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Tuesday night results


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#41 indy

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Posted 08 February 2012 - 08:03 AM

Hilarious. The Republican party is a train wreck. Time for Mitt's PAC to start tearing into the Sweatertorum...

Mitt will win Michigan but if Santorum can win Arizona it might be the most fun super Tuesday in memory.

Edit: Intrade, btw, had Romney the 97% favorite to win Colorado going into the voting. Whatever people think they know about this primary, they don't.

#42 rubbernecker

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Posted 08 February 2012 - 08:06 AM

Wow, this is great! I dislike Santorum, but at least he's a man who sticks to his guns, and it's so satisfying to see the imperious Romney get shellacked.

There's hope that no matter who the GOP finally nominates, the rank-and-file is too fractious to rally.

#43 cmk

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Posted 08 February 2012 - 08:11 AM

View Postindy, on 08 February 2012 - 08:03 AM, said:

Mitt will win Michigan...

I wouldn't put money on that. He should win, but he also should have won Colorado. Three weeks is a long time in this race, and he has ties there.. but he also has some fairly awful baggage when it comes to Michigan.
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#44 indy

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Posted 08 February 2012 - 08:16 AM

View Postcmk, on 08 February 2012 - 08:11 AM, said:

I wouldn't put money on that. He should win, but he also should have won Colorado. Three weeks is a long time in this race, and he has ties there.. but he also has some fairly awful baggage when it comes to Michigan.

I agree, three weeks is a long time. But Santorum was boasting that he raised 200K last week. Quaint. Mitt's PAC will spend those 3 weeks pounding him just like they did to Newt in Florida.

The activists have rejected Romney wholesale, which is what these caucuses really measure. I'll be interested to see if Maine follows the lead.

#45 indy

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Posted 08 February 2012 - 08:21 AM

Just checked and the only polls I can find for Maine show Santorum with zero support there.

#46 cmk

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Posted 08 February 2012 - 08:21 AM

I think Santorum is about to raise a LOT more money.

I agree that caucuses don't translate well into real primaries, and that Romney is going to spend a lot of money tearing Santorum down. It's pretty much the only game he knows.
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"The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly, is to fill the world with fools." -- Herbert Spencer

"Atheism is a religion like abstinence is a sex position." -- Bill Maher


"Our new Government['s] foundations are laid, its cornerstone rests, upon the great truth that the negro is not equal to the white man; that slavery, subordination to the superior race, is his natural and moral condition." -- Alexander Stephens, Vice-President of the Confederacy

#47 rubbernecker

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Posted 08 February 2012 - 08:43 AM

View Postindy, on 08 February 2012 - 08:16 AM, said:

I agree, three weeks is a long time. But Santorum was boasting that he raised 200K last week. Quaint. Mitt's PAC will spend those 3 weeks pounding him just like they did to Newt in Florida.

The activists have rejected Romney wholesale, which is what these caucuses really measure. I'll be interrested to see if Maine follows the lead.

Maybe MittPACs shouldn't pound too hard, since the Santorum veep option could spark the base a bit.

#48 balconesfault

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Posted 08 February 2012 - 08:49 AM

I think what we saw is that Midwestern Religious Righters don't view Catholics as cultists, the way Southern Religious Righters do.

But both agree that Mormons are.

#49 Raskolnik

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Posted 08 February 2012 - 09:02 AM

If Santorum has any sense he will spend every cent he can running Romney's "I think we should let Detroit go bankrupt" clip over and over again. With his momentum from last night and three weeks to sink in I give him at least 50/50 to win in Michigan, and then Willard is REALLY in trouble...

#50 indy

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Posted 08 February 2012 - 09:13 AM

What is interesting is that Newt has strong support in Maine, where Romney is only up over him by +6 or so. If that support switches to Santorum, or if Newt drops out...

#51 balconesfault

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Posted 08 February 2012 - 09:33 AM

I don't think there are any GOP voters really running around saying "yeah, Newt is the ideal guy to be President!".

Newt is their vehicle for screaming at liberals.

They know that voting for Romney isn't like screaming at liberals, even if he tries to pretend. He's too compromised, both by his past, and by the pundit class continuing to insist that Romney would be able to work with Democrats.

At least half of the GOP views working with Democrats to be akin to working with Satan, and they want none of it.

If it looks to them like Santorum is another acceptable vehicle for screaming at liberals - they'll jump allegiance from Gingrich faster than it takes for a Montgomery police chief to turn on a firehose.

#52 Ari

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Posted 08 February 2012 - 09:49 AM

View Postcmk, on 07 February 2012 - 11:39 PM, said:

Oddly, I find myself less scared of the idea of him in the WH than I am either of the others.

I don't understand this at all. Santorum's track record is basically the same as W's, just minus the folksy charm. Crazy social issues, shoot first foreign policy, no conscience about big spending and tax cutting, lots of signs of corruption and hypocrisy, etc. It is basically a collection of the worst features in the GOP over the past few years. Obviously Romney isn't popular around these parts, but he isn't going to make it a day 1 priority to pick off the scabs from all the old social issues and drop bombs on Iran. The only "advantage" Santorum has over Romney is that he appears to sincerely believe all this stuff, and that is actually a pretty scary thing if you think about it.

#53 Traveler

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Posted 08 February 2012 - 09:58 AM

View PostAri, on 08 February 2012 - 09:49 AM, said:

I don't understand this at all. Santorum's track record is basically the same as W's, just minus the folksy charm. Crazy social issues, shoot first foreign policy, no conscience about big spending and tax cutting, lots of signs of corruption and hypocrisy, etc. It is basically a collection of the worst features in the GOP over the past few years. Obviously Romney isn't popular around these parts, but he isn't going to make it a day 1 priority to pick off the scabs from all the old social issues and drop bombs on Iran. The only "advantage" Santorum has over Romney is that he appears to sincerely believe all this stuff, and that is actually a pretty scary thing if you think about it.
As a Pennsylvanian who has had to live with his idiocy up close, I have no illusions about this smarmy character. You are dead on the money there, he actually does buy his own Kool-Aid. But BO would have a field day with him, so bring him on. This is getting more fun all the time.
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#54 Ari

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Posted 08 February 2012 - 10:21 AM

View PostTraveler, on 08 February 2012 - 09:58 AM, said:

As a Pennsylvanian who has had to live with his idiocy up close, I have no illusions about this smarmy character. You are dead on the money there, he actually does buy his own Kool-Aid. But BO would have a field day with him, so bring him on. This is getting more fun all the time.

It is looking like BO will have a field day with either one of them.

#55 davisss13

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Posted 08 February 2012 - 10:30 AM

This slow-motion train wreck would be entertaining if it only affected the participants.

#56 cmk

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Posted 08 February 2012 - 10:37 AM

View PostAri, on 08 February 2012 - 09:49 AM, said:

I don't understand this at all. Santorum's track record is basically the same as W's, just minus the folksy charm. Crazy social issues, shoot first foreign policy, no conscience about big spending and tax cutting, lots of signs of corruption and hypocrisy, etc. It is basically a collection of the worst features in the GOP over the past few years. Obviously Romney isn't popular around these parts, but he isn't going to make it a day 1 priority to pick off the scabs from all the old social issues and drop bombs on Iran. The only "advantage" Santorum has over Romney is that he appears to sincerely believe all this stuff, and that is actually a pretty scary thing if you think about it.

It's not a policy thing. It's a personal thing. I have a strong aversion to grossly dishonest, fraudulent politicians. I dislike and distrust Romney for many of the same reasons I disliked and distrusted Bill Clinton.

Call it the difference between a favorability and a likeability index.

I'm not a big fan of Santorum, don't get me wrong. But I am having a hard time buying the argument that I should just trust that the Romney I see campaigning right now isn't the one who'd end up in the White House. I think someone who will pretend to be something he isn't in campaigning just to get elected will pretend to be something he isn't in governing just to get re-elected. And I also think anyone as phony and uncentered as Romney is entirely capable of being manipulated by various power brokers into doing pretty much anything.
Charles M. Kozierok - Administrator, TalkRadioSucks.com

"The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly, is to fill the world with fools." -- Herbert Spencer

"Atheism is a religion like abstinence is a sex position." -- Bill Maher


"Our new Government['s] foundations are laid, its cornerstone rests, upon the great truth that the negro is not equal to the white man; that slavery, subordination to the superior race, is his natural and moral condition." -- Alexander Stephens, Vice-President of the Confederacy

#57 jdd_stl1

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Posted 08 February 2012 - 10:50 AM

So, what, if anything did we learn from Tuesday's results?
Here is what I think and wonder about,
before I read all the pundit reactions and campaign organization spin.
1. Mitt Romney doesn't fair well in uncontested beauty contests. By uncontested
I mean ones in which he or his PAC isn't out there spending lots of money. Seems like
this reflects the point that people just really don't LIKE him. They may not hate him
but they are not naturally attracted to him.
2. What would this race be like if Gingrich dropped out? How much of his support
and $$$ would go to Santorum? Would we be more likely headed toward a brokered
convention with Romney, Paul and Santorum?
3. Does Santorum have any staying power? He needs money and organization to really
make a run at Romeny.
4. We are left with one of the great quotes of this campaign, brought up by Practical Girl
in the Talk Radio forum here:

View PostPractical Girl, on 07 February 2012 - 09:28 PM, said:

Looking at a map and projecting a possible Minnesota and Missouri victory for the former PA Senator and combining it with Iowa (all in a solid color of purple), John King was looking at the pattern: A nice little section of Rick voters. And then...If MN and MO come in for Rick...

"We'd have purple Santorum running down the middle of the country."

Yes. He said it, and the visual was more than I could bear.

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#58 Ari

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Posted 08 February 2012 - 10:57 AM

View Postcmk, on 08 February 2012 - 10:37 AM, said:

It's not a policy thing. It's a personal thing. I have a strong aversion to grossly dishonest, fraudulent politicians. I dislike and distrust Romney for many of the same reasons I disliked and distrusted Bill Clinton.

Call it the difference between a favorability and a likeability index.

I'm not a big fan of Santorum, don't get me wrong. But I am having a hard time buying the argument that I should just trust that the Romney I see campaigning right now isn't the one who'd end up in the White House. I think someone who will pretend to be something he isn't in campaigning just to get elected will pretend to be something he isn't in governing just to get re-elected. And I also think anyone as phony and uncentered as Romney is entirely capable of being manipulated by various power brokers into doing pretty much anything.

I also didn't like Clinton as a person, but he was a very successful president. So was Nixon, despite Water Gate. My preference is more towards people who I think will do a good job, not people who I would choose to babysit my kids or entertain my wife. It certainly is possible that Romney would be driven towards the silly policies that he doesn't really believe in, but Santorum wouldn't even need the extra encouragement. He would lead the way. It isn't just the sincerity/policy thing. Romney has been successful in other executive positions. Santorum's resume consists of a few years as an associate at a big law firm (trust me, that doesn't qualify you to be president) and a bunch of years in congress. He might surprise us and do a good job, but he has no track record running anything that might indicate he can do a good job.

#59 Rabiner

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Posted 08 February 2012 - 11:18 AM

I think you're all avoiding what I feel was the story of the night. Turnout was just pitiful.
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#60 cmk

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Posted 08 February 2012 - 11:25 AM

Ari, you make some valid rational arguments for why I should feel more comfortable with Romney than Santorum. Maybe if I think about it some more, I'll agree. :) I'll concede readily that much of my revulsion for Romney is emotional in nature.

For the record, I was once a big fan of Romney's. I lived in Massashusetts in the early 90s and remember cheering him on when he tried for Kennedy's seat. But just as happened with McCain, I don't even recognize the creature he's become since he started trying to win this primary.
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"The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly, is to fill the world with fools." -- Herbert Spencer

"Atheism is a religion like abstinence is a sex position." -- Bill Maher


"Our new Government['s] foundations are laid, its cornerstone rests, upon the great truth that the negro is not equal to the white man; that slavery, subordination to the superior race, is his natural and moral condition." -- Alexander Stephens, Vice-President of the Confederacy





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