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The INF Treaty is history


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#61 George Rowell

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 12:38 AM

View Postindy, on 10 February 2019 - 07:02 AM, said:

And this squares with Crimea and Ukraine how? What the Russian military may or may not understand regarding their own capabilities and limitations in the 'event of a prolonged conflict with an adversary' has little to nothing to do with the ambitions, aggression, or desires of the man who tells them what to do and when to do it unchecked by any oversight or safeguards. The problem with Russia is the structure of their civilian government, and in particular the man who runs the military, not the military itself.
Putin is very considered with his approach, a tactician. He is never impulsive bad mouthed or clueless and never tweets. The problem with America is the structure of the civilian government that allows lobbyists from the MIC, AIPAC and others undue influence. If you removed lobbyists and limited election funding then American government be nigh on perfect. God, I wish that was the case. That would MAGA.

As it is the political process has been shanghaied by special interests. Many studies show the American political process is influenced by lobbyists, the mega rich and large corporations in that order, with organized labor and citizens having no effect whatsoever.
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People talk about assassinations in Russia, like one of Putin's political opponents getting gunned down walking near the Kremlin. That Putin ordered that does not pass even an elementary quality check for me. There are hundreds of political groups and mobsters in the Ukraine and Russia, and it is awash with CIA/DIA money too. Victoria Nuland said State spent 5 billion promoting democracy there. J-CA and I went into some detail with this one, J-CA claiming it was all/mostly legit. I certainly do not want to get into that again but 5 billion is a lot of money trickling down and these anti-Russian mobs have their hands out.

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#62 baw1064

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 12:48 AM

I'd be more likely to believe you if there were also instances of Putin's allies dying under suspicious circumstances. But I can't think of any off hand. So while correlation doesn't prove causality, an amount of correlation which is statistically implausible under the null hypothesis and doesn't bear any good alternative explanations, is "interesting".
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#63 George Rowell

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 01:05 AM

View Postbaw1064, on 11 February 2019 - 12:48 AM, said:

I'd be more likely to believe you if there were also instances of Putin's allies dying under suspicious circumstances. But I can't think of any off hand. So while correlation doesn't prove causality, an amount of correlation which is statistically implausible under the null hypothesis and doesn't bear any good alternative explanations, is "interesting".
Why would the DIA pay for Putin's allies to be hit? That would be counter productive.
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#64 George Rowell

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 01:39 AM

I believe limiting special interests would MAGA, very quickly, but we are drifting off-topic here. China is the key to the US and Russia leaving the INF. I think the US and Russia are on the same page and disagreement is for show only. Russia recently invited all concerned parties to a demonstration showing that the 9M729 missile complies to the INF. Nobody from Nato turned up. The Russians point out that the 9M729 missile is based on a previous missile that is in accordance with the treaty, it only has a few extra percent of fuel to compensate for a much heavier navigation system. I believe it too!

That nobody of importance turned up shows that whether the (9M729 is in compliance or not is immaterial. The worst case is NATO prove it is in compliance! I doubt Russia and the US want that. It is a facade. If anybody was serious they would have gone there. So Russia remains in 'noble' compliance and the States and NATO are not forced to agree. That is what they both want. The key is minimizing the fears of the American and Chinese public. NATO and Beijing know what is really happening. Beijing have played 3 kingdoms games for centuries. Everybody is playing games for Joe public.
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#65 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 07:27 AM

View PostHockeyDon, on 10 February 2019 - 12:09 PM, said:

This is ignoring Putin's typical behavior during his own elections, where his people are blatant about stuffing the ballot boxes in plain sight. There have been enough reports of this that it shouldn't be a surprise the Crimea vote went about the same way.

The surprise was that joining Russia got only 93% of the vote, instead of the usual 100%-plus.
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#66 D. C. Sessions

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 07:30 AM

View PostGeorge Rowell, on 10 February 2019 - 10:30 PM, said:

Sir Isaac Newtons V*V/R, ω *ω * R I actually remembered that stuff, like 55 years ago.

That's centripedal force. The angular momentum is ωmr2 . Since it's conserved, the angular velocity drops off as the square of radius.
The way a lot of catastrophes happen is that X doesn't occur because there are safeguards in place, therefore people assume X isn't a worry and they remove the safeguards. Then X happens.
— Nate Silver
"Robots aren't the problem. Capitalism is." -- Last words of Stephen Hawking.
These days, "libertarian" is just a euphemism for a Nazi who's afraid to commit.
"If you're not outraged, you're not paying attention." -- Heather Heyer
"I'd rather have my child, but by golly, if I gotta give her up, we're gonna make it count." -- Her mother
"Your purpose, then, plainly stated, is that you will destroy the Government, unless you be allowed to construe and enforce the Constitution as you please, on all points in dispute between you and us. You will rule or ruin in all events." -- some RINO

#67 indy

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 07:49 AM

The practical effect, as far as I understand it, is that missiles fired westward will have less initial inertial velocity and an increased flight angle as compared to those fired eastward (assuming constant fuel capacity and target distance). The shorter the distance to the target, the more you must increase the flight angle. So, firing from Russia toward Eastern Europe will result in a very steep flight angle.

#68 indy

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 07:57 AM

View PostGeorge Rowell, on 10 February 2019 - 10:18 PM, said:

That a fact? Of course if they took the independent route then they would be free to join the Ukraine in theory anyway. Russia has far too much to lose if the Crimea became hostile to let that happen, come sanctions, war or pestilence.

The vote was always predetermined and would have gone Russia's way even without the vote rigging. A large population of Crimea are Russian pensioners, whose pensions were explicitly threatened if the vote was for anything except 'join Russia'.

#69 George Rowell

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 08:09 AM

View Postindy, on 10 February 2019 - 12:36 PM, said:

I'm still waiting on the punch line to drop in this theory. If one accepted your premise that it's the CIA or whatever killing off Russians, not only in Russia proper, but around the globe, in order to make Putin look bad, what is the purpose? Winning a propaganda war isn't an end, it's a means to an end. If, by your own hand, you slice the throat of everybody and anybody who might succeed Putin, where does it lead? What's the point of making him look bad? Who is benefiting and why?
Come on Indy. We are in a propaganda war to win hearts and minds. Perhaps you think we aren't. Propaganda lets government control people and lets lobbies control the government. Boeing alone are in for 1.5 Trillion tax payers money for the F35. The so called cold war-dividend sent arms sales spiraling down. The MIC did not like that at all, it thrives on hate. Now propaganda is centered on Russia but the real motive is to develop arms to counter China. I think Moscow understands this. It is a three kingdoms scenario.
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#70 George Rowell

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 08:10 AM

View PostD. C. Sessions, on 11 February 2019 - 07:27 AM, said:

The surprise was that joining Russia got only 93% of the vote, instead of the usual 100%-plus.
Won't happen again.
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#71 George Rowell

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 08:16 AM

View PostD. C. Sessions, on 11 February 2019 - 07:30 AM, said:

That's centripedal force. The angular momentum is ωmr2 . Since it's conserved, the angular velocity drops off as the square of radius.
Yep, your right :) :) Ice skaters!
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#72 George Rowell

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 08:58 AM

View PostD. C. Sessions, on 11 February 2019 - 07:30 AM, said:

That's centripedal force. The angular momentum is ωmr2 . Since it's conserved, the angular velocity drops off as the square of radius.
Angular velocity * moment of inertia.

I had forgotten about angular momentum, just looked it up. Shit. I need to get a part time teaching job, remember quick that way. I did that once before for a friends daughter who wanted to go to uni. Had a great few months and it brought me back to scratch for the basic stuff.
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#73 Traveler

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 11:35 AM

View PostD. C. Sessions, on 10 February 2019 - 02:38 PM, said:

I starts with the angular momentum of the surface. The the higher you are the less the same angular momentum translates into in terms of angular velocity, so you fall behind. It's actually an effect large enough to make a difference even for the little ones they launch down the road at White Sands (pretty easy to calculate, actually.)
That makes sense. angular velocity would have to increase to keep up. Forgot about that. Duh. Its nice to be able to be stupid here. And get edumacated.
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#74 LFC

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 02:02 PM

Oh, boy. Here we go!

Quote

The U.S. military has test-fired a new kind of nuclear-capable cruise missile. A weapon that, just 16 days earlier, was banned from the American and Russian arsenals under a 1987 treaty.

The successful test on Sunday of an intermediate-range, ground-launched Tomahawk cruise missile reintroduces a previously defunct type of atomic weapon, effectively reversing 32 years of successful arms-control. It also appears to confirm Russia’s fears about American intentions as Washington and Moscow backslide into Cold War-style mutual mistrust.

The Pentagon tried to portray the Sunday launch in California as just a boring trial. “Data collected and lessons learned from this test will inform [the Defense Department’s] development of future intermediate-range capabilities,” the military stated.

But to Russia, the trial launch was a huge insult. It was what Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear expert with the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, called the “arms-control equivalent of a ‘Murica gif,’” a jingoistic internet meme featuring, say, a bald eagle firing a machine gun. And it’s likely to raise further the already elevated risk of nuclear war.

The test-firing involved a ground-launched version of the Tomahawk cruise missile, for decades a staple of the Pentagon’s high-tech arsenal.

Most Tomahawks are non-nuclear, however. The military dismantled the ground-launched, nuclear models back in 1991 in order to comply with the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty that U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev negotiated in the mid-1980s and President Donald Trump finally ditched this month.

The INF treaty banned from Europe all nuclear-tipped missile with ranges between 310 and 3,400 miles. The U.S. and Soviet governments considered these small, quick-striking missiles —1,500 on the Soviet side and 400 on the American side in 1987— particularly destabilizing and more likely than larger, farther-flying and slower-reacting rockets to trigger atomic Armageddon.

But a few years ago the INF began to fray. In 2011, the Obama administration warned that new, intermediate-range nuclear-armed cruise missiles—under development in Russia since 2008—could violate the terms of the treaty. In mid-2013 the U.S. State Department first raised the issue with the Kremlin. Later the same year, the White House formally announced that Russia was in violation of the accord.

U.S. moves helped to accelerate Russian developments. In 2015 the Pentagon began installing so-called “Aegis Ashore” missile defenses in Romania and Poland. The non-nuclear SM-3 missile-interceptors are designed to hit ballistic missiles launched by Iran at the United States.

But many Russians believed the United States planned to secretly add nuclear weapons to the European missile-defense sites, all in violation of the INF treaty and as preparation for an atomic sneak-attack on the motherland. Robert Gates, defense secretary under Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush, had warned about that dangerous perception as far back as 2009.

The Russians’ belief wasn’t unfounded. The SM-3 sites in Romania and Poland feature land-based versions of the U.S. Navy’s Mk. 41 vertical-launch system, a kind of generic metal box that can launch almost kind of missile that physically can fit inside it. Navy ships fire non-nuclear Tomahawks from Mk. 41 launchers.

It always has been entirely possible for the Pentagon to equip the European sites with nuclear-tipped Tomahawks. And the Russians always have known it. “Although it was never U.S. intent to slip intermediate-range nukes through the back door of Aegis Ashore, the Russians were justifiably concerned,” Bruce Blair, a Princeton University nuclear expert, told The Daily Beast.

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#75 Traveler

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Posted 22 August 2019 - 11:12 AM

Quite simply, fuck the Russians. They broke the treaty. We just responded. This entire escalation is on them. And they kvetch?

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But a few years ago the INF began to fray.
Like it was some tablecloth? Talk about MSM mealy mouthingo.
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#76 LFC

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Posted 22 August 2019 - 11:33 AM

View PostTraveler, on 22 August 2019 - 11:12 AM, said:

Quite simply, fuck the Russians. They broke the treaty. We just responded. This entire escalation is on them. And they kvetch?

It's to their domestic political advantage to violate the treaty and then blame it on us. Putin is a complete f***-up when it comes to making things better for his people. The only tool he has, and it's been effectively used by despots for centuries if not millennia, is national pride and feelings of persecution by some outside force. There's no upside in this for us but domestically there is for Putin. (Xi still uses it too but it seems to be wearing thin in China.)
" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#77 LFC

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Posted 23 August 2019 - 03:09 PM

And there it is. Putin gets to look tough in front of the cameras and claim justification when he starts meddling in places like Poland and Romania. Trump was played for a fool and handed Putin exactly what he wanted.

Quote

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday he has ordered the military to prepare a “symmetric response” after Washington tested a formerly banned missile.

Putin said he had ordered an analysis of “the level of threat for our country created by the actions of the US and to take comprehensive measures to prepare a symmetric response”.


Quote

Putin said at a government meeting that the test confirmed prior suspicions that the United States had planned to place banned weapons in Europe.

He said Moscow was against placement of the launchers in Poland in Romania as part of a missile defense system, but the US denied they could be used offensively to launch Tomahawks.

“Now the fact of the violation is clear, and it’s useless to deny it,” Putin said. “The question is, how do we know what will be placed in Romania and Poland?”

Washington’s “true intentions”, he said, are to “deploy formerly banned weapons in various regions of the world”.

But placing them in Europe as well as in Asia “touches upon our basic interests, since it is close to Russian borders”.

" 'Individual conscience' means that women only get contraceptives if their employers, their physicians, their pharmacists, their husbands and/or fathers, pastors, and possibly their mayors, Governors, State Secretaries of Health, Congressmen, Senators, and President all agree that in that particular case they're justifiable." --D.C. Sessions

"That's the problem with being implacable foes - no one has any incentive to treat you as anything more than an obstacle to be overcome."

"The 'Road to Serfdom' is really all right turns." --Progressive Whisperer

""The GOP ... where every accusation is also a confession." --Progressive Whisperer

#78 Traveler

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Posted 23 August 2019 - 03:52 PM

Then why the fuck did he put them in first?
"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened."-- Winston Churchill
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" Voltaire





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