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The All Things Global Warming / Climate Change / Climate Disruption Thread


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#2561 pnwguy

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Posted 15 September 2020 - 08:50 AM

View PostLFC, on 15 September 2020 - 07:47 AM, said:



The news this morning reported that the big problem with Sally is that it's very slow moving and dumping a massive amount of rain. As the meteorologist put it nobody is steering and nobody is on the gas. Landfall has been pushed back something about 12 hours and every hour over the Gulf means strengthening. One part of Mississippi is expected to get 30" of rain and when it comes inland it's supposed to still dump 6-12" in the Atlanta area. This sounds like it's going to be another shitshow.
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#2562 Sinan

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Posted 15 September 2020 - 09:03 AM

 D. C. Sessions, on 12 September 2020 - 01:54 PM, said:

Darwin takes another nibble. For those who have never had the yellow fever vaccination, DIY root canal w/o anaesthesia hurts less. It's also the most effective vaccine ever -- like, near as we can tell, 100%. Which is fair, since the case mortality for yellow fever is pretty high too.

The antivaxxers are going to absolutely refuse this thing. Which is fine by me since it's not human-human transmitted.

I remember my yellow fever shot well. We got the shots and then went to see a movie right afterwards. By the end of the movie I could barely get out of my seat. They gave us the shots in the hip with this giant needle, hurt like hell. I did have some fever and chills that night as well. I hated that shot.
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#2563 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 15 September 2020 - 10:00 AM

View PostSinan, on 15 September 2020 - 09:03 AM, said:

I hated that shot.

Everyone hates that shot. The only thing that's worse is yellow fever.
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#2564 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 15 September 2020 - 07:48 PM

Catch this now, it's not going to last (I'm not going to upload the webcam image)

https://www.carroll....617785835956351

This is the sky over Helena MT -- far from the coast, but downwind of California and Oregon. Air quality is in the "stay indoors and run an air purifier" range.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#2565 golden_valley

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Posted 15 September 2020 - 11:28 PM

View PostD. C. Sessions, on 15 September 2020 - 07:48 PM, said:

Catch this now, it's not going to last (I'm not going to upload the webcam image)

https://www.carroll....617785835956351

This is the sky over Helena MT -- far from the coast, but downwind of California and Oregon. Air quality is in the "stay indoors and run an air purifier" range.

Sorry to say that there is lots more smoke where that came from.

#2566 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 16 September 2020 - 06:54 AM

View Postgolden_valley, on 15 September 2020 - 11:28 PM, said:

Sorry to say that there lots more smoke where that came from.

A few years back (funny how time sense works) Montana was downwind of that year's fires in California and my son in law was having a bad time breathing. He probably would have come around to getting an air purifier for the bedroom sooner or later but I didn't see any point in waiting so I got them a couple (one for the baby, too -- not like the rugrat was going to be buying his own). Apparently it worked so well that they could tell the same night. Well up on the "best investment I ever made" list.; this looks worse than before (Oregon vs.California means lots more particulates.)
Maybe I should get them a third now that there are two small fry.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#2567 andydp

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Posted 16 September 2020 - 07:16 AM

View PostD. C. Sessions, on 15 September 2020 - 10:00 AM, said:

Everyone hates that shot. The only thing that's worse is yellow fever.

Typhoid shots are no fun either. Had to get them a couple of times when I was in the Army. One time, I did NOT have to get a shot because I still had a valid immunization. (The others in my Officer Basic course did not like me that week)
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#2568 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 16 September 2020 - 08:06 AM

View Postandydp, on 16 September 2020 - 07:16 AM, said:

Typhoid shots are no fun either. Had to get them a couple of times when I was in the Army. One time, I did NOT have to get a shot because I still had a valid immunization. (The others in my Officer Basic course did not like me that week)

$HERSELF had the typhoid (and many others) in her undergrad microbiology program [1] and later when working in Mexico was still theoretically safe. Turns out she wasn't. ER doc took one look at the rash and administered chloramphenicol without waiting for the lab tests. Good thing, close call. Lost all of her hair and took more than a year of convalescence. Before typhoid she was a redhead, afterwards a darkish brown.

Interestingly, whether thanks to starting over or inheritance, she's only now getting threads of silver in her hair. At past 70. People who thought she was coloring it in her 50s have no excuse now.

[1] It's so embarrassing to have the undergrad lab students get nasty diseases.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#2569 golden_valley

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Posted 16 September 2020 - 11:19 AM

An explanation of how it goes from no fire to 100,000 acres engulfed in a 12 hours.

#2570 LFC

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Posted 16 September 2020 - 11:43 AM

View Postgolden_valley, on 16 September 2020 - 11:19 AM, said:

An explanation of how it goes from no fire to 100,000 acres engulfed in a 12 hours.

Jeezus. This.

Quote

In the past few months, one in every 33 acres of California has burned. This year is already the most destructive wildfire season, in terms of acreage affected, in state history. In 2018, during California’s last annus horribilis, I noted that six of the 10 largest wildfires in state history had happened since 2008. That list has since been completely rewritten. Today, six of California’s 10 largest wildfires have happened since 2018—and five of them have happened this year.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

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#2571 LFC

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Posted 17 September 2020 - 04:47 PM

I feel so much schadenfreude. Does that make me a bad person?

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Oregon Republican state senator Fred Girod was one of 11 Republicans who made headlines when they walked out of the senate – some even leaving the state – so that a quorum could not be achieved for a climate change bill.

As Wikipedia states:

Quote

“From June 20, 2019, all 11 Republican state senators for Oregon, including Girod, refused to show up for work at the Oregon State Capitol, instead going into hiding, some even fleeing the state. Their aim was to push the vote on a cap-and-trade proposal that would dramatically lower greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 to combat climate change to voters instead of being instituted by lawmakers. The Senate holds 30 seats, but 1 is vacant due to a death. Without the Republican senators, the remaining 18 Democratic state senators could not reach a quorum of 20 to hold a vote. Although several Republican state senators returned to the Senate chamber on June 29, 2019, leading to the cap-and-trade bill being sent back to committee, while other bills were passed, Girod was missing, and it was stated that he would not return for the month’s legislative session.”


Now with wildfires raging in Oregon, climate change has come to Girod’s doorstep. Literally.

Oregon Live reports:

Quote

“Fred Girod stood near the edge of a steep drop between what remained of his house and the Santiam River, grasping the destruction days after the Beachie Creek wildfire destroyed homes, businesses and landmarks along the canyon.

The walls of the one-story home had collapsed, leaving two stone columns and a chimney that rose out of the rubble. The heat and flames had twisted the frame of the deck where he would sit to watch bald eagles, ospreys and sunrises.

Girod, a 69-year-old state senator, made an impromptu trip Sunday into his sprawling district that includes many of the most hard-hit areas decimated by wildfires that have now burned more than 1 million acres across the state and killed at least 10 people.

‘It hurts,’ Girod said, hands in his dark denim jeans.”

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2572 LFC

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Posted 18 September 2020 - 04:01 PM

As if record wildfires weren't enough.

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After unprecedented wildfires burned through nearly one million acres across Oregon, the state is facing a new threat. The Oregonian reports that a storm system is headed toward the state that could cause flash flooding and fast-moving debris flows. On the positive side, the rains could help clear wildfire smoke, but the National Weather Service has warned several counties—Hood River, Multnomah, Clackamas, Marion, Linn, Lane, Douglas, Coos, Jackson, and Klamath—to be prepared for flooding. The floods could carry debris left behind by the wildfires over the past few weeks. Ten large blazes are still raging in the state, according to the report.

Read it at The Oregonian

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2573 LFC

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Posted 23 September 2020 - 03:00 PM

The Arctic as we knew it is f***ed.

Quote

Rapid changes in the Arctic are forcing the region into an entirely different climate state according to environmental scientists, as its once-frozen landscape continues to heat up. New research published in the journal Nature Climate Change from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has found that year-on-year increases in temperature have moved well beyond changes seen in the region’s history, indicating that this “new Arctic” may now be its new norm.

Weather patterns have always shifted in the region, with some variability in sea ice, temperature, rainy seasons, and snowfall being expected. The new study led by NCAR scientist Laura Landrum and co-author and NCAR scientist Marika Holland used detailed computer simulations based on Arctic climate observations to map scenarios for the region. Using this they were able to statistically define the upper and lower climate limits of the “old Arctic” versus the “new Arctic” to look at whether human-linked warming has created a rift between the two scenarios.

They were able to check the reliability of their model by using it to reliably “predict” current climate based on past climate information. The paper notes however that their results incorporated high-end estimates regarding future emissions of greenhouse gases, stating that a significant reduction in these could change the outcome. They looked at air temperature, ice volume, and the shift from rain to snow throughout the year and found that, as the model stands, in some respects the Arctic has already moved into a new climate state.

Changes in Arctic climate have seen the average amount of sea ice in September, when it reaches its annual minimum, drop by 31 percent since the first decade of the satellite era (1979-88). According to their models, the reduction in summer ice has meant that even an unusually cold year will no longer preserve the amount of ice that existed as recently as the mid-20th century throughout the summer months. This represents a significant threat to many Arctic species such as polar bears that rely on summer sea ice to hunt. Existing research has predicted that the Arctic could see ice-free summers as early as 2035.

Autumn and winter air temperatures will also move into a new climate state by the middle of this century according to their model, which will be followed by a seasonal change in precipitation as many more months of the year will see rainfall instead of snow.

"The rate of change is remarkable," said Landrum in a statement. "It's a period of such rapid change that observations of past weather patterns no longer show what you can expect next year. The Arctic is already entering a completely different climate than just a few decades ago."

"The Arctic is likely to experience extremes in sea ice, temperature, and precipitation that are far outside anything that we've experienced before. We need to change our definition of what Arctic climate is."

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2574 LFC

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Posted 23 September 2020 - 03:01 PM

The Antarctic as we knew it is f***ed. It may end up taking many coastal areas with it.

Quote

Nicknamed the “doomsday glacier”, the Thwaites glacier in western Antarctica has the potential to devastate the globe. About the size of Britain, NASA estimates state that if it melted it would increase sea levels by 0.5 meters (1.6 feet). More worrying, however, is the cascade of ice melt it would likely unleash, as the glaciers currently protected from the warming ocean by Thwaites' presence would be exposed, causing a sea level rise that would sink New York City, Miami, and the Netherlands. It's already retreating at an alarming rate, but new research published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences fears this rate could speed up as increasing damage was found to weaken the ice shelf's integrity.

The study used multisource satellite imagery to map how increasing damage to the ice shelf affected its strength, monitoring how sections would crack and fragment from the glacier’s edge. The research focused on the rapid development of damaged areas in the shear zones of Pine Island and Thwaites ice shelves, where the glacier meets the ocean. These damaged areas are made up of open fractures and crevasses where moving ice meets rock and are often the first indicators of catastrophic weakening for ice shelves.

Their modeling revealed that as the ice shelf becomes more damaged, it initiates a feedback process that further weakens the ice shelf, speeding up the development of thinning areas and cracks until sections of ice break away. The discovery brings a fresh perspective for scientists working with sea ice, demonstrating the importance of considering these feedback processes when making sea level rise projections and assessing the stability of surviving ice shelves.

The importance of the Thwaites glacier goes beyond its own survival, as it acts as a barrier between the ever-warming ocean and other glaciers. If it were to melt completely, it could have a cascading effect and bring down ice masses throughout western Antarctica. The resulting release of water into our oceans could see sea levels rise to almost 3 meters (10 feet), devastating coastal settlements across the globe.

“The results of this study suggest that damage feedback processes are key to future ice shelf stability, grounding line retreat, and sea level contributions from Antarctica,” the authors wrote. “Moreover, they underline the need for incorporating these feedback processes, which are currently not accounted for in most ice sheet models, to improve sea level rise projections.”

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2575 LFC

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Posted 24 September 2020 - 09:46 AM

California is going to ban the sale of all gas powered automobiles by 2035. Once again they lead the nation towards a place we need to be.

Quote

California will outlaw sales of new gasoline-powered passenger cars and trucks by 2035, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Wednesday, a move he says will cut greenhouse gas emissions by 35% in the nation’s most populous state.

His plan would not ban people from owning gas-powered cars or selling them on the used car market. But it would end the sales of all new gasoline-powered passenger cars and trucks in the state of nearly 40 million people.

“Pull away from the gas pumps,” Newsom said in announcing his executive order to state regulators to draw up guidelines. “Let us no longer be victims of geopolitical dictators that manipulate global supply chains and global markets.”

White House spokesman Judd Deere said Newsom’s order will hurt the economy and is “yet another example of how extreme the left has become. They want the government to dictate every aspect of every Americans’ life.”

Thanks, Judd, for showing us "yet another example of how extreme the right has become. They don't want the government to solve any problem in American life."


They really do have the clout to change the market.

Quote

California is the world’s fifth-largest economy and Californians account for more than one out of every 10 new vehicles sold in the U.S. — market clout that means Newsom’s order could have a huge impact on the country’s auto industry and the global effort to reduce pollution and combat climate change.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2576 LFC

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Posted 24 September 2020 - 09:55 AM

Here's an analysis from TPM of how a 6-3 SCOTUS could harm efforts to combat climate change.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2577 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 24 September 2020 - 10:29 AM

View PostLFC, on 24 September 2020 - 09:46 AM, said:

California is going to ban the sale of all gas powered automobiles by 2035. Once again they lead the nation towards a place we need to be.

Of course 2035 is insanely late, except that it will do a lot of damage to the market value of cars starting right now.
Much as I love my Forester, I'm not buying any more Subarus since their corporate announcement that they'll be only minimally adopting hybrids and no full-battery models until at least ten years from now. Looks like my next car (fairly soon) is going to be a Model Y.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#2578 LFC

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Posted 24 September 2020 - 11:51 AM

View PostD. C. Sessions, on 24 September 2020 - 10:29 AM, said:

Of course 2035 is insanely late, except that it will do a lot of damage to the market value of cars starting right now.
Much as I love my Forester, I'm not buying any more Subarus since their corporate announcement that they'll be only minimally adopting hybrids and no full-battery models until at least ten years from now. Looks like my next car (fairly soon) is going to be a Model Y.

I'm likely in the market for one more Subaru but the new garage we're putting in is going to be all set up for a charger. There's a good chance the next one or my wife's next one will be electric. She likes the Model 3 and it's affordable.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2579 golden_valley

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Posted 24 September 2020 - 12:20 PM

View PostLFC, on 24 September 2020 - 11:51 AM, said:

I'm likely in the market for one more Subaru but the new garage we're putting in is going to be all set up for a charger. There's a good chance the next one or my wife's next one will be electric. She likes the Model 3 and it's affordable.

It's fine, my husband and I can afford to buy electric vehicles. But unless the price comes down dramatically neither of my kids could afford to buy one. It's hard to afford a gas powered car these days.

#2580 LFC

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Posted 24 September 2020 - 12:30 PM

View Postgolden_valley, on 24 September 2020 - 12:20 PM, said:

It's hard to afford a gas powered car these days.

Well, yes and no. A new one is certainly very pricey but used vehicles are much more affordable. And in a case of "they don't make 'em like they used to" they aren't rolling piles of crap that need to be rebuilt after 100,000 miles. I'm finally starting to have some issues with my 2011 Outback after 235,000 miles. And if you know how I drive and some of the places I've taken it you'd realize that those are 235,000 hard miles. Of course I'd never remotely consider buying a GM product with 100,000 miles on it. Heck, I'd never remotely consider buying a GM product.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer





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