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The Trump Phenomenon


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#5421 LFC

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 04:09 PM

One of Trump's big tells that he's lying is when he uses the word "sir" in an anecdote.

Quote

President Donald Trump told a dramatic story on Twitter last month.

Explaining how he decided to cancel a possible attack on Iran, he wrote, "We were cocked & loaded to retaliate last night on 3 different sights when I asked, how many will die. 150 people, sir, was the answer from a General. 10 minutes before the strike I stopped it..."

This was all so Hollywood that I would have been skeptical regardless of Trump's choice of words. Because he included one particular word, though, I was almost certain the story was inaccurate in some way.

I've fact-checked every word Trump has uttered since his inauguration. I can tell you that if this President relays an anecdote in which he has someone referring to him as "sir," then some major component of the anecdote is very likely to be wrong.

Lots of people do call Trump "sir," of course. But the word seems to pop into his head more frequently when he is inventing or exaggerating a conversation than when he is faithfully relaying one. A "sir" is a flashing red light that he is speaking from his imagination rather than his memory.

In poker parlance, it's a tell.

Trump has told false "sir" stories on all manner of subjects: health care, the Middle East, the courts, unions and -- just last week -- both tariffs and social media. But no genre of Trump story is more reliably sir-heavy than his collection of suspiciously similar tales about macho men breaking into tears of gratitude in his presence.

In a speech in January, Trump painted a colorful picture of the "strong, tough" farmers, ranchers and builders who stood behind him in 2017 as he signed an executive order to rescind a water regulation. "Half of them were crying," he told the American Farm Bureau Federation, especially one man so tough he might not have cried even "when he was a baby."

"He was crying," Trump repeated. "He said, 'Sir, you gave me back my life. You gave me back my property.'"

Touching if true. Absolutely not true.


Personally I'd like to see this metric measured against a control variable. You know like how much more he's lying when he says "sir" than when he just says anything. Is the difference even statistically significant?
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#5422 golden_valley

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 10:09 PM

When will some overly armed, easily led person decide to take a shot at one of the four Congresspeople that Trump has spent the week targeting?

#5423 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 18 July 2019 - 06:07 AM

 LFC, on 17 July 2019 - 12:08 PM, said:

The Democrats need to turn this into a political opportunity. Literally every single solitary thing that happens that can be even kind of traced back to deregulation needs to be tied around the necks of Republicans. Remember their screeching when an illegal immigrant killed somebody? It didn't matter that they committed crimes at a lesser rate than the U.S. population. Heck, we can take the same Republican tactic back to at least Willie Horton. So if cancer rates are up a bit in an area where coal ash regulations were relaxed then start screaming "REPUBLICANS SUPPORT KILLING FAMILIES FOR MONEY!" Somebody dies because of one removed safety regulation? "REPUBLICANS SAY YOUR LIFE IS WORTH SOMEBODY ELSE'S PROFIT!" And on and on.

Ain't gonna get covered that way, because that would be partisan.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#5424 LFC

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Posted 18 July 2019 - 10:13 AM

 golden_valley, on 17 July 2019 - 10:09 PM, said:

When will some overly armed, easily led person decide to take a shot at one of the four Congresspeople that Trump has spent the week targeting?

Give it time. It's the one thing Trump is actively working on.

Quote

During his 2020 campaign rally Wednesday night in North Carolina, President Trump, predictably, could not let his animosity toward four congresswomen of color go, inciting the crowd of supporters to erupt in racist chants that the President did nothing to quell.

Throughout his speech, he piled on Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) most viciously — Trump foreshadowed he would do so in a tweet the morning before the rally — accusing her of supporting Al-Qaeda, scorning Jewish people and hating America.

“Some people did something, I don’t think so,” he said, a remark that was met with uproarious “boos” from the crowd. Trump was referencing a recent spout of ring-wing attacks on Omar when it misconstrued comments she made during a speech at the Council on American-Islamic Relations. As he listed other out-of-context perceived offenses by Omar, the crowd continued its expression of discontent before erupting into chants of “Send her back!”


Interestingly on GMA this morning Stephanopoulos called it out as straight up racist as did another journalist. About f***ing time.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#5425 LFC

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Posted 18 July 2019 - 10:14 AM

Here's a TPM piece about comparisons of Trump to George Wallace. The author makes the case that Trump is actually worse.

Quote

I keep seeing comparisons between Trump’s racial appeals and George Wallace’s 1968 campaign. Here’s the AP’s Steve Peoples and Zeke Miller: “Not since George Wallace’s campaign in 1968 has a presidential candidate — and certainly not an incumbent president — put racial polarization at the center of his call to voters.” Someone here can correct me if my memory is failing me, but in 1968, Wallace did not make explicit racial appeals.

Wallace talked about state’s rights and the ability of “big government” to dictate whether schools should segregate. In his opening appearance in 1967 in Meet the Press, he said he did not favor “segregation in any phase of our society in any state of this union,” but favored the states being allowed to “continue to determine the policies of their domestic institutions themselves.” His voters often understood his appeals in racial terms, but he was careful not to frame his appeal in white vs. black terms.

Trump’s appeal is much more explicit and personal. Wallace, in retrospect, was a conventional politician who reflected and then later rejected the mores of his time and region. Trump is much more of an irresponsible demagogue. He did not rise out of a political movement the way that, say, Hitler or Mussolini did, but is a peculiar product of our celebrity and social media culture. He’s a bad person – a man lacking in conscience — in a way that Wallace, as his turn later against his segregationist past showed, was not.

I have mixed feelings about the politics of this latest outburst: on one hand, it tempts Democrats into an over-reaction, particularly on issues like immigration; on the other hand, it reinforces the aversion of many voters, including erstwhile Republican voters, to having such an individual represent the country as its and their president.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#5426 LFC

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Posted 18 July 2019 - 10:50 AM

The Republican responses to Trump's overtly racism rally are a challenge to any decent human being's gag reflex.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#5427 golden_valley

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Posted 18 July 2019 - 11:13 AM

 LFC, on 18 July 2019 - 10:50 AM, said:

The Republican responses to Trump's overtly racism rally are a challenge to any decent human being's gag reflex.

I saw a few people interviewed at the rally last night...members of the crowd. One guy who made me gag said Trump wasn't racist though he could see how others might construe his remarks as being racist. I'm sure he prided himself on his objective analysis.

#5428 LFC

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Posted 18 July 2019 - 12:22 PM

Tomasky explains that the impact of Trump's blatant racism in tearing the country apart is exactly what he craves. Here's a big chunk but the whole thing is worth a read. No matter how you feel about Trump you have to admit that he is now defining our nation. There are only two choices; accept his definition (no mealy-mouthing about disagreeing with him on this but liking his "policies") or reject him completely. We'll know what America is and stands for in November 2020. We've known what the Republican Party stands for for years now and it's clear that there's nothing Trump could do that will cause them to waver.

Quote

Why is Donald Trump pleased by the controversy over his tweets? Because it’s made him realize more than ever before that he has the power to blow the country up over race.

The New York Times reported Wednesday morning that Donald Trump is thrilled about the controversy stoked by his Sunday morning—and continuing—Twitter barrage aimed at “the Squad.” There’s an ominous lesson in here. The episode seems to have given Trump a new understanding of his power over his supporters and a new sense of destiny. If this doesn’t scare you, you’d better wake up.

Trump was always a racist. He ran on stoking racial fear from the beginning, as many have observed. He and his father were racists 40 years ago.

But this was different. This was much blunter. This was a tipping point. Mainstream newspapers around the country used the word “racist” in their headlines. Many people who don’t usually say Trump is a racist said so this time. The reaction (except among cowardly Republicans) was overwhelming.

To a person with a conscience, this kind of reaction would make them think hey, maybe I was wrong here. But Trump has no conscience. It’s as if something happened to his brain when he was a kid that prevented him from developing the normal moral reasoning that most of us, to one degree or another, have.

He has only a will to power; to crush and destroy opponents. So whereas a person with a conscience would survey the past three days and think “perhaps I shouldn’t be doing this to the country of which I am after all the president,” Trump surveys it and marvels: “Look at the incredible power I have over people.”

He’s known this for a long time; the “I could shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue” line is proof of that. But I think this episode has shown him that his power is even greater than he thought.

Because here’s a new thing: He’s now thinking strategically. That is, most everyone has agreed that yes, he says shocking things, but he says them on instinct. He’s not really thinking through what consequences they might carry a week or a month later. He just says what he needs to say in the moment.

That has now changed. This incursion was 100 percent strategic. The strategy is twofold: to make the whole Democratic Party into the more left-wing Squad, and to push white people’s race buttons. It’s how he thinks he’s going to win, along with the power of the office and a huge fundraising headstart this time around.

So let’s add all that together. He’s always been a racist. But now he sees in new ways the power his racism exerts over the discourse—his admirers especially, but the whole discourse—and from here on, through the election and of course beyond if he wins, he’s going to be deploying it more strategically.

Axios added on Wednesday morning that Trump’s attacks this week are entirely “premeditated.” He knows he won the white vote in 2016 by 20-plus points and thinks he can win it by more. He also thinks he did all right among Latinos—better than Mitt Romney—because a certain percentage of Latinos agree with him on immigration. And this is how he ekes out a win.

He even wins some Democratic votes this way. The Times article linked to above cites a study (I can’t link to it, you have to buy it) showing in essence that some more conservative Democrats have somewhat high “racial animus attitudes,” and that in many cases they vote on those attitudes, not the ideological affinity they share with the Democrat.

The upshot: He will say ever more outrageous and racist things, things that will make Sunday’s tweets look like Girl Scout oaths. Again, this is the opposite of any normal politician. It’s vital to understand this.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#5429 golden_valley

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Posted 18 July 2019 - 12:42 PM

 LFC, on 18 July 2019 - 12:22 PM, said:

Tomasky explains that the impact of Trump's blatant racism in tearing the country apart is exactly what he craves. Here's a big chunk but the whole thing is worth a read. No matter how you feel about Trump you have to admit that he is now defining our nation. There are only two choices; accept his definition (no mealy-mouthing about disagreeing with him on this but liking his "policies") or reject him completely. We'll know what America is and stands for in November 2020. We've known what the Republican Party stands for for years now and it's clear that there's nothing Trump could do that will cause them to waver.

Just wonderful...Trump has learned how to prolong his feral instincts to achieve strategic ends.

What donors will stand up to the Reps? They got their tax cuts and deregulation is moving along. Many are wealthy enough to leave the country entirely if they choose to and leave the rest of us with the mess.

#5430 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 18 July 2019 - 01:45 PM

 golden_valley, on 18 July 2019 - 12:42 PM, said:

What donors will stand up to the Reps? They got their tax cuts and deregulation is moving along. Many are wealthy enough to leave the country entirely if they choose to and leave the rest of us with the mess.

I know this is a depressing analysis, but ...

With enough resolve there is nothing to stop Congress from taxing the snot out of the assets who run out on US obligations.

With enough resolve ...
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#5431 golden_valley

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Posted 18 July 2019 - 04:25 PM

Call me cynical but it looks to me like that "send her back" thing from last night in North Carolina was backfiring on Trump so now it's time for some shootin'

Quote


The Iranian drone came within 1,000 yards of the USS Boxer in the Strait of Hormuz before the crew “took defensive action” and “immediately destroyed” it,” Trump said in remarks ahead of a White House ceremony with a delegation from the Netherlands.

“This is the latest of many provocative and hostile actions by Iran against vessels operating in international waters,” he said. “The United States reserves the right to defend our personnel, our facilities and interests and calls upon all nations to condemn Iran’s attempts to disrupt freedom of navigation and global commerce. I also call on other nations to protect their ships as they go through the strait and to work with us in the future.”



#5432 JackD

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Posted 18 July 2019 - 05:18 PM

And besides, we had to get even for ours they shot down.

#5433 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 18 July 2019 - 05:18 PM

"In the Strait of Hormuz" sounds like the aircraft was quite likely in Iranian territory. So what exactly entitles a US warship in Iranian waters to shoot down an Iranian aircraft in Iranian territory?

What exactly are the rules of engagement for US ships there? ISTR that in the past we've shot down commercial airliners following standard traffic routes with registered flight plans in that area.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#5434 LFC

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Posted 18 July 2019 - 05:21 PM

 D. C. Sessions, on 18 July 2019 - 05:18 PM, said:

"In the Strait of Hormuz" sounds like the aircraft was quite likely in Iranian territory. So what exactly entitles a US warship in Iranian waters to shoot down an Iranian aircraft in Iranian territory?

"TRUMP, BITCH!" No, really. It's that simple.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#5435 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 18 July 2019 - 05:57 PM

So now he's gone to SLAAMs as penis prosthetics?
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#5436 baw1064

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Posted 18 July 2019 - 06:10 PM

 D. C. Sessions, on 18 July 2019 - 05:18 PM, said:

What exactly are the rules of engagement for US ships there?

Initiating a conflict is permitted if Trump is looking bad in the current news cycle!
“Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, Nothing is going to get better. It's not.” --Dr. Seuss

#5437 LFC

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 08:24 AM

Trump said he tried to stop his crowds racist chants. The video showed he lied. Show of hands, who's surprised?

Oh, yeah. This via CNN in June: Donald Trump lies more often than you wash your hands every day

Quote

In his first 869 days as President, Donald Trump said 10,796 things that were either misleading or outright false, according to The Washington Post's Fact Checker. Do the math and you get this: The President of the United States is saying 12 untrue things a day.

Which is a lot! But it's also hard to wrap your head around how much lying or, uh, misleading that actually is. So, think about it this way: Trump is lying more every day than a majority of Americans wash their hands. According to data from the American Cleaning Institute, just 50% of Americans wash their hands in excess of 10 times a day.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#5438 LFC

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 09:36 AM

Well that didn't last long.

Quote

Not even 24 hours after telling reporters that he was “not happy” with the “send her back” chant against Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) at his reelection rally earlier this week, President Donald Trump on Friday seemed to be more onboard with the widely condemned message.

Quote

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
It is amazing how the Fake News Media became “crazed” over the chant “send her back” by a packed Arena (a record) crowd in the Great State of North Carolina, but is totally calm & accepting of the most vile and disgusting statements made by the three Radical Left Congresswomen...


Quote

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
....Mainstream Media, which has lost all credibility, has either officially or unofficially become a part of the Radical Left Democrat Party. It is a sick partnership, so pathetic to watch! They even covered a tiny staged crowd as they greeted Foul Mouthed Omar in Minnesota, a...

Quote

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
....State which I will win in #2020 because they can’t stand her and her hatred of our Country, and they appreciate all that I have done for them (opening up mining and MUCH more) which has led to the best employment & economic year in Minnesota’s long and beautiful history!

That "tiny staged crowd"? Omar got a very warm welcome when she arrived back home. No wonder Toddler Trump is throwing yet another tantrum.

Quote

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) got something of a hero’s welcome the moment she arrived back to her hometown of Minneapolis, Minnesota on Thursday evening.

When Omar stepped out of the airport doors, she was greeted with signs and a cheering crowd welcoming her return.

“Welcome home, Ilhan! Welcome home, Ilhan!” the crowd chanted.

A smiling Omar can be seen making her way through the crowd throughout the chants.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#5439 golden_valley

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 11:16 AM

Typical Trump. He gets all wound up on something, takes it to his rallies and then when he gets called on it, he backs away a little or says he was just joking. Then some time passes and he's back at it again. Remember his inciting rally audience to remove dissenters or pointing out that female reporter or asking Russia to find the emails? All the same things.

#5440 LFC

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 04:52 PM

 golden_valley, on 19 July 2019 - 11:16 AM, said:

Typical Trump. He gets all wound up on something, takes it to his rallies and then when he gets called on it, he backs away a little or says he was just joking. Then some time passes and he's back at it again. Remember his inciting rally audience to remove dissenters or pointing out that female reporter or asking Russia to find the emails? All the same things.

Speaking of "typical Trump"...

Quote

In his latest act of self-contradiction, President Donald Trump proclaimed Friday that not only were negotiations over raising the federal debt ceiling in “good shape,” but also that he could not “imagine” anybody even “thinking” of using the debt ceiling as leverage.

“I can’t imagine anybody ever even thinking of using the debt ceiling as a negotiating wedge,” Trump remarked in the Oval Office Friday, before riffing for a minute.

“When I first came into office I asked about the debt ceiling, and I understand debt ceilings, and I certainly understand the highest rated credit in history, and the debt ceiling, and I said, I remember, to Sen. Schumer and to Nancy Pelosi, ‘Would anybody ever use that to negotiate with? And they said ‘absolutely not, that’s a sacred element of our country. They can’t use the debt ceiling to negotiate,” Trump said.

In 2012 and 2013, Trump thought differently. Back then, he tweeted that Republicans “have the cards because of the debt ceiling—but it doesn’t seem that way!” adding a few days later: “The Republicans must use the debt ceiling as leverage to make a great deal!”

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer





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