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#1 Traveler

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Posted 09 February 2020 - 08:28 PM

I sure hope this thread dies out. I don't think it will. Been following this as close as I can via NYT and SCMP. What we see is not what we are getting. For one nice little window into the debacle in Wuhan, see the Mail. I am just going to post a bunch of URLs instead of trying to name them. Just scroll through. Look at that super spreader article. Then look at 5 million fleeing Wuhan before the lockdown. This was nasty enough to kill the doctor who warned everyone. Who was chastised. some more juicy stuff. Like watching folks ripped from their apartments.

This is absolutely fucking serious. Read what the epidemiologists are saying. So far, the CCP has done what it could, once it woke up. The question is, was it in time? Seems like we are doing well, but this disease has very high transmission coefficient, which combined with lethality, makes is major concern for me. I hope I am a pollyanna. A few links:


Another insight: https://www.inkstonenews.com/health/police-letter-tried-keep-chinese-doctor-li-wenliang-warning-
An index: coronavirus/article/3049555https://www.dailymai...irus/index.html
A nice summary: https://www.dailymai...oronavirus.html

The Mail is far more on top of this than anyone. This will bear some close attention for hopefully only another couple of months.
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#2 Practical Girl

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Posted 09 February 2020 - 08:43 PM

Haven't we been talking about this on another thread? Help- I'm either lost or my imagination has gotten away from me. :)
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#3 Bact PhD

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Posted 09 February 2020 - 09:08 PM

View PostPractical Girl, on 09 February 2020 - 08:43 PM, said:

Haven't we been talking about this on another thread? Help- I'm either lost or my imagination has gotten away from me. :)

Not your imagination. Much of the subject has been discussed on the “The most predictable disaster...” thread in Non-Political. However, given the intersection of pestilence with Chinese politics, it isn’t illogical to have a thread addressing the political aspects & potential ramifications over here.
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#4 George Rowell

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Posted 09 February 2020 - 11:02 PM

View PostTraveler, on 09 February 2020 - 08:28 PM, said:

I sure hope this thread dies out. I don't think it will. Been following this as close as I can via NYT and SCMP. What we see is not what we are getting. For one nice little window into the debacle in Wuhan, see the Mail. I am just going to post a bunch of URLs instead of trying to name them. Just scroll through. Look at that super spreader article. Then look at 5 million fleeing Wuhan before the lockdown. This was nasty enough to kill the doctor who warned everyone. Who was chastised. some more juicy stuff. Like watching folks ripped from their apartments.

This is absolutely fucking serious. Read what the epidemiologists are saying. So far, the CCP has done what it could, once it woke up. The question is, was it in time? Seems like we are doing well, but this disease has very high transmission coefficient, which combined with lethality, makes is major concern for me. I hope I am a pollyanna. A few links:


Another insight: https://www.inkstonenews.com/health/police-letter-tried-keep-chinese-doctor-li-wenliang-warning-
An index: coronavirus/article/3049555https://www.dailymai...irus/index.html
A nice summary: https://www.dailymai...oronavirus.html

The Mail is far more on top of this than anyone. This will bear some close attention for hopefully only another couple of months.
Some experts are saying it is here to stay and could become 'seasonal'. One said avoid it until 85% have already had it before you start mixing. The thing is we simply do not know what the real death toll is because many Chinese victims die at home and it is recorded as seasonal flu. Some institutions are saying a vaccine will take 6 months and others 10-20 years. Whatever it is deadly serious.Scary,
A doctor knows a little about a lot. A specialist knows a lot about a little. In time the doctor knows less and less about more and more and the specialist knows more and more about less and less until ultimately the doctor knows nothing about everything and the specialist knows everything about nothing.

#5 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 10 February 2020 - 06:59 AM

It was not contained when containment was possible.
Case mortality is presently unknown.
Yes, Virginia, there is human-human transmission. Big surprise.
The best we can hope for now is to keep the spread slow enough that medical caregivers won't be overwhelmed.
As for seasonal -- coronaviruses are not lightning mutators like influenza. Until we get a vaccine, more like measles (if you're an optimist.) Or smallpox if not.
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#6 Traveler

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Posted 10 February 2020 - 07:28 AM

View PostBact PhD, on 09 February 2020 - 09:08 PM, said:

Not your imagination. Much of the subject has been discussed on the “The most predictable disaster...” thread in Non-Political. However, given the intersection of pestilence with Chinese politics, it isn’t illogical to have a thread addressing the political aspects & potential ramifications over here.
Sorry folks, I only read this thread forum since Trump was elected. Kind of blinkered I know, but so it goes. At any rate, I do concur with Bact that this is going to have much wider implications. Very soon IMO. I will check the thread for interesting tidbits, thanks. The reason for this posting was the sheer amount of actual information from reporters on the ground vs. from talking heads with a variety of agendas.

ETA: Good thread that. But the recent reporting is getting ever more frightening. Looks like a serious pandemic brewing. Going to bring a lot of economies to a screeching halt. Don't see how the US isn't affected. We can only hope we have the cases and contacts here contained. China is just going to have to put up with it. Don't know how. I feel for the folks in Wuhan. I have had projects and experiments there since 2011. (To no avail FWIW). What really shook me was Li's death. At 34, he was no feeble character. A lot of pretty loud posts of derision and outright blame of the CCP going on, and the Great Wall is not keeping up with it. The Chinese are in for quite a ride politically as well. Another reason why I started this here.
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#7 George Rowell

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Posted 10 February 2020 - 07:37 AM

https://www.oftwomin...l-virus2-20.png

I hope this isn't prophetic
A doctor knows a little about a lot. A specialist knows a lot about a little. In time the doctor knows less and less about more and more and the specialist knows more and more about less and less until ultimately the doctor knows nothing about everything and the specialist knows everything about nothing.

#8 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 10 February 2020 - 09:53 AM

View PostGeorge Rowell, on 10 February 2020 - 07:37 AM, said:

https://www.oftwomin...l-virus2-20.png

I hope this isn't prophetic

Disease spread is always exponential to begin with. Sometimes the exponent is negative, but that's not likely in this case.

Eventually the disease runs into a growth limiter. Then it stops being exponential. Examples are: extinction of the host population, exhaustion of the supply of non-immune hosts, reduction of transmission rate (e.g. distance).

Y'all can do the math: if every infected individual infects on average two others, with an incubation period of two weeks, how long before China runs out of susceptible hosts? The whole world?
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
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#9 George Rowell

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Posted 10 February 2020 - 09:58 AM

That is definitely not comforting.
A doctor knows a little about a lot. A specialist knows a lot about a little. In time the doctor knows less and less about more and more and the specialist knows more and more about less and less until ultimately the doctor knows nothing about everything and the specialist knows everything about nothing.

#10 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 10 February 2020 - 10:23 AM

View PostGeorge Rowell, on 10 February 2020 - 09:58 AM, said:

That is definitely not comforting.

Deal. My back-of-the-envelope guess (worth less than it cost you) is on the rough order of a year before the disease peaks in China. A bit longer for the rest of the world but it's out of confinement and will spread barring a blindingly-fast development and deployment of a vaccine or maybe a cheap early detection measure. My totally inexpert guess on that latter is that your odds of winning the lottery are considerably better.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#11 Bact PhD

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Posted 10 February 2020 - 10:25 AM

The grave (no pun intended) unknown in that chart is whether and to what degree asymptomatic carriers [1] exist.


[1] I’m referring to those beyond the apparent 2-week incubation period between exposure and the development of symptoms.
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(About fame) Living for likes, shares and follows is a form of validation. The question is whether it is also the source of our self esteem. If it is, we’re screwed. And, culturally, it seems as if it’s become more and more our shared value. ... Meringue is no longer a sweet and pretty topping but the body itself. ~Charles Perez

The trouble is that editors and their journalists are simply employees of large profit-seeking corporations whose executives have no idea of what "truth" is; only "ratings" or "clicks" or share price. ~Rich T Bikkies, 10/1/2020

"If a nation expects to be ignorant and free in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be." --Thomas Jefferson to Charles Yancey, 1816. ME 14:384, via LFC, 12/1/2016

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#12 LFC

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Posted 10 February 2020 - 10:38 AM

View PostD. C. Sessions, on 10 February 2020 - 10:23 AM, said:

A bit longer for the rest of the world but it's out of confinement and will spread barring a blindingly-fast development and deployment of a vaccine...

That's crazy talk. If you're smart enough to not buy big pharma' propaganda you'll understand that vaccines are more dangerous than the diseases they're purported to prevent. Just ask world renowned scientist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
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#13 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 10 February 2020 - 11:10 AM

Is there such a thing as black snark?
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#14 Rue Bella

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Posted 10 February 2020 - 11:30 AM

The cruise ship docked/quarantined in Yokohama (with approx 3700 individuals aboard) as of this morning has 135 positive tests compared with 70 last night. Keep in mind these are mostly older people going on such cruises, and older people seem more susceptible to this.

The numbers of cases coming our of china is thought to be wildly inaccurate. There are unsubstantiated rumors of crematoria now running 24/7 to deal with bodies.

China is behind the 8 ball. The people were caught unaware, they do not have enough facilities to care for the sick, they do not have enough tests to even know what they are dealing with. And they have a population with many smokers and air pollution coupled with questionable hygiene (hand washing with soap, public spitting, for example)...

What to watch for IMO is what happens when it becomes more common outside of China. Then we will better know how infectious it is, what percent of serious cases there are, plus the number of deaths. So we wait for 2 weeks to a month to find out better numbers.

Of concern is what's going to happen in places with great populations of poor people with poor medical facilities. Africa, Indonesia, India... There are apparently no cases reported in Indonesia - the 4th largest population with ties to China. Probably not true.

There are reports from Hong Kong and somewhere else where people have gone to stores and cleared the shelves of basics. If you are worried about this (and there is cause for being aware) make sure you have your earthquake/hurricane/blizzard/GOP supplies current.

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#15 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 10 February 2020 - 02:56 PM

View PostRue Bella, on 10 February 2020 - 11:30 AM, said:

And they have a population with many smokers and air pollution coupled with questionable hygiene (hand washing with soap, public spitting, for example)...

According to the friendly neighborhood epidemiologist, coughs, sneezes, and runny noses frequently end up directly on hands. OTOH, bowing is a better greeting than handshakes.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#16 andydp

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Posted 10 February 2020 - 03:00 PM

If things go wrong here, we're looking at the world's largest incubator. Sadly its the poor citizens who are going to take the biggest hit.

South Korea is definitely worried because of the possible land avenues.

North Korea’s Secret Coronavirus Crisis is Crazy Scary

Kim Jong Un canceled a big parade with no real explanation just as the South Korean press reports coronavirus has hit North Korea hard and could explode there.


https://www.thedaily...pd6g6MkKIG0TEPs
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"I can't go out because of the virus" sounds whiny and boring. I'm going with: "I've sworn an oath of solitude until the pestilence is purged from the lands." because it sounds more valiant and heroic. As a bonus, people might think you're carrying a sword.

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#17 LFC

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Posted 10 February 2020 - 05:05 PM

The original animal source of coronavirus could be ... pangolins? UGH! These amazing creatures are persecuted enough. I guess I can hope that maybe this will scare the hell out of those profiting off them enough to give them a break.

Quote

Pangolins – one of the world’s most trafficked animals – may have played a key role in the current coronavirus outbreak, Chinese researchers have announced. Independent experts from the UK have said this idea seems fairly plausible, but the research should be taken cautiously until the full results are published.

Scientists from South China Agricultural University have found the novel coronavirus strain that infects pangolins is around 99 percent identical to the strain found in infected people, according to Chinese state news agency Xinhua. This suggests that pangolins may be an intermediate host of the virus, acting as a go-between that allowed the virus to jump from bats to humans.

Pangolins are an order of scale-covered mammals that can be found in Africa and Asia, some species of which are critically endangered. Although protected by international law, they are the most trafficked mammal in Asia, perhaps even the world. This illegal trade is mainly driven by high demand in southern China and Vietnam, where their scales are believed to hold medicinal properties and their meat is eaten as a delicacy.

Scientists are fairly certain the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) originated in bats before being passed to humans, perhaps via another species. Considering the pangolin is globally traded through poorly regulated live-animal markets, it means they could act as very effective intermediate hosts. If this new analysis is correct, then it makes them even more of a likely suspect.

“This latest discovery will be of great significance for the prevention and control of the origin of the new coronavirus,” South China Agricultural University said on their website.

As mentioned, the results of the study have not been peer-reviewed and published yet. Although independent researchers have said the news is “interesting” and “intriguing”, they have warned to take the findings with a pinch of salt until the full data is released. It’s worth remembering that a separate genetic analysis argued that the virus might have jumped from snakes to humans and yet that theory was later discredited.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

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#18 LFC

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Posted 10 February 2020 - 05:06 PM

The ability to pass coronavirus on through feces is being examined.

Quote

A new report into the range of symptoms experienced by coronavirus patients suggests that around one in 10 suffer from diarrhea and nausea for a few days before developing breathing difficulties, leading to suggestions that the pathogen may be transmitted via feces. While this route of transmission has not been confirmed, the new data does raise the possibility that doctors may have missed some key early warning signs by focusing only on cases involving respiratory symptoms.

It has already been established that the virus is primarily passed on by droplets in an infected person’s cough, and the new study – which features in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) – found that the majority of coronavirus patients at a hospital in Wuhan, China, suffered from symptoms such as fever, muscle pain, and shortness of breath at the onset of the illness.

However, of the 138 patients observed by the study authors, 14 initially presented with diarrhea or nausea, developing more classic coronavirus symptoms a day or two later. According to Chinese media reports, doctors found traces of viral nucleic acids in the stool of patients who exhibited these atypical digestive symptoms.

The first US patient to be diagnosed with coronavirus is also said to have experienced diarrhea for a few days, and the virus was also found to be present in his feces.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#19 Rich T Bikkies

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Posted 10 February 2020 - 05:31 PM

View PostLFC, on 10 February 2020 - 05:06 PM, said:


This means India could start to present problems. Shitting in the open is a long-standing health issue there; enlightened Indians were already campaigning on this long before the coronavirus.

It doesn't seem to me that it's guaranteed we're going to get a grip on this.
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#20 Traveler

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Posted 10 February 2020 - 06:33 PM

An informative take from somebody who should know. I assume he is the leader of the HK group claiming an order of magnitude more cases. This is very measured though. A little background on pandemics, like the origin of the common flu.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire





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