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Is Netanyahu in trouble?


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#1 jdd_stl1

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Posted 05 May 2015 - 10:43 PM

http://talkingpoints...i-gets-the-shiv

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The entire time it's seemed virtually certain that he would assemble a government with a 67 seat majority (out of 120) made up of rightist parties, religious parties and one center-left party, Kulanu. That was until Monday when Avigdor Lieberman, head of the now greatly diminished Yisrael Beiteinu party said F'it - and more specifically F'you to Netanyahu - and took his party's six seats into opposition.

Seems like right now he is sitting on 61/120 with one day left to form a coalition....
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#2 gmat

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Posted 06 May 2015 - 08:53 AM

Interesting political times in what should be a sideshow to US vital interests in the ME. Except that a well-heeled US faction that fetishizes Israel makes it a major preoccupation of US lawmakers, and a major pain in the ass to people like me, who fancy we have more important things to worry about.

So here we are, speculating on what will "Bibi" do next.

http://www.lobelog.c...orm-government/



#3 Progressive whisperer

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Posted 06 May 2015 - 09:05 AM

I think it's a mix of fetishizing Isreal and seeing a kindred spirit in Bibi and Likud. If the older style parties that established the state were in power I expect there would be much less support from our RWers.

See also, the treatment of the Catholic Church under Benedict vs. the Church under Pope Francis. I fully expect the old Protestant slurs about the "whore of Babylon" to come back any day now.
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#4 Traveler

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Posted 06 May 2015 - 10:13 AM

Looks like a really bad outcome, 61 out of 120, with the hawks in charge.

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“It’s now clear to everyone that we are talking about another government of national failure, one that will be weak and deadlocked,” Herzog said at a meeting of his party’s parliament members.

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#5 LFC

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Posted 06 May 2015 - 11:02 AM

From the TPM piece, it looks like Netanyahu will no longer be able to act in a right-wing manner while pretending to be more reasonable. If he takes his one good option, it's balls to the wall right-wing aggression and a big middle finger to the international community.

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Now, I would not bet any money on Netanyahu's managing to throw away his incredibly hard fought election victory. But the options he's left with are not good ones. The most immediate of these is that he now has 53 seats taken care of and he needs Naftali Bennett's 8 seats to get to 61. That means Bennett - who has a similarly strained or acrimonious relationship with Netanyahu - holds Netanyahu's fate almost totally in his hands and can demand almost anything of him. The main demands seem to be the foreign ministry and/or the Justice ministry. But both of those are tough asks because Bennett's party is radioactive to the international community on his total rejection of a two state solution and dismal stance on civil rights and minority rights. You may say, who cares? What do they care? Well, Netanyahu cares a lot because as we've discussed in the past, his angle has always been to form governments which are a) substantially right wing b) give him personally a maximally free hand and c) have some figleaf of moderation to placate the US and Europe.

Having Bennett as his foreign minister does not help.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#6 Progressive whisperer

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Posted 06 May 2015 - 11:20 AM

So Bibi's next government will be Hobbsian?

Nasty, brutish and short?
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#7 Rich T Bikkies

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Posted 06 May 2015 - 11:40 AM

View PostProgressive whisperer, on 06 May 2015 - 11:20 AM, said:

So Bibi's next government will be Hobbsian?

Nasty, brutish and short?

Let's hope so. The shorter it is, the more the nastiness and brutishness will be mitigated.

Nasty, Brutish and Short would make a good name for a law firm.
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#8 indy

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Posted 18 September 2019 - 07:35 AM

Results from yesterday's election are very very close, but with 91% of the vote counted, Netanyahu looks like he might be unseated.

#9 LFC

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Posted 18 September 2019 - 08:34 AM

View Postindy, on 18 September 2019 - 07:35 AM, said:

Results from yesterday's election are very very close, but with 91% of the vote counted, Netanyahu looks like he might be unseated.

If it's that close the right-wing nationalists will likely win ... by any means necessary. They are unburdened by an actual belief in democracy and law.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#10 LFC

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Posted 18 September 2019 - 09:47 AM

Josh Marshall breaks the current razor thin cluster-f*** down here and here. Here's a snippet from the second link.

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Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu wrecked Netanyahu’s shot at forming a government last time. He bet it all on that and he won big. His seat total went up substantially. If you assume he will again not join a Netanyahu coalition, then Netanyahu really doesn’t appear to have the seats to form a government. If the exit polls are roughly accurate the rightist bloc has 56 seats.

That doesn’t mean the center-left bloc is in much better shape. The current numbers give them 53 seats. But if Yisrael Beiteinu joined a Gantz government, there’s 61 votes. Of course how you get the Israeli center-left parties to sit with the secular nationalist Lieberman is hard to figure. Of course, they could bring in the Joint List, which is a union of Arab and non-Zionist parties. But that won’t happen.

It all comes down to Lieberman. If he won’t sit in a Netanyahu government, it’s hard to see how Netanyahu can form a rightwing government. The numbers just aren’t there. A national unity government is plausible, which would include Likud. But the price of that — including Blue and White — would almost certainly be Netanyahu’s ouster.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#11 LFC

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 10:20 AM

This smells like desperation on Netanyahu's part. He's not the compromise kind of guy.

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's surprise invitation to his main rival to form a coalition government after Tuesday's election has been rejected. The offer was made to former General Benny Gantz, the leader of the centrist Blue and White party, and marked a change in strategy for Netanyahu who had hoped ahead of the election to form a right-wing Israeli government. The offer was swiftly rejected. The prime minister said Thursday: “I was surprised and disappointed by the fact that, as of now, Benny Gantz still refuses my call to meet ... Gantz, my offer that the two of us meet stands. It’s what the public expects of us.” Gantz previously ruled out forming a government with a Netanyahu-led Likud party due to the corruption charges against the prime minister.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#12 LFC

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Posted 20 September 2019 - 01:10 PM

Bibi just got handed a serious lesson in what it means to be "friends" with Trump. His needs will always outweigh yours and once you're a loser he doesn't wanted to be tainted by your loserishness.

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Just before the last election, Trump’s declaration of the Golan Heights as sovereign Israeli territory seemed perfectly timed to provide Netanyahu with maximum political benefit. For his part, he milked their relationship for all it was worth, touting his Trump bromance throughout the campaign. The slogan “Netanyahu—another league” was emblazoned on billboards showing him shaking hands with Trump, and his election ads featured an upbeat song by popular singer Maor Edri and the refrain “let’s go Putin, let’s go Trump!”

Netanyahu spoke constantly of his “close personal” friendship with the U.S. president, as if he was personally responsible for American policy towards Israel. His message was that he alone had access to the world leaders who keep Israel safe.

This strategy backfired in recent days when Netanyahu’s supporters were horrified by Trump’s willingness to meet with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.

“Everything has blown up in his face,” said Gayil Talshir, political scientist at Hebrew University, in the weeks before the election. “This is a blow to Netanyahu, who benefits from the impression that he is behind America’s policy. Trump saying he’s ready to meet Rouhani undermines this, and undermines the idea that Netanyahu is the best friend of Trump.”

Trump doesn’t like to be associated with losers. The day after the election, he told reporters that he hadn’t spoken to Netanyahu, and added, “Our relations are with the state of Israel.”

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#13 LFC

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Posted 24 September 2019 - 04:35 AM

Israel's Arab lawmakers picked Gantz over Netanyahu. Hopefully this is finally the end of Bibi's cruel and corrupt political career.

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After 27 years of sitting out decisions on who should lead Israel, Arab lawmakers on Sunday recommended that Benny Gantz, the centrist former army chief, get the first chance to form a government over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a watershed assertion of political power.

Ayman Odeh, the leader of the Arab Joint List, wrote in a New York Times Op-Ed published on Sunday that the alliance’s 13 incoming lawmakers — the third-largest faction in the newly elected Parliament — had decided to recommend Mr. Gantz because it would “create the majority needed to prevent another term for Mr. Netanyahu.”

“It should be the end of his political career,” Mr. Odeh wrote.

The Arab lawmakers’ recommendation, which Mr. Odeh and other members of the Joint List delivered to President Reuven Rivlin in a face-to-face meeting Sunday evening, reflected Arab citizens’ impatience to integrate more fully into Israeli society and to have their concerns be given greater weight by Israeli lawmakers.

“There is no doubt a historic aspect to what we are doing now,” Mr. Odeh said in the meeting with the president, which was broadcast live.

Mr. Netanyahu and his Likud party responded furiously to the Joint List’s recommendation, continuing an anti-Arab campaign as if the election was yet to take place.

“There are now two options,” Mr. Netanyahu said in a video clip soon after the meeting between members of the Joint List and the president. “Either there will be a minority government that relies on those who reject Israel as a Jewish and democratic state and glorify terrorists who murder our soldiers and civilians, or there will be a broad national government.”

“I know what the answer is and so do you,” he continued, “which is why I will work as hard as I can to form a broad national unity government.”

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#14 Traveler

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Posted 24 September 2019 - 10:16 AM

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Broad national unity.
I didn't know he was a comedian.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#15 LFC

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Posted 24 September 2019 - 10:29 AM

The election situation in Israel is a f***ing mess.

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Israel’s two largest parties met Tuesday to discuss the possibility of forming a unity government, in a long-shot effort to break the political deadlock following last week’s national elections.

The meeting between party representatives comes a day after Blue and White leader Benny Gantz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of the rival Likud party held their first working meeting since the vote. Israeli President Reuven Rivlin brought them together in hopes of breaking an impasse that could lead to months of political limbo and potentially force a third election in less than a year.

“We took a significant step this evening, and now the main challenge is building a direct channel of communication out of trust between the two sides,” Rivlin told the two rivals. “People expect you to find a solution and to prevent further elections, even if it comes at a personal and even ideological cost.”

Israel’s president is responsible for choosing a candidate for prime minister after national elections. That task is usually a formality, but it is far more complicated this time since neither of the top two candidates can build a stable parliamentary majority on his own.

Rivlin summoned Gantz and Netanyahu for another summit Wednesday before making his decision. No breakthrough is expected, and it is unclear which way Rivlin is leaning.

On Tuesday, negotiators from the two parties met for what they described in a joint statement as a “matter-of-fact” meeting “held in good spirits.”

Gantz’s centrist Blue and White came in first in the elections, with 33 seats, trailed by Netanyahu’s Likud with 31. With smaller allied parties, a total of 55 lawmakers have thrown their support behind Netanyahu, against 54 for Gantz, leaving both men short of the required 61-seat majority.

A unity deal between the large parties, with a rotating leadership, is seen as perhaps the only way out of the gridlock. That’s what Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of the ultranationalist Yisrael Beitenu party, is insisting upon. Lieberman, who controls eight seats, has refused to endorse either candidate and is demanding they join him in a broad, secular unity government that excludes the ultra-Orthodox parties — Netanyahu’s long-time partners. A former aide and ally of Netanyahu, Lieberman forced the Sept. 17 repeat vote by refusing to join Netanyahu’s coalition and robbing him of his parliamentary majority.

Both Netanyahu and Gantz have expressed support for a unity government but have deep disagreements over its agenda and who should lead it.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#16 Rich T Bikkies

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Posted 24 September 2019 - 10:36 AM

View PostLFC, on 24 September 2019 - 10:29 AM, said:


It appears to me that the old Jewish proverb "Two Jews, three opinions" is cherished by Jews as referencing a characteristically Jewish attribute. Entrenching it as a defining attribute of the Knesset when the State of Israel was set up seems, with hindsight, a bad idea.
Reality is a hallucination caused by alcohol deprivation.

Only Satan can rebuke sin. The righteous don't know enough.
Rudyard Kipling

God is not dead. He was merely voted out of office.

You can do anything with anybody if you just save them the trouble of thinking.
Rudyard Kipling

People don’t believe in ideas: they believe in people who believe in ideas. Ze’ev Mankowitz

#17 LFC

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Posted 04 October 2019 - 03:46 PM

Pre-indictment hearings are under way for Netanyahu. I think he's in the same boat as Trump. As long as he could hold office he could fight back pretty hard. Now he's a lot weaker.

Quote

The first two days of the hearing have been focused on Case 4000, which centers on suspicions Netanyahu acted to benefit media mogul Shaul Elovitch in return for favorable news coverage. The prime minister could be charged with bribery and fraud and breach of trust in this case. Early next week the hearing will center around Cases 1000 and 2000 – gifts in exchange for political favors, and legislation in exchange for favorable coverage, respectively.

There are simple descriptions of each of the 3 cases against him.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#18 AnBr

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Posted 04 October 2019 - 03:57 PM

Now if we could make it a trifecta with Johnson... Let the world know what's in store for Putin's useful idiots.
“Trump’s a stupid man’s idea of a smart person, a poor man’s idea of a rich person & a weak man’s idea of a strong man.”

— Fran Lebowitz


“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937

#19 LFC

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Posted 13 January 2020 - 04:50 PM

Some of Israel's left-wing parties have decided that whatever differences there are between them they at least realize allowing Netanyahu to rule will be a disaster for the country.

Quote

Israel’s left-wing Meretz and Labor-Gesher parties announced Monday they have joined forces ahead of March 2 elections to boost their chances against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing base.

Israel’s political scene is in turmoil ahead of the third national vote in less than a year after neither Netanyahu nor his centrist rival Benny Gantz were able to form a coalition following two polls last year.

With Israel’s two major political blocs almost neck-and-neck, smaller parties and coalitions could emerge as potential kingmakers after the upcoming elections.

The new left-wing joint list called “Emet” — “truth” in Hebrew — was agreed by Labor-Gesher leader Amir Peretz and Meretz head Nitzan Horowitz, who want to join forces against the prime minister’s Likud party.

“Peretz and Horowitz stressed the message of union and hope of political change which will be at the social heart and the political direction of the next government after the end of the Netanyahu era,” they said in a joint statement.

Labor-Gesher and Meretz won six and five seats respectively last September in the 120-seat Knesset and must clinch at least 3.25 percent of total votes cast in order to enter the legislature after the March polls.

“To have a chance at replacing Netanyahu, the things we have in common are more important than our differences,” Peretz said at a press conference alongside Horowitz.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#20 AnBr

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Posted 13 January 2020 - 05:08 PM

If only our left-wing would realize this.
“Trump’s a stupid man’s idea of a smart person, a poor man’s idea of a rich person & a weak man’s idea of a strong man.”

— Fran Lebowitz


“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937





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