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The All Things Global Warming / Climate Change / Climate Disruption Thread


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#2361 LFC

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Posted 02 January 2020 - 12:53 PM

Australia continues to burn. If you want to know the answer to "How much evidence is required to make the right-wing acknowledge man-made global warming?" the answer is glowingly clear; there is no evidence they'll accept, not even the literal physical destruction of their own nation. Australia isn't just denying global warming. They current government's policy is to increase their use of coal and exacerbate it as they literally burn up. They'd rather rule over the ruins than admit they were wrong.

Quote

In Mallacoota, a coastal resort in southeastern Australia, the fires came in the night and 4,000 people fled for safety to the beach. Volunteer firefighters formed a last line of defense. At 8 a.m., one resident said, “It should have been daylight but it was black like midnight and we could hear the fire roaring…we were terrified for our lives.” Ash was raining on the beach.

At the same time the Lord Mayor of Sydney, Clover Moore, was facing calls to call off one of the city’s most famous events, the New Year’s Eve firework display launched from Sydney Harbour Bridge. Bush fires were ringing the city to the west, casting a pall in the sky, but she refused: The display would “give hope to people at a terrible time.”

A look at the current fire map shows the whole continent of Australia ringed with flame. This is the driest continent on earth, and it is now being cooked by global warming. After the driest spring on record it has had the hottest day, with average highs across the whole country above 107 degrees.

As the apocalypse closed in on Mallacoota the prime minister, Scott Morrison, was AWOL: At first his office denied he was on holiday in Hawaii but when a picture emerged of him there, drinking beer with tourists on a beach, he was forced to head back home.

In New South Wales, the state that includes Sydney, nine million acres have been burned up since November, and 900 homes destroyed.

As well as being hot and dry, much of Australia is also largely flat. Alice Springs, a legendary town in the interior, is an exception, at 1,800 feet above sea level. Last week the temperature reached 113 degrees. “That’s pretty insane” said Dr Andrew Watkins, head of long range forecasting at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Australia’s politicians seem to have no learning curve. Morrison, declaring that this was no time to discuss climate policy, said “We have been through these terrible disasters before, and we have come through the other side.”

Deputy prime minister Michael McCormack said climate concerns were being stoked by “raving inner-city lefties.”

Australia remains heavily committed to coal-fired power stations and has one of the highest per capita greenhouse gas emission rates.

In fact, the 2020 World Climate Change Performance Index, just released, ranks Australia last of the 57 countries it monitors for their climate policies and said that it was actually going backwards under Morrison’s Conservative government. But the opposition Labour party has also been attacked for pro-coal policies.

There is a bone-headed zealotry to climate denial in Australia. Morrison has even gone as far as suggesting that environmental protest groups should be outlawed if they stage demonstrations.

Nonetheless there have been no Trump-style purges of scientists from government departments. Dr. Watkins, the long range forecaster, has explained that a warming of the atmosphere over Antarctica is exacerbating the Australian droughts: “There is nothing left to evaporatively cool the air.”

At the same time, Australia is actually planning increases in fossil fuel production that would mean that by 2030 Australia, with 0.3 percent of the global population, will be responsible for 13 percent of the globally generated greenhouse gases.


Here's more on the 4,000 people trapped on a beach.

Quote

More than 4,000 people, including residents, hundreds of tourists, and children, are trapped on beaches near the town of Mallacoota on Australia’s east coast, surrounded as raging wildfires fueled by strong winds are barreling toward them. Officials are telling them they may need to jump into the sea to save themselves.

David Jeffrey, a local business owner, told BBC News that he and other residents sheltering on an adjacent beach nearby were preparing to jump into the sea before sudden winds pushed the flames in the other direction. “There’s a rock wall that they’ve built to keep back the sea, and that was where we were going to jump into the water if the radiant heat had hit,” he told BBC by Skype. “It looks a lot like Armageddon. It’s terrifying.”

The Australian government announced that it is readying naval ships and military helicopters to carry out evacuations after all roads leading to the area are now blocked by raging blazes. More than 200 fires are now burning across the the states of New South Wales and Victoria.


Here's the reaction to their "PM's visit.

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Australia’s prime minister was heckled by furious locals as he visited a town that has been devastated by wildfires. Scott Morrison took a trip to Cobargo, where father and son Robert and Patrick Salway lost their lives this week when bushfires blazed through the area. In a video posted by the Sydney Morning Herald, locals shouted at Morrison before he made a quick getaway in a government vehicle. The prime minister was called a “moron” and an “idiot” and told to “piss off.” The state of New South Wales declared a week-long state of emergency on Thursday and tourists have were told to leave a 200km stretch of coast as bushfires continue to devastate the region. High temperatures and strong winds are forecast to continue, leading to “widespread extreme fire danger.” Morrison defended his climate policies Wednesday following intense criticism.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2362 pnwguy

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Posted 02 January 2020 - 01:07 PM

View PostLFC, on 02 January 2020 - 12:53 PM, said:

Australia continues to burn. If you want to know the answer to "How much evidence is required to make the right-wing acknowledge man-made global warming?" the answer is glowingly clear; there is no evidence they'll accept, not even the literal physical destruction of their own nation. Australia isn't just denying global warming. They current government's policy is to increase their use of coal and exacerbate it as they literally burn up. They'd rather rule over the ruins than admit they were wrong.

It seems that every country that Rupert Murdoch has corrupted with his brand of "journalism" becomes ungovernable, with a dumbing down of the population. I hope Beelzebuddy has a particularly nasty chamber set aside for his arrival, which can't happen soon enough.
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#2363 LFC

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Posted 02 January 2020 - 01:44 PM

More on Australia. One additional twist is that farmers are losing topsoil to harsh drought coupled with strong winds. Good luck rebuilding that if the rains ever even come back well enough for you to farm that land again.

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The fires have already killed at least 17 people, torched more than 13.5 million acres, and destroyed more than 900 homes since September. The blazes made breathing the air in Sydney as bad as smoking 37 cigarettes and have killed 480 million animals, environmental officials told the Times in the United Kingdom, including nearly one-third of the koalas in one of Australia’s most populated koala habitats, an area 240 miles north of Sydney.

The fires have triggered more rounds of evacuation orders this week in New South Wales with officials warning of heat, fires, blocked roads, and power outages. NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian declared a state of emergency in response to the fires earlier in December.

The ongoing severe heat is accompanied by brisk winds across much of Australia, worsening fire risks. Wind speeds gusted up to 60 mph on Monday and more strong winds are expected to fan flames and push deadly smoke over major cities. Fire risk in parts of the country will reach “extreme” and “catastrophic” levels on Friday and Saturday, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology.

It’s currently summer in Australia, and high temperatures, dry weather, and wildfires are not unusual this time of year. But the severity and continued persistence of these conditions are alarming.

Writing in the Sydney Morning Herald, veterinarian Gundi Rhoades described the conditions for ranchers in Inverell, a town in NSW, in apocalyptic terms:

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Most farmers in my district have not a blade of grass remaining on their properties. Topsoil has been blown away by the terrible, strong winds this spring and summer. We have experienced the hottest days that I can remember, and right now I can’t even open any windows because my eyes sting and lungs hurt from bushfire smoke.

For days, I have watched as the bushland around us went up like a tinderbox. I just waited for the next day when my clinic would be flooded with evacuated dogs, cats, goats and horses in desperate need of water and food.

The extreme heat in Australia this week is not just a fluke. There were unique patterns in rain, temperature, and wind that converged this year to scorch the continent, factors that scientists were able to detect in advance. But Australia is also deep in the throes of the accelerating climate crisis, facing not just extreme heat but changes in rainfall patterns. These shifts in turn stand to worsen other problems like drought and wildfires. At the same time, the Australian government is struggling to limit its own contributions to climate change and appease its major greenhouse gas emitters, including its powerful coal mining industry.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2364 pnwguy

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Posted 02 January 2020 - 03:21 PM

View PostLFC, on 02 January 2020 - 01:44 PM, said:

At the same time, the Australian government is struggling to limit its own contributions to climate change and appease its major greenhouse gas emitters, including its powerful coal mining industry.

Time to send in Moscow Mitch to help the unfairly targeted coal mining industry!
"All glory to the HypnoTrump, or else..."

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#2365 HockeyDon

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Posted 02 January 2020 - 03:29 PM

Maybe the Mad Max movies aren't set in an Australian post-nuclear apocalypse after all. Just a post-climate change apocalypse.
Well, fuck.

How can I be expected to distinguish BS from reality when so much of my reality is utter BS?!

#2366 LFC

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Posted 02 January 2020 - 05:02 PM

View PostHockeyDon, on 02 January 2020 - 03:29 PM, said:

Maybe the Mad Max movies aren't set in an Australian post-nuclear apocalypse after all. Just a post-climate change apocalypse.

To be fair what in our solar system is more nuclear than the sun?
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2367 AnBr

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Posted 02 January 2020 - 09:37 PM

View Postpnwguy, on 02 January 2020 - 01:07 PM, said:

It seems that every country that Rupert Murdoch has corrupted with his brand of "journalism" becomes ungovernable, with a dumbing down of the population. I hope Beelzebuddy has a particularly nasty chamber set aside for his arrival, which can't happen soon enough.

The chamber next to the one already occupied by Roger Ailes.
“Trump’s a stupid man’s idea of a smart person, a poor man’s idea of a rich person & a weak man’s idea of a strong man.”

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“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937

#2368 HockeyDon

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Posted 03 January 2020 - 06:13 AM

View PostLFC, on 02 January 2020 - 05:02 PM, said:

To be fair what in our solar system is more nuclear than the sun?

A Trumper tantrum on Twitter?
Well, fuck.

How can I be expected to distinguish BS from reality when so much of my reality is utter BS?!

#2369 LFC

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Posted 03 January 2020 - 09:42 AM

View PostHockeyDon, on 03 January 2020 - 06:13 AM, said:

A Trumper tantrum on Twitter?

More a pathetic nuclear wannabe.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2370 AnBr

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Posted 03 January 2020 - 02:05 PM

Posted Image

Big oil asks government to protect its Texas facilities from climate change
“Trump’s a stupid man’s idea of a smart person, a poor man’s idea of a rich person & a weak man’s idea of a strong man.”

— Fran Lebowitz


“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937

#2371 LFC

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Posted 03 January 2020 - 02:50 PM

View PostAnBr, on 03 January 2020 - 02:05 PM, said:


They've been at this since last year. Handouts are only for big companies, not actual human beings you know.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2372 LFC

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Posted 06 January 2020 - 01:08 PM

What is the chance that this might wake Australia's conservatives up to the reality of global warming? My guess is right about 0%.

Quote

The Australian government department responsible for managing emergencies closed down its Canberra office due to poor air quality Monday as the 20th death from deadly bushfires in New South Wales was confirmed. Canberra had a toxic rating of more than 340 on the Air Quality Index, and the Department of Home Affairs told nonessential staff to stay away from its Canberra headquarters, and the Department of Health told staff not to work out of one of its locations.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2373 LFC

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Posted 07 January 2020 - 03:47 PM

The toll from the tragedy in Australia continues to mount, not that their "conservative" government will ever admit to the problem. Like the U.S. their right-wing is filled to the brim with short-term profit nihilists who believe in extracting every last dollar today with zero planning for the future.

Quote

More than one billion animals have been killed during Australia’s bushfire disaster, according to an ecologist from the University of Sydney. The ecologist, Chris Dickman, told HuffPost that his initial estimate of 480 million dead animals is now out of date and that he can say that more than one billion animals have been killed “without any doubt at all.” Dickman said: “The original figure—the 480 million—was based on mammals, birds, and reptiles for which we do have densities, and that figure now is a little bit out of date. It’s over 800 million given the extent of the fires now, in New South Wales alone.” He went on to say that, if other animals such as bats, frogs, and invertebrates were included, the number far exceeds a billion. An environmental scientist at the World Wildlife Fund Australia, Stuart Blanch, agreed with the estimate, saying a billion was a modest guess. It’s been reported that Australian officials will be forced to kill thousands of camels in the northwest because they’re consuming too much water.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2374 LFC

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 01:04 PM

Looks like there was a "pause" in 2019 so clearly global warming is a hoax.

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2019 was the second hottest year on record and ended the hottest decade in history, the European Union’s climate monitoring service said Wednesday.

Data released by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) showed that worldwide temperatures last year were second only to 2016, in which temperatures were boosted 0.12 degrees Celsius by an exceptionally strong El Nino natural weather event.

The average temperature in 2019 was only a few hundredths of a degree below the 2016 level.

The five last years have been the hottest on record, and the period of 2010-2019 was the hottest decade since records began, C3S said.

Globally temperatures in 2019 were 0.6 Celsius warmer than the 1981-2010 average. Earth’s temperature over the last five years was 1.1C-1.2C warmer than pre-industrial times.

Last year was Europe’s hottest ever.

“2019 has been another exceptionally warm year, in fact the second warmest globally in our dataset, with many of the individual months breaking records,” said Carlo Buontempo, head of C3S.

2019 was just 0.04C cooler than 2016, which saw temperatures boosted by a once-in-a-century strength El Nino.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2375 LFC

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 04:17 PM

Global warming is causing increased flood risk from Himalayan glacial lakes.

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The austere beauty of the Himalayas is belied by the fragility of its lakes in the face of climate change. The danger is not only to the stability of the environment but to the people who live downstream of these lakes, right in the path of flooding.

"Sustained glacier melt in the Himalayas has gradually spawned more than 5,000 glacier lakes that are dammed by potentially unstable moraines," report University of Potsdam researchers in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "When such dams break, glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) can cause catastrophic societal and geomorphic impacts."

The lakes form from glacier melt, flowing down mountains and pooling in crevasses. Pushed along by a glacier, accumulations of dirt and rocks held together with ice, called moraines, act as a barrier. However, if this ice melts, the barrier gives way and the water can result in flooding.

To make a projection of glacier melt in the Himalayas, the team carried out 5.4 billion simulations using topographic and satellite data. They found that 5,000 lakes in the Himalayas have moraines that are unstable in the face of rising temperatures. To add to the cautionary report, they note that the lakes with the largest volume of water are also those with the highest risk of glacial lake outburst floods.

With the threat of climate change looming large, they say these future hazards needs to be taken into account, especially given increasing trends in population, buildings, and hydropower projects in Himalayan headwaters.

"Regional projections for the lower Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra rivers hold that flood frequencies will rise noticeably in the 21st century, putting the livelihoods of 220 million people at risk," they write. "In Himalayan headwaters, such prognoses have disregarded episodic, but potentially destructive, floods from the sudden emptying of moraine dammed lakes."

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2376 LFC

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Posted 08 January 2020 - 04:18 PM

The change in weather over recent years has been impacted by global warming every day. Or as the article says, "Every. Single. Day."

Quote

Despite the overwhelming evidence for climate change, deniers love to point out that it can still sometimes be a bit chilly outside as a basis for their ridiculous arguments. Scientists will naturally counter such claims by explaining the difference between weather and climate, but having been repeatedly ignored, researchers are now confronting the skeptics on their own terms by showing how the weather paints a picture of global warming. Every. Single. Day.

Publishing their findings in the journal Nature Climate Change, the study authors looked at weather readings taken at multiple locations across the world to calculate the global daily temperature going back several decades. When comparing this average global temperature to the expected values based on statistical models, the researchers were able to identify the “fingerprint” of climate change on any given day.

Results showed that global temperatures have been higher than natural models predicted every single day since March 2012, suggesting that the weather can indeed be taken as an indicator of climate change.

Aside from highlighting the alarming consistency of the trend towards global warming, these findings could also help to transform the dialog around climate change. Until now, skeptics had pointed to every cold snap as proof that climate change isn’t real. In response, scientists have pointed out that conclusions about the climate can only be derived from looking at long-term trends, rather than from the weather on a given day.

Yet this new study reveals that, when observed globally, the weather on any one day can in fact reveal key information about the state of our climate. In other words, even if it is unseasonably cold in one particular place, the average global temperature on that day will still be higher than it should be according to natural climate change models.

The “weather-is-not-climate” argument may, therefore, need revising, as while it is true that regional temperatures give little away, global weather does in fact reflect climate change.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2377 LFC

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Posted 12 January 2020 - 04:26 PM

This is two years old but coverage of it is resurrecting, as it should.

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The overwhelming consensus on climate change in the scientific community is that it's real, and it's man-made. The most commonly-cited figure is that 97.1 percent of scientific studies support the view that climate change is caused by humans.

Even though this is an overwhelming consensus, it has still left room for climate-change deniers to claim that maybe the 2.9 percent are right.

"Today, the global warming alarmists are the equivalent of the flat-Earthers," Ted Cruz famously said a few years ago. "It used to be [that] it is accepted scientific wisdom the Earth is flat, and this heretic named Galileo was branded a denier."

However, a study has already looked at the 3 percent of studies denying climate change is man-made and has found that every single one of them was flawed.

Now, one of its authors, atmospheric scientist Katharine Hayhoe, has taken to Facebook to slam climate change deniers in a strongly-worded viral post.

Quote

Is there such a strong consensus in the scientific community on climate change simply because anyone proposing alternate explanations is black-balled and suppressed?

This is one of the most frequent questions I get here on Facebook.

It's a lot easier for someone to claim they've been suppressed than to admit that maybe they can't find the scientific evidence to support their political ideology that requires them to reject climate solutions and, to be consistent, 150 years of solid, peer-reviewed science, too.

But over the last 10 years, at least 38 papers were published in peer-reviewed journals, each claiming various reasons why climate wasn't changing, or if it was, it wasn't humans, or it wasn't bad. They weren't suppressed. They're out there, where anyone can find them.

So we took those papers and - thanks to the superhuman efforts of my colleague Rasmus Benestad - recalculated all their analyses. From scratch.

And you know what we found?

Every single one of those analyses had an error - in their assumptions, methodology, or analysis - that, when corrected, brought their results into line with the scientific consensus.

It's real, it's us, it's serious.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

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#2378 LFC

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Posted 12 January 2020 - 04:30 PM

Follow-up on Katherine Hayhoe's Facebook post where she sci-splains the difference between science and statistics for those who tried to shoot down her point. Bold is mine.

Quote

An Important Difference Between Statistical and Physical Sciences

Several on this post have commented that our study should have sampled an equal number of studies that concluded in favour of anthropogenic warming, in order to demonstrate whether or not there is a higher rate of error in the ones that conclude otherwise.

If the goal of our study were to demonstrate this, we absolutely should have done that. I completely agree.

I also agree that this would be a great doctoral dissertation for someone. Any takers? I'm happy to advise if needed!

However, the armchair critiques of this study - and their inability to understand that this was NOT the goal of our analysis - illustrate one of the key and fascinating differences between statistical and physical sciences.

In statistics, statistics are all you have to prove your hypothesis. Thus, it is essential to examine both sides of the question to draw conclusions.

In physical sciences, we use statistics. A lot. And I respect statisticians enormously. But we have more than statistics to prove our hypotheses. We have data, observation, theory, and experimentation that helps us understand not just what is happening, and not just if there is a correlation or statistical relationship between cause and effect, but the actual physical MECHANISM by which the process is occurring.


As this Global Weirding video demonstrates, the basic science linking combustion of fossil fuels to the increase in atmospheric temperature has been established since the 1800s. It is not a matter of statistics and correlations. It is a matter of understanding the mechanism. Watch -> https://youtu.be/XpqBto89i38

Burning fossil fuels produces CO2. We know this because we can measure the carbon content of the fuel and the gases emitted when it burns. CO2 absorbs infrared or heat energy and re-emits it isotropically (in all directions). We know this not because of statistics, but because of our fundamental understanding of the properties and wavelengths of energy at which the vibrational and rotational bands of the CO2 molecule absorb and emit. Radiative transfer and nonlinear fluid dynamics are such basic sciences, in fact, that we use them in common everyday ways all the time -> they explain how our stoves work, how airplanes fly, and even how we design our cars.

As atmospheric scientists and physicists, rather than statisticians, the goal of our study above was NOT to determine whether studies concluding humans were not responsible for warming had more errors than studies that conclude the opposite. (Not that that isn't a worthy goal. I'd love to see someone do it.)

But no - our purpose was to scratch that last itch that a truly skeptical scientist always has. It was to determine whether there might possibly be a legitimate physical mechanism that someone else had discovered that could explain how humans were NOT warming the planet. And to discover whether that mechanism might exist, of course we would study only publications claiming there was one - not publications claiming that there wasn't.

This motivation may be even more clear in one of my very favourite studies, by Bruce Anderson, where he asked, what if there is some unknown factor we don't know about that is causing the warming? Read his analysis, here -> http://journals.amet...LI-D-11-00645.1

All this to say - you can understand why the results of this analysis felt like a good dose of calamine lotion! The itch is assuaged (for now).

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2379 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 12 January 2020 - 04:41 PM

View PostLFC, on 08 January 2020 - 01:04 PM, said:

Quote

2019 was just 0.04C cooler than 2016, which saw temperatures boosted by a once-in-a-century strength El Nino.

Is that like a "500-year flood?" The ones we get about as often as Presidential elections?
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#2380 baw1064

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Posted 12 January 2020 - 07:33 PM

View PostD. C. Sessions, on 12 January 2020 - 04:41 PM, said:

Is that like a "500-year flood?" The ones we get about as often as Presidential elections?

Well, we just had a "once in 500 years" Presidential election (at least I hope so), so why not?
“We are happy to announce that the health of the President is decidedly better, the disease with which he was afflicted having assumed a more favorable aspect.”

--Newspaper article, April 1,1841, three days before the death of William Henry Harrison





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