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Are you feeling lucky punk? Go to an investment broker.


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#1 George Rowell

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Posted 23 May 2019 - 08:43 PM

Over the last 15 years from 2002 to 2017, only one in 13 large-cap managers, only one in 19 mid-cap managers, and one in 23 small-cap managers were able to outperform their benchmark index.

Data from S&P
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#2 baw1064

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Posted 23 May 2019 - 09:46 PM

Well, if they worked for free, they'd have a 50/50 chance of outperformance. :P

Seriously, index funds are one of the great inventions of the last 50 years.
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#3 George Rowell

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Posted 23 May 2019 - 10:41 PM

View Postbaw1064, on 23 May 2019 - 09:46 PM, said:

Well, if they worked for free, they'd have a 50/50 chance of outperformance. :P

Seriously, index funds are one of the great inventions of the last 50 years.
Emperor Investments don't do too bad either. They use AI.
A doctor knows a little about a lot. A specialist knows a lot about a little. In time the doctor knows less and less about more and more and the specialist knows more and more about less and less until ultimately the doctor knows nothing about everything and the specialist knows everything about nothing.

#4 George Rowell

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 04:19 AM

A look at some of the gurus and how many times they got it right. Of course getting it wrong big time once is not reflected here. Look at Jim Cramer, wrong enough to have a TV program.

Guru-------------Forecasts------Accuracy
David Nassar------------44----68.2%
Trading Wire-------------69---- 47.8%
Ken Fisher---------------120-- 66.4%
Don Hays----------------- 85---- 47.1%
Jack Schannep---------- 63---- 65.6%
James Stewart----------- 115--- 47.0%
David Dreman----------- 45---- 64.4%
Richard Band------------ 31---- 46.9%
James Oberweis-------- 35---- 62.9%
Jim Cramer--------------- 62---- 46.8%
Steve Sjuggerud-------- 54---- 62.1%
Gary D. Halbert---------- 93---- 46.4%
Cabot Market Letter---- 50---- 60.4%
Dennis Slothower------- 145--- 45.6%
Louis Navellier----------- 152--- 60.0%
Bill Car---------------------208--- 45.6%
Jason Kelly--------------- 126---- 59.7%
Gary Savage------------- 134---- 45.0%
Dan Sullivan-------------- 115---- 59.1%
Marc Faber--------------- 164---- 44.6%
John Buckingham------- 17---- 58.8%
Jeremy Grantham------- 40---- 44.2%
Richard Moroney-------- 56---- 57.1%
Tim Wood----------------- 182--- 43.8%
Aden Sisters-------------- 40---- 55.8%
Jim Jubak----------------- 144--- 43.4%
Jon Markman------------- 36---- 55.3%
Martin Goldberg---------- 109--- 43.1%
Carl Swenlin--------------- 128--- 54.9%
Price Headley------------- 352--- 42.0%
Bob Doll-------------------- 161--- 54.7%
Linda Schurman----------- 57---- 41.4%
Paul Tracy------------------ 52---- 53.8%
Donald Rowe-------------- 69---- 40.6%
Bob Brinker---------------- 44---- 53.3%
Igor Greenwald----------- 37---- 40.5%
Mark Arbeter-------------- 230--- 53.2%
Nadeem Walayat--------- 67---- 40.5%
Gary Kaltbaum------------ 144--- 53.1%
Bob Hoye------------------- 57---- 40.0%
Robert Drach-------------- 19---- 52.6%
John Mauldin-------------- 211--- 39.9%
Don Luskin----------------- 201--- 52.0%
Jim Puplava---------------- 43---- 39.5%
Laszlo Birinyi--------------- 27---- 51.9%
Comstock Partners-------- 224--- 37.9%
Tobin Smith---------------- 281--- 50.2%
Bill Fleckenstein----------- 148--- 37.3%
James Dines -------------- 39 ---- 50.0%
Gary Shilling--------------- 41 ---- 36.6%
Ben Zacks------------------ 32 ---- 50.0%
Richard Russell------------ 168 --- 36.5%
Doug Kass------------------ 186 --- 49.2%
Mike Paulenoff------------- 12 ---- 35.7%
Richard Rhodes------------ 42 ---- 48.8%
Abby Joseph Cohen------- 56 ---- 35.1%
Bernie Schaeffer----------- 81 ---- 48.8%
Peter Eliades---------------- 29 ---- 34.5%
Clif Droke-------------------- 100 --- 48.6%
Steven Jon Kaplan--------- 104 --- 32.1%
Stephen Leeb--------------- 27 ---- 48.3%
Curt Hesler------------------ 97 --- 32.1%
S&P Outlook ---------------- 145 --- 48.3%
Robert McHugh------------- 132 --- 28.6%
Carl Futia-------------------- 98 ---- 48.2%
Steve Saville---------------- 35 ---- 23.7%
Charles Biderman---------- 48 ---- 47.9%
Robert Prechter------------- 24 ---- 20.8%

A doctor knows a little about a lot. A specialist knows a lot about a little. In time the doctor knows less and less about more and more and the specialist knows more and more about less and less until ultimately the doctor knows nothing about everything and the specialist knows everything about nothing.

#5 LFC

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 08:07 AM

View PostGeorge Rowell, on 13 June 2019 - 04:19 AM, said:

A look at some of the gurus and how many times they got it right. Of course getting it wrong big time once is not reflected here. Look at Jim Cramer, wrong enough to have a TV program.

Index funds just keep looking better and better.
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#6 andydp

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 12:00 PM

View PostLFC, on 13 June 2019 - 08:07 AM, said:

Index funds just keep looking better and better.

When working I kept my money going to the TSP (Gov't 401k) in the Dow Indexed Fund. I left it alone for 20 years. At the end of the Obama Administration my fund was triple what it was at the end of the Bush Administration.

Now that I have retired, 75% is in Government instruments and the other 25% is still in the index fund. The whole account isn't doing too bad either.

We had people who would constantly "churn" their accounts to get a higher return. In fact, that prompted the TSP administrators to limit changes once a month.

ETA: Didn't they have comparison portfolios between a monkey throwing darts and an actual Financial Advisor ? If I remember the story right, the monkey did better.
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#7 LFC

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 01:09 PM

View Postandydp, on 13 June 2019 - 12:00 PM, said:

ETA: Didn't they have comparison portfolios between a monkey throwing darts and an actual Financial Advisor ? If I remember the story right, the monkey did better.

More than once.
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

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#8 George Rowell

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Posted 16 June 2019 - 05:57 AM

Mathematicians Against Fraudulent Financial Advice (MAFFIA)

There is no reason to be optimistic. After all, nowadays a large fraction (over 80%) of all trades are executed not by individual investors or even most institutions, but instead by highly computerized operations (often operated by large mathematically-oriented hedge funds) that employ extremely sophisticated mathematical analysis, running on state-of-the-art computer systems, operating on huge datasets, to wring every morsel of potentially profitable information out of market data, and to act on their analyses in millisecond or even microsecond time frames. Recently some of these operations have extended their operations beyond market data to include econometric data, consumer transaction data, satellite images, and even social media posts. Future systems operated by these organizations are certain to be even more sophisticated than those being used today.
So how can human analysts, eyeballing charts and using simple formulas and statistical tools, possibly compete with such overwhelming firepower? The answer is obvious: they can’t.

In ancient Egypt, Ptolemy I studied Euclid’s Elements (a treatise on plane geometry). When he found it rather difficult, he asked Euclid if there was an easier way to master it. Euclid famously replied Sire, there is no royal road to geometry.
The same is true today: there is no royal road to investment — there is no simple, easy-to-understand scheme, whether it be charting, technical analysis, wave analysis, or anything else, that can consistently achieve above-market-index results. For individual investors especially, nothing can take the place of patient, long-term, diversified, low-fee investment.

https://mathinvestor...s-do-they-work/
A doctor knows a little about a lot. A specialist knows a lot about a little. In time the doctor knows less and less about more and more and the specialist knows more and more about less and less until ultimately the doctor knows nothing about everything and the specialist knows everything about nothing.

#9 George Rowell

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Posted 16 June 2019 - 10:48 PM

Any mathematicians around?

What actually is the chance of the following happening? "Over the last 15 years from 2002 to 2017, only one in 13 large-cap managers, only one in 19 mid-cap managers, and one in 23 small-cap managers were able to outperform their benchmark index."

To my un-trained eye it would be 1/6.5 x 1/9.5 x 1/11.5 x 100% or about 0.038%. Of course there will be some commonality between those results so they all need a weighting factor but I believe the range should start at a low of 0.038% possibility and go upwards.
A doctor knows a little about a lot. A specialist knows a lot about a little. In time the doctor knows less and less about more and more and the specialist knows more and more about less and less until ultimately the doctor knows nothing about everything and the specialist knows everything about nothing.

#10 baw1064

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Posted 16 June 2019 - 11:37 PM

View PostGeorge Rowell, on 16 June 2019 - 10:48 PM, said:

Any mathematicians around?

What actually is the chance of the following happening? "Over the last 15 years from 2002 to 2017, only one in 13 large-cap managers, only one in 19 mid-cap managers, and one in 23 small-cap managers were able to outperform their benchmark index."

To my un-trained eye it would be 1/6.5 x 1/9.5 x 1/11.5 x 100% or about 0.038%. Of course there will be some commonality between those results so they all need a weighting factor but I believe the range should start at a low of 0.038% possibility and go upwards.

Well, you'd expect half to outperform and half to underperform (since essentially they're competing against each other) before you deduct their management fees. The higher the fees, the less likely they'll outperform after fees are deducted. So you can't really answer the question without knowing what they are getting paid to pick stocks.

And why do monkeys throwing darts outperform? Because most of the time, they'll hit a small cap stock with the dart. There are a lot more small caps than large caps, and small caps tend to have higher average returns--and higher risks. Equal weighting of all companies in the S&P 500 also tends to outperform.
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#11 Rich T Bikkies

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Posted 17 June 2019 - 04:29 AM

View PostGeorge Rowell, on 16 June 2019 - 10:48 PM, said:

Any mathematicians around?

What actually is the chance of the following happening? "Over the last 15 years from 2002 to 2017, only one in 13 large-cap managers, only one in 19 mid-cap managers, and one in 23 small-cap managers were able to outperform their benchmark index."

To my un-trained eye it would be 1/6.5 x 1/9.5 x 1/11.5 x 100% or about 0.038%. Of course there will be some commonality between those results so they all need a weighting factor but I believe the range should start at a low of 0.038% possibility and go upwards.

I don't understand your calculation. You seem to be doubling the fraction of each category of manager and multiplying them together, which makes no sense to me. If the three categories of manager were disjoint I'd let A be the total number of managers in each category, B be the total number in the subset who outperformed their benchmark index, and get the percentage 100*B/A. If they were not disjoint I need to see a Venn diagram with counts of the commonalities.

You seem to make a nod to that with your remark about weightings and commonalities, but I think I may be just misunderstanding what you're doing here.
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#12 George Rowell

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Posted 17 June 2019 - 05:26 AM

View PostRich T Bikkies, on 17 June 2019 - 04:29 AM, said:

I don't understand your calculation. You seem to be doubling the fraction of each category of manager and multiplying them together, which makes no sense to me. If the three categories of manager were disjoint I'd let A be the total number of managers in each category, B be the total number in the subset who outperformed their benchmark index, and get the percentage 100*B/A. If they were not disjoint I need to see a Venn diagram with counts of the commonalities.

You seem to make a nod to that with your remark about weightings and commonalities, but I think I may be just misunderstanding what you're doing here.
You can toss my calculation, I was just getting a feel. The managers I assume are working independently on different types of fund. As these funds are different and require different analysis then they may be considered as individual un-linked events. So the chance of them all getting it wrong will be the product of all 3 events, ie 1/9 x 1/13 x 1/23 x 100% = 0.037%

On the big assumption that randomly picking a share will produce a 1 in 2 chance of getting it right (baw1064 has a disrupting theory on this) then randomly choosing stocks would result in getting it right half the time, ie 50%. That being the case then 0.037% tells me to start at the beginning and look for my logical mistake.

If it is right then, or even 3 orders of magnitude (37%) off, then it must point to something systematic in the way these financial advisers work. If, as you say something is overlapping in a Venn diagram it could affect the result but by more than 3 orders of magnitude is a stretch. Frankly it is baffling.
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#13 George Rowell

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 02:40 AM

1) We know 80% of trading is done by machines, with this qualification. I am not sure what effect high frequency trading using digital links to beat other traders by fractions of a uS, have on the available statistics.
3) Financial expert advisers get it wrong 90-95% of the time. To be precise 1 in 23 small cap, 1 in 19 medium cap and 1 in 9 large cap 'experts'.
2) 95% of home trader using 'Expert Advice' software do not just get below the index, they lose money (in separate research).
3) 80% of trading today is done by AI and sophisticated machines.
4) If my previous calculation is accurate, even to within a staggering 3 orders of magnitude, then the likely hood of this NOT being systematic is from 0.037% through 37%.
5) PE calculations do not dictate the share price as was once the case.

This is good enough to assume that the results show a systematic failure to produce a profit by being informed or an expert. Something stares you in the face. So let's ask why, how can this be?

There are two ways to make money share trading. One is day-trading and the other is long-term investment. Private investors do a lot of of day trading. However, the last factor in (5) above reminds us that shares are not behaving entirely according to their intrinsic value. They are behaving in a way that over the last 10 years say has caused private investors and indeed human expert advisers to be wrong - almost all the time.

My attention has been on the small peaks and troughs are serving to systematically create losses for small investor despite their level of knowledge or expert advice. My conclusion is that large buying and selling is happening in short periods of time against market trends that is creating the crests and troughs which cause systematic losses to the small investor.

Maybe I am naive but if you buy shares when logic says you should sell and vici versa is prompting small investors to jump in out-of-phase and delayed, this is market manipulation that damps the small investors profit margins. Simply put behind the noise there is systematic manipulation.

OK, so it happens and the probability of it not happening I believe is less than 0.1%

I am not going to bash my nuts about this, it happens because it can and is perfectly legal and honest (maybe). But what does this mean to the loners and mavericks, a small percentage of investors who do the opposite to what seems obvious when these rapid peaks and troughs occur. A manipulated system will aim at the 90% population and not the 10%. If we can count on the system being manipulated we can do the same and make a profit.

Remember 'The Sting'. The only way they could get the bad guy was BECAUSE he cheated at cards. That maybe the way for a day trader to go. Here is why it must work, the system cannot suck out the money from both the 90% and the 10% simultaneously. Another proviso. If the system stops being manipulated for a period of time then being contrary is a sure way to lose money.
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#14 George Rowell

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 05:56 AM

5 stocks fueling Nasdaq run in 2015

Company-----------Ticker--------YTD %Gain------ Market Value-----Point Impact
Apple-----------------AAPL --------20------------------$775B--------------141
Amazon.com-------AMZN--------22------------------$175B--------------35
Biogen Idec---------BIIB----------20-------------------$96B---------------17
Gilead Sciences---GILD---------11-------------------$155B -------------15
Netflix----------------NFLX---------38-------------------$28B---------------10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------Total-218

Out of a total increase of 211.

I expect 2019 will be similar.
A doctor knows a little about a lot. A specialist knows a lot about a little. In time the doctor knows less and less about more and more and the specialist knows more and more about less and less until ultimately the doctor knows nothing about everything and the specialist knows everything about nothing.

#15 indy

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 06:16 AM

I have a graduate degree in this stuff and everything I actually do is from things I learned before I ever encountered any of that pompous crap, mainly from Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch. Buy the things you know about, look for a good deal (which usually happens when everybody else is panicked), buy for the long term.

Everything else is just noise to distract the unfocused.

#16 George Rowell

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 08:49 AM

That is pretty much the advice given honest brokers and that MAFFIA organisation. Mathematicians against fraudulent financial advice.
A doctor knows a little about a lot. A specialist knows a lot about a little. In time the doctor knows less and less about more and more and the specialist knows more and more about less and less until ultimately the doctor knows nothing about everything and the specialist knows everything about nothing.

#17 Beelzebuddy

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 11:23 AM

low fee index funds
Fear Sells!

Cui bono?

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#18 baw1064

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 12:02 PM

View PostGeorge Rowell, on 13 June 2019 - 04:19 AM, said:

A look at some of the gurus and how many times they got it right. Of course getting it wrong big time once is not reflected here. Look at Jim Cramer, wrong enough to have a TV program.

Guru-------------Forecasts------Accuracy
David Nassar------------44----68.2%
Trading Wire-------------69---- 47.8%
Ken Fisher---------------120-- 66.4%
Don Hays----------------- 85---- 47.1%
Jack Schannep---------- 63---- 65.6%
James Stewart----------- 115--- 47.0%
David Dreman----------- 45---- 64.4%
Richard Band------------ 31---- 46.9%
James Oberweis-------- 35---- 62.9%
Jim Cramer--------------- 62---- 46.8%
Steve Sjuggerud-------- 54---- 62.1%
Gary D. Halbert---------- 93---- 46.4%
Cabot Market Letter---- 50---- 60.4%
Dennis Slothower------- 145--- 45.6%
Louis Navellier----------- 152--- 60.0%
Bill Car---------------------208--- 45.6%
Jason Kelly--------------- 126---- 59.7%
Gary Savage------------- 134---- 45.0%
Dan Sullivan-------------- 115---- 59.1%
Marc Faber--------------- 164---- 44.6%
John Buckingham------- 17---- 58.8%
Jeremy Grantham------- 40---- 44.2%
Richard Moroney-------- 56---- 57.1%
Tim Wood----------------- 182--- 43.8%
Aden Sisters-------------- 40---- 55.8%
Jim Jubak----------------- 144--- 43.4%
Jon Markman------------- 36---- 55.3%
Martin Goldberg---------- 109--- 43.1%
Carl Swenlin--------------- 128--- 54.9%
Price Headley------------- 352--- 42.0%
Bob Doll-------------------- 161--- 54.7%
Linda Schurman----------- 57---- 41.4%
Paul Tracy------------------ 52---- 53.8%
Donald Rowe-------------- 69---- 40.6%
Bob Brinker---------------- 44---- 53.3%
Igor Greenwald----------- 37---- 40.5%
Mark Arbeter-------------- 230--- 53.2%
Nadeem Walayat--------- 67---- 40.5%
Gary Kaltbaum------------ 144--- 53.1%
Bob Hoye------------------- 57---- 40.0%
Robert Drach-------------- 19---- 52.6%
John Mauldin-------------- 211--- 39.9%
Don Luskin----------------- 201--- 52.0%
Jim Puplava---------------- 43---- 39.5%
Laszlo Birinyi--------------- 27---- 51.9%
Comstock Partners-------- 224--- 37.9%
Tobin Smith---------------- 281--- 50.2%
Bill Fleckenstein----------- 148--- 37.3%
James Dines -------------- 39 ---- 50.0%
Gary Shilling--------------- 41 ---- 36.6%
Ben Zacks------------------ 32 ---- 50.0%
Richard Russell------------ 168 --- 36.5%
Doug Kass------------------ 186 --- 49.2%
Mike Paulenoff------------- 12 ---- 35.7%
Richard Rhodes------------ 42 ---- 48.8%
Abby Joseph Cohen------- 56 ---- 35.1%
Bernie Schaeffer----------- 81 ---- 48.8%
Peter Eliades---------------- 29 ---- 34.5%
Clif Droke-------------------- 100 --- 48.6%
Steven Jon Kaplan--------- 104 --- 32.1%
Stephen Leeb--------------- 27 ---- 48.3%
Curt Hesler------------------ 97 --- 32.1%
S&P Outlook ---------------- 145 --- 48.3%
Robert McHugh------------- 132 --- 28.6%
Carl Futia-------------------- 98 ---- 48.2%
Steve Saville---------------- 35 ---- 23.7%
Charles Biderman---------- 48 ---- 47.9%
Robert Prechter------------- 24 ---- 20.8%


So I'm too lazy to put all the numbers into a spreadsheet to come up with an overall accuracy of all predictions made by all experts. Did someone calculate this?
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#19 Bact PhD

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Posted 18 June 2019 - 04:14 PM

View PostGeorge Rowell, on 13 June 2019 - 04:19 AM, said:

A look at some of the gurus and how many times they got it right. Of course getting it wrong big time once is not reflected here. Look at Jim Cramer, wrong enough to have a TV program.

Guru-------------Forecasts------Accuracy
David Nassar------------44----68.2%
Trading Wire-------------69---- 47.8%
Ken Fisher---------------120-- 66.4%
Don Hays----------------- 85---- 47.1%
Jack Schannep---------- 63---- 65.6%
James Stewart----------- 115--- 47.0%
David Dreman----------- 45---- 64.4%
Richard Band------------ 31---- 46.9%
James Oberweis-------- 35---- 62.9%
Jim Cramer--------------- 62---- 46.8%
Steve Sjuggerud-------- 54---- 62.1%
Gary D. Halbert---------- 93---- 46.4%
Cabot Market Letter---- 50---- 60.4%
Dennis Slothower------- 145--- 45.6%
Louis Navellier----------- 152--- 60.0%
Bill Car---------------------208--- 45.6%
Jason Kelly--------------- 126---- 59.7%
Gary Savage------------- 134---- 45.0%
Dan Sullivan-------------- 115---- 59.1%
Marc Faber--------------- 164---- 44.6%
John Buckingham------- 17---- 58.8%
Jeremy Grantham------- 40---- 44.2%
Richard Moroney-------- 56---- 57.1%
Tim Wood----------------- 182--- 43.8%
Aden Sisters-------------- 40---- 55.8%
Jim Jubak----------------- 144--- 43.4%
Jon Markman------------- 36---- 55.3%
Martin Goldberg---------- 109--- 43.1%
Carl Swenlin--------------- 128--- 54.9%
Price Headley------------- 352--- 42.0%
Bob Doll-------------------- 161--- 54.7%
Linda Schurman----------- 57---- 41.4%
Paul Tracy------------------ 52---- 53.8%
Donald Rowe-------------- 69---- 40.6%
Bob Brinker---------------- 44---- 53.3%
Igor Greenwald----------- 37---- 40.5%
Mark Arbeter-------------- 230--- 53.2%
Nadeem Walayat--------- 67---- 40.5%
Gary Kaltbaum------------ 144--- 53.1%
Bob Hoye------------------- 57---- 40.0%
Robert Drach-------------- 19---- 52.6%
John Mauldin-------------- 211--- 39.9%
Don Luskin----------------- 201--- 52.0%
Jim Puplava---------------- 43---- 39.5%
Laszlo Birinyi--------------- 27---- 51.9%
Comstock Partners-------- 224--- 37.9%
Tobin Smith---------------- 281--- 50.2%
Bill Fleckenstein----------- 148--- 37.3%
James Dines -------------- 39 ---- 50.0%
Gary Shilling--------------- 41 ---- 36.6%
Ben Zacks------------------ 32 ---- 50.0%
Richard Russell------------ 168 --- 36.5%
Doug Kass------------------ 186 --- 49.2%
Mike Paulenoff------------- 12 ---- 35.7%
Richard Rhodes------------ 42 ---- 48.8%
Abby Joseph Cohen------- 56 ---- 35.1%
Bernie Schaeffer----------- 81 ---- 48.8%
Peter Eliades---------------- 29 ---- 34.5%
Clif Droke-------------------- 100 --- 48.6%
Steven Jon Kaplan--------- 104 --- 32.1%
Stephen Leeb--------------- 27 ---- 48.3%
Curt Hesler------------------ 97 --- 32.1%
S&P Outlook ---------------- 145 --- 48.3%
Robert McHugh------------- 132 --- 28.6%
Carl Futia-------------------- 98 ---- 48.2%
Steve Saville---------------- 35 ---- 23.7%
Charles Biderman---------- 48 ---- 47.9%
Robert Prechter------------- 24 ---- 20.8%


Source?

I would be curious to know what time range was employed for this analysis -- one quarter, one year, the last 5 years, the last 15 years (this last would incorporate the Great Recession), or at least some time frame that incorporated both "up" and "down" times in the market. Telling, though, that no single guru "hits" better than 70% of the time.

View Postbaw1064, on 18 June 2019 - 12:02 PM, said:

So I'm too lazy to put all the numbers into a spreadsheet to come up with an overall accuracy of all predictions made by all experts. Did someone calculate this?

Maybe the more accurate is median accuracy, i.e., do the gurus, once ranked top-to-bottom, do better than 50% (coin-flipping):

Sorted, here is how it looks:
David Nassar------------44----68.2%
Ken Fisher---------------120-- 66.4%
Jack Schannep---------- 63---- 65.6%
David Dreman----------- 45---- 64.4%
James Oberweis-------- 35---- 62.9%
Steve Sjuggerud-------- 54---- 62.1%
Cabot Market Letter---- 50---- 60.4%
Louis Navellier----------- 152--- 60.0%
Jason Kelly--------------- 126---- 59.7%
Dan Sullivan-------------- 115---- 59.1%
John Buckingham------- 17---- 58.8%
Richard Moroney-------- 56---- 57.1%
Aden Sisters-------------- 40---- 55.8%
Jon Markman------------- 36---- 55.3%
Carl Swenlin--------------- 128--- 54.9%
Bob Doll-------------------- 161--- 54.7%
Paul Tracy------------------ 52---- 53.8%
Bob Brinker---------------- 44---- 53.3%
Mark Arbeter-------------- 230--- 53.2%
Gary Kaltbaum------------ 144--- 53.1%
Robert Drach-------------- 19---- 52.6%
Don Luskin----------------- 201--- 52.0%
Laszlo Birinyi--------------- 27---- 51.9%
Tobin Smith---------------- 281--- 50.2%
James Dines -------------- 39 ---- 50.0%
Ben Zacks------------------ 32 ---- 50.0%
***Below didn’t do better than flipping a coin***
Doug Kass------------------ 186 --- 49.2%
Bernie Schaeffer----------- 81 ---- 48.8%
Richard Rhodes------------ 42 ---- 48.8%
Clif Droke-------------------- 100 --- 48.6%
S&P Outlook ---------------- 145 --- 48.3%
Stephen Leeb--------------- 27 ---- 48.3%
Carl Futia-------------------- 98 ---- 48.2%
Charles Biderman---------- 48 ---- 47.9%
Trading Wire-------------69---- 47.8%
Don Hays----------------- 85---- 47.1%
James Stewart----------- 115--- 47.0%
Richard Band------------ 31---- 46.9%
Jim Cramer--------------- 62---- 46.8%
Gary D. Halbert---------- 93---- 46.4%
Dennis Slothower------- 145--- 45.6%
Bill Car---------------------208--- 45.6%
Gary Savage------------- 134---- 45.0%
Marc Faber--------------- 164---- 44.6%
Jeremy Grantham------- 40---- 44.2%
Tim Wood----------------- 182--- 43.8%
Jim Jubak----------------- 144--- 43.4%
Martin Goldberg---------- 109--- 43.1%
Price Headley------------- 352--- 42.0%
Linda Schurman----------- 57---- 41.4%
Donald Rowe-------------- 69---- 40.6%
Igor Greenwald----------- 37---- 40.5%
Nadeem Walayat--------- 67---- 40.5%
Bob Hoye------------------- 57---- 40.0%
John Mauldin-------------- 211--- 39.9%
Jim Puplava---------------- 43---- 39.5%
Comstock Partners-------- 224--- 37.9%
Bill Fleckenstein----------- 148--- 37.3%
Gary Shilling--------------- 41 ---- 36.6%
Richard Russell------------ 168 --- 36.5%
Mike Paulenoff------------- 12 ---- 35.7%
Abby Joseph Cohen------- 56 ---- 35.1%
Peter Eliades---------------- 29 ---- 34.5%
Steven Jon Kaplan--------- 104 --- 32.1%
Curt Hesler------------------ 97 --- 32.1%
Robert McHugh------------- 132 --- 28.6%
Steve Saville---------------- 35 ---- 23.7%
Robert Prechter------------- 24 ---- 20.8%
Total number of gurus: 68
Only 26/68 performed at 50% or better.
34th from the top = 47.9%; 34th from bottom = 47.8%
Median accuracy among this set of gurus = 47.85%

Not abysmal, but considering these are supposed to be "experts"...
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Posted 18 June 2019 - 08:19 PM

View PostBact PhD, on 18 June 2019 - 04:14 PM, said:

Source?


Total number of gurus: 68
Only 26/68 performed at 50% or better.
34th from the top = 47.9%; 34th from bottom = 47.8%
Median accuracy among this set of gurus = 47.85%

Not abysmal, but considering these are supposed to be "experts"...
https://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/
A doctor knows a little about a lot. A specialist knows a lot about a little. In time the doctor knows less and less about more and more and the specialist knows more and more about less and less until ultimately the doctor knows nothing about everything and the specialist knows everything about nothing.





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