a reliable source of basic income, the workers in the household need the basic income as well.

If not, that household stands a good chance to fall into poverty the first unexpected thing comes up. It's like driving around on empty.

I agree that it may very well be a better solution than a minimum wage, if it provides an absolute basement that no one can drop below and that amount is at least enough to survive. It would provide that cushion to survive the unexpecteds. Anyone who wants more would need to earn it, but employers would have to pay enough to make it worth someone's time to do it.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937

#67 gmat

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Posted 20 August 2016 - 07:30 PM

A good thing about the MW though is you can do it at the state level, whereas the other has to be federal I would think.

#68 J-CA

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Posted 20 August 2016 - 08:10 PM

 AnBr, on 20 August 2016 - 06:24 PM, said:

I think you are looking at this from past patterns that are not going to hold in the future.
Could be, but the actual evidence in favour of past patterns changing is pretty poor. There have been predictions of post-work and leisure-dominated societies for decades and for all of those decades most Americans have been working more, not less, and overall employment is mostly steady.

 AnBr, on 20 August 2016 - 06:24 PM, said:

A lot of good jobs were lost and many had to resort to low paying service jobs to keep their heads above water.
This is a category error, some jobs have certainly been lost to automation, more have been lost to jobs going elsewhere. Wage deflation and "low paying service jobs" are political choices Americans have made and can un-make (and I believe they might be in the midst of slowly making that choice right now).
I would reference this insight from Paul Krugman (via a review of Reich):
http://www.nybooks.c...ging-oligarchy/

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Meanwhile, forms of market power that benefit large numbers of workers as opposed to small numbers of plutocrats have declined, again thanks in large part to political decisions. We tend to think of the drastic decline in unions as an inevitable consequence of technological change and globalization, but one need look no further than Canada to see that this isn’t true. Once upon a time, around a third of workers in both the US and Canada were union members; today, US unionization is down to 11 percent, while it’s still 27 percent north of the border. The difference was politics: US policy turned hostile toward unions in the 1980s, while Canadian policy didn’t follow suit. And the decline in unions seems to have major impacts beyond the direct effect on members’ wages: researchers at the International Monetary Fund have found a close association between falling unionization and a rising share of income going to the top one percent, suggesting that a strong union movement helps limit the forces causing high concentration of income at the top.6

 AnBr, on 20 August 2016 - 06:24 PM, said:

And these were not just manufacturing jobs that were lost. Now a lot of those service jobs are being threatened and many more are likely to disappear, too. Even McDonalds is talking about automating their stores. The trend is for job losses to grow significantly, as per some of the articles linked to in this thread. We are very likely looking at the possibility of losses like we have not witnessed before. This is the reason that many are predicting the "Post Work Society".

The New York Times - A World Without Work

Automation may mean a post-work society but we shouldn't be afraid

The Atlantic - A World Without Work
The articles linked are a lot more nuanced than indicated by your comments and trends elsewhere point to the fact that a "post-work' world is a lot less likely than a "less-work" world, this is even acknowledged quite directly in the Atlantic article. Europeans are working less, Americans will probably do so as well. That means "more jobs" while there is "less work" and no one can predict how those sorts of factors will balance out.
OECD disagrees with Frey and Osborne, they make some pretty good points too.
http://www.oecd-ilib...5jlz9h56dvq7-en
FO argues that bookkeeping, accounting & auditing faces an automation potential of 98%, retail sales at 92%. To me these seem like patently ridiculous numbers, these are the sorts of predictions that come along with the idea that everyone will order everything from Amazon sight-unseen, as if the retail shopping experience has no inherent value. (Full disclosure, it has very little value to me but it has a lot of observable value to a lot of people, the idea that only 8% of that value might be provided by the humans working in the stores seems preposterous.) Being able to automate something also differs from deriving value from automating it. I will go ahead and make the prediction that 30 years from now people will still want to talk to a human accountant and derive value from those face-to-face interactions even though they might not be necessary.

 AnBr, on 20 August 2016 - 06:24 PM, said:

And "all of the jobs" do not have to be automated away before we would face a crisis. Any significant percentage of the labor force unable to secure employment long enough will result in a very unstable society where nasty things could happen. Progressive tax rates can help mitigate the growing inequality resulting from the loss of decent jobs but won't solve the loss of income for those displaced and unable to find new work. Not having to pay income tax means little if you have no income. Those cheaper tomatoes mean little to the guy who cannot afford them even at the lower price.
Tomato deflation lowers the price of other things as well, if you cast everything as zero-sum then you end up thinking of more automation as an impending crisis. Predictions of mass-automation of skilled labour have been around for a long time, they've been missing their schedule for a long time, when their day finally comes there is little basis to argue that it will be an instantaneous crisis. Automation technology is being sold, that means it competes in a market with labour - the day the technology existed to create an ATM network ATMs started competing with human tellers, people selling the ATMs want to make as much money as possible, the marginal gain from the capital and operating expenses of that network vs. humans was limited by IBM's desire to capture as much profit as possible. So it will be with other forms of automation in the future, it won't happen in the blink of an eye.

I am a fan of GMI because I believe (and I think much evidence indicates) financial security is the bedrock upon which open, functioning societies operate. Market forces as it relates to the battle between labour and automation, or labour and capital for that matter, I don't regard as particularly relevant to that because I think it is a separate political matter (which America has gone entirely down the wrong path on). Give workers more power and they will get themselves living wages regardless of how few hours they work, as society changes their demands will change.
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#69 gmat

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Posted 20 August 2016 - 08:28 PM

I thought this was a good article at Bloomberg.

https://www.bloomber...n-minimum-wages

#70 Art_Vandelay

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Posted 21 August 2016 - 05:47 PM

 LFC, on 20 August 2016 - 12:10 PM, said:

I work in the area of financial planning software and one of the biggest fears for traditional advisers are the software driven "robo advisers" that are coming out all over the place. High net worth folks still need actual advisers to navigate through the myriad of tax saving techniques, but that represents just a slice of the financial planning market. A lot of lower level advisers could be put out of work.

If my limited experience with financial advisers is common, then I think their replacement will not be missed. My advisers seemed to embrace the buy high, sell low strategy of wealth evaporation -- which they had mastered.

#71 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 21 August 2016 - 07:01 PM

 gmat, on 20 August 2016 - 01:06 PM, said:

That one is means tested. I don't like means tested, because when you start adding income from work, you lose basic income, which occurs for me as an onerous marginal tax rate on your earnings, hence a disincentive to work

That's the problem that Friedman was aiming to solve with the Negative Income Tax. The whole point was to get away from means testing and simply have a higher marginal tax rate. He wanted a flat-rate tax (dubious, IMHO, but this was Uncle Milty) but higher.
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"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
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#72 gmat

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Posted 21 August 2016 - 09:27 PM

This guy has a graph of the spike effective marginal tax rate as one makes more income and loses benefits

http://www.economist...rd-up-americans

#73 Traveler

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Posted 22 August 2016 - 06:18 PM

That is pretty amazing gmat. Thanks for the link.
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#74 AnBr

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Posted 22 August 2016 - 11:06 PM

https://www.facebook...53825430428527/
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937

#75 LFC

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Posted 26 August 2016 - 03:56 PM

Finland is going to try a guaranteed minimum income.

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Switzerland may have voted against the controversial idea of paying all its citizens a guaranteed income, but Finland indicated Thursday it plans to try out a monthly basic payment of 560 euros ($600).

The government said it had chosen the figure for an unconditional basic income in line with a manifesto pledge by centrist Prime Minister Juha Sipila, who took office 15 months ago.

Former businessman Sipila wants to see if the measure can boost employment and simplify the welfare benefits system, and plans to test the idea on a 2,000-strong sample of randomly selected working-age residents.

“The primary goal of the basic income experiment is related to promoting employment,” said the health and social affairs ministry, adding that it also aimed to simplify the complicated benefits system in a sustainable way regarding public finances.

Amid a growing debate on the subject, Finland now wants to be the first European country to test the idea nationwide.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

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#76 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 27 August 2016 - 09:10 AM

One of the proposals for a revenue-neutral carbon tax is to simply redistribute the proceeds on a pure per-capita basis -- essentially a modest guaranteed income.

The main motivation is twofold:
  • economically a carbon tax will (like all consumption taxes) fall most heavily on the poor.
  • votes. Like Social Security, a broad-based benefit structured as something that we all pay for will be very hard to repeal.

The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
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"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
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"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
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#77 LFC

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Posted 31 August 2016 - 11:59 AM

Chris Christie vetoes New Jersey's $15/hr minimum wage bill. The data from elsewhere is meaningless and he trots out the same old arguments.

Quote

He argued more employees would be replaced by automated kiosks at small businesses if the state continuous to hike its minimum wage.

"That's the way of the future if we continue to do this really radical increase with the minimum wage," Christie said.

"All of this sounds great, raising the minimum wage, when you're spending someone else's money," he said. "It should bother you because when you come into Pennington Market your food is going to be more expensive."

The measure sought to raise the minimum wage from $8.38 to $10.10 on Jan. 1, 2017, and then by more than $1.25 an hour until 2021. After 2021, the minimum wage would increase annually based on changes in the consumer price index.

$15 min wage approaching final passage

Christie railed against Democrats for forcing the hike.

"This type of heavy hand of government, to say that we know better than the people that actually own these businesses, is the reason why past administrations New Jersey has become less and less affordable," he said.

Christie added: "This measure is a complete pander to folks who are uniformed because they neither receive the minimum wage or pay it."

Business owners that testified before legislative committees have warned the sharp increase in labor costs could force them to raise prices, cut hours and staff, and possibly close up shop, shrinking the labor market.

Workers and worker advocates said the measure was needed because man workers have trouble trying to get by on the minimum wage in such a high-cost state.

The annual take-home pay for a full-time worker earning the minimum wage in New Jersey is about $17,430. The United Way of Northern New Jersey has estimated a single adult in New Jersey would need to earn $13.78 an hour to meet his or her basic needs, and $19.73 per hour for "better food and shelter, plus modest savings."

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

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#78 AnBr

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Posted 01 September 2016 - 01:23 PM

Millennials’ aversion to “dealing with people” a greater threat to fast-food workers than any minimum wage hike

Quote

According to a survery by Frisch’s Restaurants Inc. — the Cincinnati-based company that operates Big Boy Restaurants — the greatest threat to the future employment of fast-food workers won’t be a minimum wage hike, but the simple fact that millennials “don’t feel like dealing with people.”

In the survey, nearly 31 percent of millennials said that the reason they use the drive-thru isn’t speed or convenience, but because doing so requires the least amount of actual human interaction. Such a tendency will, no doubt, encourage companies to further automate the fast-food purchasing process. In many airports, for example, orders are already placed in kiosks, paid by credit card in the kiosk, and picked up at the counter.

“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937

#79 LFC

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Posted 01 September 2016 - 02:41 PM

 AnBr, on 01 September 2016 - 01:23 PM, said:


Well that's just great in an economy that is producing fewer manufacturing jobs and more service related jobs.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#80 LFC

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Posted 01 September 2016 - 05:19 PM

Advocates for a higher minimum wage are going around state legislatures and are heading straight for the voter. This coming election there will be increased minimum wage ballot initiatives in four states. Grass roots are alive and well on this issue.

Quote

While Christie was issuing his veto in New Jersey, a court out west ruled that Arizona would join Colorado, Maine, and Washington as states where voters would have the opportunity to lift the wage floor themselves. The ballot measure approach worked for progressives in 2014, when voters in four conservative states approved higher minimum wages despite the Republican wave. And in California and the District of Columbia, advocates believe that increases enacted by legislation would not have happened if they had not launched efforts to go around elected officials and put the wage question on the ballot.

The proposals in Arizona, Colorado, and Maine would raise the minimum wage to $12 an hour over the next few years and then index it to inflation. In Washington state, where Seattle and SeaTac have already instituted a $15 hourly minimum, the wage would go to $13.50 by 2020. Arizona and Washington would also mandate that businesses provide paid sick leave to their employees.

What all four states share are legislatures that are either partly or entirely controlled by Republicans opposed to increasing the minimum wage by that amount. “Ballot initiatives are one of the few ways we can get this done, because conservatives control so many of the state legislatures,” said Ryan Johnson, executive director of the Fairness Project, which is campaigning across the country for wage hikes and paid leave policies.

While Democrats are hopeful they will make gains this fall, Republicans now have majorities in 69 of the nation’s 99 state legislative chambers. Yet when voters have had the chance to vote on increasing the minimum wage, they have approved the changes even while electing Republicans at the same time.

“It really does transcend partisan lines, and people really are capable of quote unquote splitting their ticket,” Johnson said. That past success in states like Alaska, Arkansas, and Nebraska—along with more recent polling showing strong support for lifting the wage—has given advocates confidence that the ballot measures will pass in each of the four states this year.

And this post notes that support for an increased minimum wage has some pretty high support. Here's a tweet from one advocacy group.

New @ppppolls show huge support for $15/hr min wage in battleground states
AZ 60%
MO 57%
NC 62%
NH 63%
OH 60%
PA 62%
WI 63%#RaiseTheWage

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