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The All Things Global Warming / Climate Change / Climate Disruption Thread


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#1781 baw1064

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 02:42 PM

Here's the raw data for CFC-11 (CFCl3 -- the compound in question). You can see in the contour plot of concentration vs. latitude and time that something strange is happening specifically in the northern hemisphere. (most of the world's population and therefore most emissions are in the northern hemisphere, and it takes 10-15 years for concentrations to equalize between hemispheres. So a difference in concentrations between hemispheres points to recent emissions, as opposed to residual compounds released decades ago).

https://www.esrl.noa...ined/CFC11.html

And for comparison, CFC-12 (CF2Cl2), which is chemically similar, and was outlawed at the same time (but has a longer atmospheric lifetime). CFC-12 isn't showing any funny business--currently the concentration is essentially independent of latitude, and is decreasing at a steady rate.

https://www.esrl.noa...ined/CFC12.html

Isn't it nice to have publicly available data so we can actually check for ourselves whether what's been reported actually is consistent with what's been observed!
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#1782 baw1064

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 03:39 PM

Hmm, maybe this topic belongs in a different thread:

http://time.com/5279...s-rising-again/

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Countries have reported close to zero emissions of the chemical since 2006 but the study found about 14,300 tons (13,000 metric tons) a year has been released since 2013. Some seeps out of foam and buildings and machines, but scientists say what they’re seeing is much more than that.

Measurements from a dozen monitors around the world suggest the emissions are coming from somewhere around China, Mongolia and the Koreas, according to the study.

So which country? China and South Korea already phased out CFCs a decade or more ago, so why would they have suddenly gone back to making CFC-11 surreptitiously in 2013? I know who my money is on...
“Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, Nothing is going to get better. It's not.” --Dr. Seuss

#1783 baw1064

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Posted 17 May 2018 - 12:15 PM

For reference, the researchers' estimate of current releases of CFC-11 are about 2-3% of the peak worldwide annual release (which occurred in 1988). So this is small compared to 30 years ago, but nevertheless represents a very substantial production (think a largish chemical plant). Hard to imagine this has happened without the approval of a national, or at least a regional, government.

CFC-11 was used mostly as a blowing agent for foam insulation, in large scale industrial chillers, and for precision cleaning. Not so much for small air conditioners (CFC-12 was the predominant compound for that).
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#1784 LFC

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Posted 17 May 2018 - 01:52 PM

We've hit our 400th consecutive month with temperatures above the 20th century average or as Republicans call it "natural variation", now with less (no) variation.

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It was December 1984, and President Reagan had just been elected to his second term, Dynasty was the top show on TV and Madonna's Like a Virgin topped the musical charts.

It was also the last time the Earth had a cooler-than-average month.

Last month marked the planet's 400th consecutive month with above-average temperatures, federal scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday.

The cause for the streak? Unquestionably, it’s climate change, caused by humanity's burning of fossil fuels.

"We live in and share a world that is unequivocally, appreciably and consequentially warmer than just a few decades ago, and our world continues to warm," said NOAA climate scientist Deke Arndt. "Speeding by a '400' sign only underscores that, but it does not prove anything new."

Climate scientists use the 20th-century average as a benchmark for global temperature measurements. That's because it's fixed in time, allowing for consistent "goal posts" when reviewing climate data. It's also a sufficiently long period to include several cycles of climate variability.


"The thing that really matters is that, by whatever metric, we've spent every month for several decades on the warm side of any reasonable baseline," Arndt said.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

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#1785 DCoronata

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Posted 17 May 2018 - 02:29 PM

View PostLFC, on 17 May 2018 - 01:52 PM, said:

We've hit our 400th consecutive month with temperatures above the 20th century average or as Republicans call it "natural variation", now with less (no) variation.

I haven't done the math yet (busy today) but the standard deviation on the first four months is amazingly quiet. Gotta be about 0.03°C on an anomaly of 0.82°C. Might be the smallest of any year for the first four months on record.

So what does that mean? I'm guessing it means the oceans are the stabilizing influence and we might be seeing less variation than in recent years. I've got to find the time to run the math...

Quick edit- screw the first four months, it's been like this for the last twelve months!

#1786 LFC

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Posted 17 May 2018 - 03:09 PM

View PostDCoronata, on 17 May 2018 - 02:29 PM, said:

I haven't done the math yet (busy today) but the standard deviation on the first four months is amazingly quiet. Gotta be about 0.03°C on an anomaly of 0.82°C. Might be the smallest of any year for the first four months on record.

So what does that mean? I'm guessing it means the oceans are the stabilizing influence and we might be seeing less variation than in recent years. I've got to find the time to run the math...

Quick edit- screw the first four months, it's been like this for the last twelve months!

Calm before the storm? Or maybe it's another "pause" like the last one that didn't actually occur because the oceans absorbed the bulk of the energy. Scary stuff.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#1787 LFC

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Posted 17 May 2018 - 04:31 PM

THE STUPID! IT BURNS! I really think that being dropped hard on your head as a baby is now a requirement to be a Congressional Republican. This is quite possibly even dumber than Senator Snowball's spectacularly moronic display. Of course they put this ignoramus on the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee where his profound ignorance is a feature, not a bugt.

Quote

Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL) on Wednesday claimed that falling “rock or whatever” is contributing to rising sea-levels and that global warming was actually causing the Antarctic ice sheets to grow, not shrink, trade publication E&E News reported.

During a hearing before the House Science, Space and Technology Committee on how technology can be used to address global warming, Brooks tried to convince Philip Duffy, the president of the Woods Hole Research Center and a former senior adviser to the Global Change Research Program, that soil and rocks falling into the ocean off of cliffs along the coast of California was causing sea levels to rise. He also argued that sedimentary and silt from large rivers, like the Mississippi, were contributing to the problem.

“Every time you have that soil or rock or whatever it is that is deposited into the seas, that forces the sea levels to rise, because now you have less space in those oceans, because the bottom is moving up,” Brooks said, according to the report.

Duffy said that the impact of rocks falling into the ocean was causing “minuscule effects” when assessed on “human time scales.”

Brooks then argued that ice sheets in the Antarctic are growing, not shrinking, which, according to E&E News, was accurate a few years ago, but is not relevant to the global warming debate because “different factors affect the Arctic and Antarctic rates of melting.” Duffy told Brooks that he had satellite records that show “an acceleration” of the shrinkage of the Antarctic ice sheet.

“Well, I’ve got a NASA base in my district, and apparently, they’re telling you one thing and me a different thing,” Brooks reportedly said. “But there are plenty of studies that have come that show with respect to Antarctica that the total ice sheet, particularly that above land, is increasing, not decreasing. Now, you could make a different argument if you want to talk about Greenland or the Arctic.”


FYI here's what NASA says about the ice in the Antarctic. Brooks was, of course, mistaken or lying.

Read this and recall that just a day or two ago David Brooks said the left was condescending. Sorry, David, but when something is this monumentally stupid and being uttered but somebody who gets a vote in Congress then it's a public duty to call it out for what it is.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#1788 DCoronata

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 08:35 AM

View PostLFC, on 17 May 2018 - 04:31 PM, said:


FYI here's what NASA says about the ice in the Antarctic. Brooks was, of course, mistaken or lying.

Read this and recall that just a day or two ago David Brooks said the left was condescending. Sorry, David, but when something is this monumentally stupid and being uttered but somebody who gets a vote in Congress then it's a public duty to call it out for what it is.

Rather astonishing, you would think his staff wouldn't let him make a retard out of himself on the stand like that. And yeah,even more egregious seeing how GRACE totally disagrees with his statements on Antarctica.

There's stupid, there's really stupid, there's Alabama stupid, and then there's Alabama Republican stupid.

#1789 DCoronata

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 11:39 AM

View PostLFC, on 17 May 2018 - 03:09 PM, said:

Calm before the storm? Or maybe it's another "pause" like the last one that didn't actually occur because the oceans absorbed the bulk of the energy. Scary stuff.
http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
Okay, the last time (in fact the "only time) it was this quiet was in 2006. The winter of 2005-2006 was a weak La Nina winter and the next year was a weak El Nino event. Global temperatures really go "step-wise" on strong El Nino years.

For example- the three very strong El Nino events happened in the winters of '82-83, '97-98, and '15-16. Now we don't have five years of data yet for the last one but if we look at the five year average before the El Nino and the five year average after it, the differences are insignificant for '82-83, 0.15°C for 1998-1999, and 0.28°C for '15-16.

There is another issue with AGW- they discuss the "change per decade) over long time frames, but the system was really far more chaotic before 1975-1978. There was almost no change in temperatures (~1880-1930) followed by slightly accelerated change from 1930-1980, and a massive increase of roughly 0.20°C per decade since then. It has been argued that the major change wasn't in global warming emissions, but amazingly enough, a reduction in "global cooling" particulates, especially sulfides and "smog". Inefficient burning of hydrocarbons releases soot, particles that block the transmission of photons from the sun to the ground. These increase the effective albedo of the planet, turning it into a "reflector" of light. As we've improved the technology we've reduced air pollution dramatically, which reduces the particulate stream, reflecting less light out into space, allowing more heat to the planet's surface and then reabsorbing more IR from the surface in the atmosphere.

Clear skies = increased global warming. And then it all goes downhill from there, increased trapping of heat, decreased albedo (ice is a fantastic reflector, water is a brilliant absorber of sunlight) and now you have a positive feedback system rather than a slight negative feedback. That's how you get not just increased global heat, but increased apparent insolation.





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