Jump to content


IRAN


135 replies to this topic

#61 LFC

    Fiscal Conservative

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 29978 posts
  • LocationPennsylvania

Posted 24 June 2019 - 12:52 PM

View Postindy, on 21 June 2019 - 01:12 PM, said:

It absolutely was. A casualty assessment is part of EVERY briefing for a military action. I doubt, however, Trump could be pried away from the golf course or perhaps they forgot to put in a cartoon with 150 dead people with Xs for eyes. ETA: or, of course, he is just lying about it.

Do we know Trump actually spent any time with the generals rather than having them give all the details to Pompeo and Bolton who then gave Trump their 2 minute multi-colored presentations with pictures depicting him as a hero? Knowing what we do about Trump's inability to listen, understand, or retain I wouldn't be at all surprised if he ended up getting some filtered and fluffy nonsense rather than a real briefing.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#62 golden_valley

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 5942 posts
  • LocationNorthern California

Posted 24 June 2019 - 02:06 PM

View PostLFC, on 24 June 2019 - 12:52 PM, said:

Do we know Trump actually spent any time with the generals rather than having them give all the details to Pompeo and Bolton who then gave Trump their 2 minute multi-colored presentations with pictures depicting him as a hero? Knowing what we do about Trump's inability to listen, understand, or retain I wouldn't be at all surprised if he ended up getting some filtered and fluffy nonsense rather than a real briefing.

A little part of me thinks he made the whole thing up and didn't actually order any strike.

#63 LFC

    Fiscal Conservative

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 29978 posts
  • LocationPennsylvania

Posted 24 June 2019 - 02:20 PM

View Postgolden_valley, on 24 June 2019 - 02:06 PM, said:

A little part of me thinks he made the whole thing up and didn't actually order any strike.

That is the sad state of affairs we're in?

Person A: "You don't believe him because you think he's scheming on this issue to his own hidden ends?"

Person B: "No, I don't believe him because he constantly makes shit up and blurts it out."
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#64 LFC

    Fiscal Conservative

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 29978 posts
  • LocationPennsylvania

Posted 24 June 2019 - 03:46 PM

A former U.S. diplomat tweets out the situation with Trump's Iran "policy". Here are the tweets all strung together.

Quote

Sun Tzu: “Know your enemy, know your yourself.” Here, the enemy (Iran) believes it’s acting defensively in light of economic strangulation, which it views as an act of war. That doesn’t justify its acts but makes deterrence via one-off strikes harder & perhaps counter-productive.

If the enemy believes it’s already under attack and is lashing out (in its view) defensively, then limited strikes absent serious diplomatic initiatives are unlikely to change its mindset. Thus, there is a higher than normal risk of tit-for-tat escalation.

In terms of knowing yourself, there is lack of clarity in U.S. objectives on Iran. What are we trying to achieve via maximum pressure? The president states limited objectives (nuclear deal only) his advisors state maximalist objectives (12 points). US allies are equally confused.

If we can clarify objectives, how would strikes fit into the strategy? Are they more or less likely to bring Iran to the table? Are we prepared to further escalate if initial strikes lead to more provocations from Iran? (Prepared for escalation dominance? Ask now, not later.)

Trump’s ordered pause should be used to ask these and other hard questions about the strategy, its aims, and the mounting risks should the policy remain unchanged. Last night is the first time Trump took Iran policy off auto pilot and that’s good.

There are prudent response measures with clear objectives available — for example, an international coalition to protect shipping lanes — but that will take time, patience, and diplomacy. Time and patience should work to our benefit here (if used wisely).

— Brett McGurk (@brett_mcgurk) June 21, 2019

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#65 JackD

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 1789 posts
  • LocationChicago area

Posted 24 June 2019 - 04:36 PM

And in pursuit of his unclear objectives, Trump has announced additional sanctions.

#66 Probabilistic

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 2224 posts

Posted 24 June 2019 - 08:06 PM

View PostJackD, on 24 June 2019 - 04:36 PM, said:

And in pursuit of his unclear objectives, Trump has announced additional sanctions.

The objective is to receive a PCH sized envelop carrying a love letter from the Ayatollah. Then the autocrats would become bosom buddies.

#67 LFC

    Fiscal Conservative

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 29978 posts
  • LocationPennsylvania

Posted 19 July 2019 - 02:20 PM

Trump and the twin horses asses of the apocalypse, Bolton and Pompeo, are destabilizing the region, something that I'm sure doesn't bother them even a little. Maximum pressure with no endgame in sight, and there's certainly none possible with liars and extremists like Trump and his crew, isn't likely to create a good outcome ... unless the outcome you really desire is a full scale regional war. Bolton must be touching himself on the regular with the way things are going.

Quote

When Trump talked of war, he meant a shooting war in the conventional sense. But for Iran and its allies, it’s Trump’s economic war with its suffocating sanctions that is bringing the region to the brink of armed conflict. The targets of Trump’s weaponized dollar increasingly see resorting to military engagements as the only response left.

Here in Lebanon, Hezbollah’s commanders are close allies and clients of Iran—and they are targeted by U.S. sanctions as well. They warn that if the pressure continues these rugged hills where the Party of God fought bloody guerrilla campaigns to end 15 years of Israeli occupation in 2000 and repel an Israeli invasion in 2006 could erupt once again.

And this time, they say, the combat will be far more devastating.

Hezbollah’s forces, battle-hardened in the Syrian civil war, have begun redeploying toward the Israeli border, not only in Lebanon, but in Syria opposite the Israeli-occupied side of the Golan Heights.

Hezbollah fighters who spoke to The Daily Beast say their organization is hurting from sanctions and ready to initiate hostilities—if and when Tehran deems that necessary.

“The sanctions now have us preparing for dealing with the Israeli front,” says “Commander Samir,” a Hezbollah officer in charge of 800 fighters on Lebanon’s border with Israel. He declines to use his real name because he is not authorized to speak to the media. “We will fire the first shot this time,” he says.


"When you've got nothin' you've got nothin' to lose."
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#68 Traveler

    Rambling Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 13291 posts
  • LocationPhilly Area

Posted 20 July 2019 - 09:19 AM

More like "When you don't deserve nothin' you got nothin' to lose". I hope the Israelis bomb them back to the stone age. Seems like the sanctions are working so well they want to die instead.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#69 J-CA

    Probably in one of my drunken stupors..

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 4768 posts

Posted 21 July 2019 - 09:39 PM

View PostTraveler, on 20 July 2019 - 09:19 AM, said:

More like "When you don't deserve nothin' you got nothin' to lose". I hope the Israelis bomb them back to the stone age. Seems like the sanctions are working so well they want to die instead.
Ahhh.. I, alternatively, hope that Israel doesn't kill thousands of innocent Iranians for what amounts to no reason.

On what basis are you making this assessment, that they, collectively, deserve to be bombed and for thousands, maybe tens of thousands of people to die? Please explain.
I am the burrito until someone hands me to a philosopher.

#70 Traveler

    Rambling Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 13291 posts
  • LocationPhilly Area

Posted 22 July 2019 - 06:50 AM

For what they did to Lebanon over the last three decades, like Hariri's bombing. What are Iranians doing in Lebanon anyway? They are neither Druze nor Christian. What is their historical rationale for being in the Golan Heights and Lebanon? Wiki says Lebanon is 27% Shia. Is that it? To me they are nothing but Iranian proxies that have destroyed the country so Iran could better hassle Israel. (Which BTW deserves harassment, but that is another issue. )

For sure I see this too simplistically, but perhaps you could explain to me why the Iranians in Lebanon have a good reason to do what they have done?

And I was only talking about the Iranian Hezbollah that want to start a war with Israel, not citizens caught in the crossfire. So if they die in a war that they initiate, I have no sympathy.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#71 AnBr

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 13461 posts

Posted 22 July 2019 - 09:34 AM

View PostTraveler, on 22 July 2019 - 06:50 AM, said:

What is their historical rationale for being in the Golan Heights and Lebanon?

Well, it was once part of the Persian Empire.
“One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.”

— Carl Sagan


Pray for Trump: Psalm 109:8

"Science is more than a body of knowledge; it is a way of thinking. I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time - when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the key manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers arc in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness.

— Carl Sagan
The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark
1995


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

— H.L. Mencken
On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe


“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt
Second inaugural address January, 1937

#72 baw1064

    formerly of the public sector

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 4991 posts
  • LocationEarthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanos--oh my!

Posted 22 July 2019 - 07:37 PM

View PostAnBr, on 22 July 2019 - 09:34 AM, said:

Well, it was once part of the Persian Empire.

As were most of present-day Turkey and Pakistan. This could get fun.
“Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, Nothing is going to get better. It's not.” --Dr. Seuss

#73 J-CA

    Probably in one of my drunken stupors..

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 4768 posts

Posted 22 July 2019 - 11:03 PM

View PostTraveler, on 22 July 2019 - 06:50 AM, said:

For what they did to Lebanon over the last three decades, like Hariri's bombing. What are Iranians doing in Lebanon anyway? They are neither Druze nor Christian. What is their historical rationale for being in the Golan Heights and Lebanon? Wiki says Lebanon is 27% Shia. Is that it? To me they are nothing but Iranian proxies that have destroyed the country so Iran could better hassle Israel. (Which BTW deserves harassment, but that is another issue. )

For sure I see this too simplistically, but perhaps you could explain to me why the Iranians in Lebanon have a good reason to do what they have done?

And I was only talking about the Iranian Hezbollah that want to start a war with Israel, not citizens caught in the crossfire. So if they die in a war that they initiate, I have no sympathy.
It sounded to me like you were asking Israel to bomb Iran itself into the stone age.

The Iranians are "in" Lebanon because of the original invitation of the Syrians, who themselves were occupying Lebanon because its civil war was threatening to end with a slaughter of Christians and Shia in Lebanon (which explains why Hezbollah enjoys a lot of support in some Christian areas, a phenomenon that I once found extremely puzzling) which I assume the Syrians calculated that beyond being a humanitarian disaster would have also been a destabilizing refugee crisis for Syria.
Of course the real reason for their existence is to resist the Israeli occupation of Lebanon. That worked in the end and many people in south Lebanon that had their land occupied were very happy to get it back when Israel withdrew in 2000, and many of them support Hezbollah to this day for that reason.
For this reason there is an enduring alliance between Syria, Iran, and much of the Lebanese people - Hezbollah's political wing controls almost half of the Lebanese parliament. Hezbollah runs schools, hospitals, and more in Lebanon so sanctions on Iran have tangible impacts on Lebanese people - creating desperation for Iranians also creates desperation for much of Lebanon.

Israel also has no right to kill thousands of Lebanese civilians bombing Hezbollah into the stone age. All of this in the near term traces back to the US withdraw from the JCPA with Israel cheering them on. I am not sure why anyone should have all that much sympathy for Israel as a political entity (there are plenty of individual Israelis that are worthy of sympathy).
I am the burrito until someone hands me to a philosopher.

#74 J-CA

    Probably in one of my drunken stupors..

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 4768 posts

Posted 22 July 2019 - 11:25 PM

View PostTraveler, on 22 July 2019 - 06:50 AM, said:

To me they are nothing but Iranian proxies that have destroyed the country so Iran could better hassle Israel.
Just to be clear my view is that this may be almost backwards, Hezbollah's existence and popularity is originally rooted in Israel's meddling in Lebanese affairs. Israel's plan was to install a friendly regime in Lebanon, at one point they literally had a parallel government set up backed by the militias that they were supporting.
No clean hands in this situation.
I am the burrito until someone hands me to a philosopher.

#75 LFC

    Fiscal Conservative

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 29978 posts
  • LocationPennsylvania

Posted 23 July 2019 - 09:13 AM

And oldie but goody in "honor" of the current situation in the Middle East.

Posted Image
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#76 Traveler

    Rambling Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 13291 posts
  • LocationPhilly Area

Posted 23 July 2019 - 10:30 AM

Quote

Just to be clear my view is that this may be almost backwards, Hezbollah's existence and popularity is originally rooted in Israel's meddling in Lebanese affairs. Israel's plan was to install a friendly regime in Lebanon, at one point they literally had a parallel government set up backed by the militias that they were supporting.
No clean hands in this situation.
Thanks for lack of snark. I had the good fortune to see a very little of Lebanon back in 1971 when it was intact. Impressive city. The airport was festooned with PLO posters. Who moved in masses into Lebanon after the Yom Kipper war. Which started the civil war between them and the Maronites. Israel supported the Christians, while Syria supported the Arabs. Depends on who invited who I guess. Definitely no clean hands, especially after Sabra and Chatilla.

But none of that relates to Hezbollah militants on the Golan Heights using sanctions to justify attacks now. I thought my OP said that. Sorry for poor writing...
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#77 LFC

    Fiscal Conservative

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 29978 posts
  • LocationPennsylvania

Posted 23 July 2019 - 11:22 AM

The latest escalation with Iran where Britain grabbed one of their tankers and now Iran has returned the favor may have all been part of John Bolton's plan to get his long desired war. Britain's seizure of the Iranian tanker sounds like a clear violation of international law and the rationale seems to have come from America's right-wing fever swamps. This stinks to high heaven which I guess shouldn't be a shock since the Trump administration is basically hell.

Quote

While Iran’s seizure of a British tanker near the Strait of Hormuz on Friday was a clear response to the British capture of an Iranian tanker in the Strait of Gibraltar on July 4, both the UK and U.S. governments are insisting that Iran’s operation was illegal while the British acted legally.

The facts surrounding the British detention of the Iranian ship, however, suggest that, like the Iranian detention of the British ship, it was an illegal interference with freedom of navigation through an international strait. And even more importantly, evidence indicates that the British move was part of a bigger scheme coordinated by National Security Advisor John Bolton.

British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt called the Iran seizure of the British-flagged tanker Stena Impero “unacceptable” and insisted that it is “essential that freedom of navigation is maintained and that all ships can move safely and freely in the region.”

But the British denied Iran that same freedom of navigation through the Strait of Gibraltar on July 4.

The rationale for detaining the Iranian vessel and its crew was that it was delivering oil to Syria in violation of EU sanctions. This was never questioned by Western news media. But a closer look reveals that the UK had no legal right to enforce those sanctions against that ship, and that it was a blatant violation of the clearly defined global rules that govern the passage of merchant ships through international straits.

The evidence also reveals that Bolton was actively involved in targeting the Grace 1 from the time it began its journey in May as part of the broader Trump administration campaign of “maximum pressure” on Iran.

Contrary to the official rationale, the detention of the Iranian tanker was not consistent with the 2012 EU regulation on sanctions against the Assad government in Syria. The EU Council regulation in question specifies in Article 35 that the sanctions were to apply only within the territory of EU member states, to a national or business entity or onboard an aircraft or vessel “under the jurisdiction of a member state.”

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#78 Traveler

    Rambling Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 13291 posts
  • LocationPhilly Area

Posted 23 July 2019 - 11:52 AM

I don't think anyone takes Bolton seriously, not even trump.
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire

#79 golden_valley

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 5942 posts
  • LocationNorthern California

Posted 23 July 2019 - 12:10 PM

Trump doesn't like Iran though. He'll take Bolton's word on that but not on North Korea.

#80 LFC

    Fiscal Conservative

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 29978 posts
  • LocationPennsylvania

Posted 23 July 2019 - 03:58 PM

View PostTraveler, on 23 July 2019 - 11:52 AM, said:

I don't think anyone takes Bolton seriously, not even trump.

Pompeo too?

Quote

Pompeo blamed the Iranian seizure of the British tanker Stena Impero on the nature of the regime in a recent FoxNews interview:

So the responsibility in the first instance falls to the United Kingdom to take care of their ships. But Brian, you know this story. This isn’t because of American sanctions. This is because of the theocracy, the leadership in Iran, their revolutionary zeal to conduct terror around the world for now four decades continues [bold mine-DL]. This is a bad regime; it’s not honoring the people of Iran. They’ve now conducted what amounts to national piracy – right – a nation-state taking over a ship that’s traveling in international waters.

As usual, when Pompeo tells us what the “story” is, he misleads, makes things up, or leaves out crucial details. In this case, he leaves out the fact that Iran’s action came in response to the seizure of one of their tankers. When the U.K. seized an Iranian tanker near Gibraltar a few weeks ago ostensibly in the name of enforcing EU sanctions, Pompeo did not accuse them of engaging in piracy. The Iranian action to seize this ship is a direct result of the U.K. action to seize one of their ships. With any luck, the U.K. and Iran will now find a way to settle this peacefully and deescalate an already very tense situation. Both tankers and their crews should be released, but Pompeo’s propaganda rhetoric isn’t helping matters.

Pompeo’s remarks tell us something important about how he and other Iran hawks view Iranian behavior. When he says that the seizure of the tanker stems from “their revolutionary zeal to conduct terror around the world,” he is committing a common error of explaining Iranian government behavior in ideological terms based on the government’s internal makeup and qualities rather than recognizing the role of external factors in their decision-making. Pompeo doesn’t want to understand why Iran’s behavior has become more combative, not least since that would show the administration’s Iran policy to be a dangerous failure, and so instead he just uses that behavior to vilify them. Instead of thinking about how U.S. and U.K. actions have made Iranian retaliation more likely, Pompeo comforts himself with a simplistic ideological morality tale.


He lies as effortlessly as Bolton.

Quote

Pompeo made sure to get a lie about Iran into his interview with CBS yesterday:

We don’t seek conflict with them. We simply want them to stop terror attacks. We want them to stop building out their nuclear weapons program [bold mine-DL].

Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapons program. There is nothing for them to “build out” because there is no weapons program to begin with. More to the point, Iran hasn’t done any nuclear weapons-related work in 16 years, and the pre-JCPOA U.S. intelligence estimates have said as much. Bolton has been promoting the lie that Iran has a nuclear weapons program for months. Trump evidently buys into this lie as well because he is constantly talking about how Iran has to agree to never seek nuclear weapons (as they have already done on more than one occasion). Now Pompeo is using the same lie, and as usual no one calls him out for making things up.


Both Bolton and Pompeo are dangerous motherf***ers who want to go to war with Iran. And Trump picked both of them so he obviously takes them at least somewhat seriously.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer





1 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users