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TX Attorney General Greg Abbott "Ask chemical plants what's inside"


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#21 Traveler

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Posted 08 July 2014 - 07:57 PM

View PostD. C. Sessions, on 08 July 2014 - 05:14 PM, said:

It's worse than that. Actually, confidence is sort of U-shaped vs. skill.Those with none think they're great. Those with moderate ability are very unsure. Those who are truly expert are confident.
I think the problem is that the definition of truly expert has evolved. See confirmation bias. Even smart but misguided people succumb, and consider the rest of us as detritus. Yet they are considered expert if enough sheep go along.

Edited by Traveler, 08 July 2014 - 07:59 PM.

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#22 Rich T Bikkies

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Posted 09 July 2014 - 02:30 AM

View PostSinan, on 08 July 2014 - 04:13 PM, said:

For some reason, the dumber you are, the more certain you are that you are brilliant. The smarter you are, the more doubt and uncertainty you have in regards to what you think you know.

From the age of 12 I've been certain I'm brilliant. Oh, damn. Sinan, you bringer of bad news, you've just blighted the rest of my life!
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#23 Banty

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Posted 09 July 2014 - 05:44 AM

View PostLFC, on 08 July 2014 - 12:56 PM, said:

In the Open Carry Texas discussion, DSP said that he thought there was a good chance that these asshats were so over the top that they were left-wing plants (and to be fair, these folks seem to have the intelligence level of house plants) ... or at least being shown as typical within the gun rights movement when they were a fringe.


Ah, the all-purpose "false flag" theory.

If one's "side" does or says something embarrassing or extreme, one can always reach for that banner. Anytime.
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#24 Joanna

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Posted 09 July 2014 - 06:46 AM

View PostSinan, on 08 July 2014 - 04:13 PM, said:

For some reason, the dumber you are, the more certain you are that you are brilliant. The smarter you are, the more doubt and uncertainty you have in regards to what you think you know.

View PostLFC, on 08 July 2014 - 04:29 PM, said:

Great minds think alike. Apparently our minds do too.

hmm, kind of funny, lol....:)

#25 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 09 July 2014 - 12:54 PM

View PostTraveler, on 08 July 2014 - 07:57 PM, said:

Yet they are considered expert if enough sheep go along.

That only goes so far. You, for instance, are at least a minor expert in your field. That doesn't mean that you know everything about it, but it does mean that you can spot someone who couldn't pass the comps if they had a year and their lives depended on it. Same goes for Banty, allowing for the inevitable fog of time -- but within her working specialty, I wouldn't even dream of trying to pass as competent, much less expert.

Mehmet Oz might pass as a breast cancer expert on TV, but if he tried to convince David Gorski (or just about any practising oncologist) he'd be chewed to bits. So, yeah, there are TV-type "experts," but that has a lot more to do with fraud than with Dunning-Kruger.
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#26 Traveler

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Posted 09 July 2014 - 01:24 PM

True dat.

Actually, that is precisely why scientific discovery is so fascinating. In my own particular corner of my field, I am the expert, as I was the one that found out what I know. That is the neat thing about science, and why you know you don't know it all. Because you absolutely don't. You discover one thing, report it and folks replicate it. But so far, nobody gets results near as good as what I have. (Nobody listens, but that seems to be changing) - I am now number 2, 3 and 6 on the general Google search for my particular specialty, and number 7 on Scholar (going against much older papers). Got another comparison experiment coming up to compare my formulation to the big boy (no. 5). Won't know for sure until the fat lady sings on that one later this summer.

That said, there must be thousands of scientists that know more about the various processes that underlie these responses. So in that respect, I don't consider myself an expert. I am really just a dilettante.

Edited by Traveler, 09 July 2014 - 01:40 PM.

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#27 LFC

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Posted 09 July 2014 - 01:50 PM

View PostTraveler, on 09 July 2014 - 01:24 PM, said:

I am really just a dilettante.

Oh, puh-lease. I've seen you. You look nothing like this (a fact I'm sure that your wife is quite happy about):

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