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The All Things Global Warming / Climate Change / Climate Disruption Thread


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#2341 LFC

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Posted 06 December 2019 - 05:32 PM

Polar Bears in Russia are having a hard time of it.

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More than 50 polar bears have gathered on the edge of a village in Russia’s far north, environmentalists and residents said, as weak Arctic ice leaves them unable to roam.

The Russian branch of the World Wildlife Fund said climate change was to blame, as unusually warm temperatures prevented coastal ice from forming.

The WWF said 56 polar bears had gathered in a one-square-kilometer (0.4-square-mile) area near the village of Ryrkaipy in Chukotka on the northeastern tip of Russia.

There were concerns they could enter the village, home to fewer than 1,000 people, and patrols had been set up to monitor their movements.

“The number of human and predator encounters in the Arctic is increasing,” the WWF said in statement.

“The main reason is the decline of sea ice area due to the changing climate. In the absence of ice cover, animals are forced to go ashore in search of food.”

Residents had gathered walrus carcasses in the area to try to keep the bears from wandering into the village.

“We have created a feeding point with walrus carcasses that we gathered along the coast,” Tatyana Minenko of the local “Bear Patrol” told news agency RIA Novosti.

“As long as there is no big freeze, the sea ice will not form and the bears will stay on the coast,” she said.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2342 LFC

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Posted 06 December 2019 - 06:59 PM

The models predicting warming were right and have been for decades. The "skeptics" were wrong. Done. The science is now settled unless the "skeptics" can produce real contrary evidence. At this point they can take their cherry picking, blatant failures interpreting / intentional mischaracterizations of actual science, and nitpicking of others' research, put it into a sharp edged metal box, and shove it where the sun don't shine.

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Scientists have for decades created accurate models to predict the future impacts of global warming, a new study has found.

Published in Geophysical Research Letters on Wednesday, the research examines 15 climate models used between 1970 and 2007 to predict how warm the Earth was going to become. Now that the world has lived through the years for which those scientists were churning out global warming estimates, researchers were able to determine that their predecessors did a hell of a job building models that could accurately predict the global surface temperature rise associated with greenhouse gas emissions.

“[Global surface temperature] is the first thing people think about with climate change or global warming,” study author Henri Drake, a Ph.D. candidate at the Massachusets Institute of Technology and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Joint Program, told Earther. “And that does tell you something about other things because things like extreme rainfall are correlated with temperature, so chances are if you predicted the temperature well, you also predicted some of these other things well.”

Climate models rely on two key pieces of information: how much might humans emit in a future given date and a scientific understanding of the Earth’s physical response to those emissions.

We can’t know for certain how much we’ll emit in the future because that has little to do with science and more to do with policy, economies, and, well, people. So while studies published during the decades of analysis may have been off in their specific predictions of warming, that’s only because they inaccurately estimated how much greenhouse gases we’d wind up emitting.

So what this team—which includes scientists from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology—did was input the actual amount of global greenhouse emissions into the models to see if they’d accurately predict the global temperature rise since the models were created. And they did.

Drake and his team next want to see how well these models did at forecasting different regional patterns within these global temperature increases. That’s their next endeavor, but if scientists of the 20th century were accurately predicting the heat we’re all experiencing today, imagine what the newer, more robust models may accomplish.

“Presumably, they will do a better job of predicting global warming,” Drake said.

These current models go deeper than rising temperatures, too. They provide details on what a hotter Earth will mean for our communities: increased sea level rise, increased snowfall, heat waves. That’s what actually matters to people. They need to see what these global changes will look like locally.

And climate models help make this possible. It’s impossible to know what the future will look like, but science can give us a damn good idea.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2343 Traveler

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Posted 07 December 2019 - 09:24 AM

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View PostRich T Bikkies, on 06 December 2019 - 05:26 AM, said:

In the graun today: Australia fires: five blazes merge north of Sydney as conditions forecast to worsen


This sounds worse than California. I mean, you know, Sydney and all that.

Link missing.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
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#2344 Traveler

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Posted 07 December 2019 - 09:27 AM

That is one messed up link there Rich. Better check your machine.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#2345 Rich T Bikkies

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Posted 07 December 2019 - 10:41 AM

View PostTraveler, on 07 December 2019 - 09:27 AM, said:

That is one messed up link there Rich. Better check your machine.

Can't find a link that works. But you're not missing much, so won't bother.
Reality is a hallucination caused by alcohol deprivation.

Only Satan can rebuke sin. The righteous don't know enough.

God is not dead. He was merely voted out of office.

You can do anything with anybody if you just save them the trouble of thinking.

#2346 LFC

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Posted 07 December 2019 - 11:38 AM

View PostRich T Bikkies, on 07 December 2019 - 10:41 AM, said:

Can't find a link that works. But you're not missing much, so won't bother.

This looks like.

Quote

Five fires burning to the north of Sydney joined up into one huge conflagration on Friday, with out-of-control blazes threatening homes and lives.

On a day that brought choking smog to Sydney, the premier of New South Wales said the entire coastline of the state was on fire.

Six people have died, and more than 680 homes have already been lost to bushfires in NSW this fire season, and on Friday more than 100 fires were burning, more than half of them out of control. Eight fires have emergency warnings, which means they pose an immediate risk to lives and property.

The largest fire – a conglomeration of five blazes which have joined up north of Sydney – has burned over 335,000 hectares.

For us Americans that's 828,000 acres or 1,293 square miles.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2347 Rich T Bikkies

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Posted 07 December 2019 - 12:41 PM

View PostLFC, on 07 December 2019 - 11:38 AM, said:


Yep, that's the one. Don't know what went wrong there.
Reality is a hallucination caused by alcohol deprivation.

Only Satan can rebuke sin. The righteous don't know enough.

God is not dead. He was merely voted out of office.

You can do anything with anybody if you just save them the trouble of thinking.

#2348 golden_valley

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Posted 07 December 2019 - 01:42 PM

View PostRich T Bikkies, on 07 December 2019 - 12:41 PM, said:

Yep, that's the one. Don't know what went wrong there.

Having lived through similar conditions last year I feel for everyone involved. There's not much to be done but hope for some nice rain.

#2349 LFC

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 04:23 PM

Greenland is losing ice 7X faster than 1990s. This matches the worst predictions.

Quote

Greenland is losing ice seven times faster than it was in the 1990s.

The assessment comes from an international team of polar scientists who've reviewed all the satellite observations over a 26-year period.

They say Greenland's contribution to sea-level rise is currently tracking what had been regarded as a pessimistic projection of the future.

It means an additional 7cm of ocean rise could now be expected by the end of the century from Greenland alone.

This threatens to put many millions more people in low-lying coastal regions at risk of flooding.

It's estimated roughly a billion live today less than 10m above current high-tide lines, including 250 million below 1m.

"Storms, if they happen against a baseline of higher seas - they will break flood defences," said Prof Andy Shepherd, of Leeds University.

"The simple formula is that around the planet, six million people are brought into a flooding situation for every centimetre of sea-level rise. So, when you hear about a centimetre rise, it does have impacts," he told BBC News.

Posted Image

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2350 AnBr

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Posted 12 December 2019 - 04:50 PM

East Siberian Sea Is Boiling With Methane
“Trump’s a stupid man’s idea of a smart person, a poor man’s idea of a rich person & a weak man’s idea of a strong man.”

— Fran Lebowitz


“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937

#2351 LFC

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Posted 13 December 2019 - 02:15 PM

Vox covered the problems humans will likely face with the melting of the permafrost. This is one I had never heard of before.

Quote

It’s also important to note that carbon isn’t the only pollutant trapped in the ice. A new study in Geophysical Research Letters found that the Arctic permafrost is the largest repository of mercury on Earth. Mercury is a potent neurotoxin. And scientists now think there is around 15 million gallons of mercury frozen in permafrost soils — nearly twice the amount of mercury found in all other soil, the ocean, and the atmosphere combined.

“The release of heavy metals, particularly mercury, and other legacy contaminants currently stored in glaciers and permafrost, is projected to reduce water quality for freshwater biota [i.e. life], household use and irrigation,” the IPCC states.

Scientists don’t know how much of this mercury could be released, or when. But they do know this: Continued melting makes it more likely that the mercury will be released, pollute the ocean, and accumulate in the food chain.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2352 JackD

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Posted 13 December 2019 - 03:49 PM

And methane in the permafrost.

#2353 LFC

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Posted 14 December 2019 - 11:06 AM

Posted Image

Posted Image
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#2354 Rich T Bikkies

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Posted 14 December 2019 - 02:18 PM

Deleted
Reality is a hallucination caused by alcohol deprivation.

Only Satan can rebuke sin. The righteous don't know enough.

God is not dead. He was merely voted out of office.

You can do anything with anybody if you just save them the trouble of thinking.

#2355 AnBr

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Posted 14 December 2019 - 10:43 PM

View PostJackD, on 13 December 2019 - 03:49 PM, said:

And methane in the permafrost.

http://www.talkradio...post__p__198493
“Trump’s a stupid man’s idea of a smart person, a poor man’s idea of a rich person & a weak man’s idea of a strong man.”

— Fran Lebowitz


“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937





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